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February 3-4 significant icing event for the interior, some sleet/snow possible. Coast mostly rain.


NJwx85
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9 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Definitely getting an inch, roads fully covered and snowing, 26 

If only this torch could've peaked at 42-43 instead of 50s. This snow that's left will be hard as cement. But definitely a nice surprise here. 

Also you being a couple towns east of me might help you out. I have a decent coating  but I'm doubting that much here. 

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The GFS was the only model that really struggled with its cold bias.   All the other guidance had the most icing up toward Ulster and Orange Counties.  The NYC and Long Island areas generally need the cold to be in place when the freezing rain begins for significant icing build up on trees and power lines. Models were signaling for days that we would start out in the 40s and 50s with rain before any changeover. Past major icing events near the coast generally began with the temperatures below freezing.

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44 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Many dodged a bullet with this one. Could have been a much different story if the precip with the second low was more intense and widespread.

Agreed. I fortunately had no issues here but a mere 30 miles north is a disaster area centered on the City of Kingston in Ulster County where they had .6 of radial ice. Central Hudson is the power company up there and has 90,990 customers with 44,044 customers without power right now. 680 crews out there this weekend trying to restore power. 

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29 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agreed. I fortunately had no issues here but a mere 30 miles north is a disaster area centered on the City of Kingston in Ulster County where they had .6 of radial ice. Central Hudson is the power company up there and has 90,990 customers with 44,044 customers without power right now. 680 crews out there this weekend trying to restore power. 

Yeah, it’s always rough when areas that are heavily wooded get that much ice. The Long Beach area didn’t have any major power outages in Jan 94 with .5 to .75 of radial ice. We just don’t have that many tall trees near the beach. While the SPC HREF Fram had a cold bias south of 287, it really honed in on those hard hit interior areas with the blue .5+ of ice from the 12z Thursday forecast.


476297FA-6A4B-45E6-99FA-580F2C50624F.thumb.jpeg.47996740d5207cc7b1d16f0ee9f86803.jpeg

 

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s always rough when areas that are heavily wooded get that much ice. The Long Beach area didn’t have any major power outages in Jan 94 with .5 to .75 of radial ice. We just don’t have that many tall trees near the beach. While the SPC HREF Fram had a cold bias south of 287, it really honed in on those hard hit interior areas with the blue .5+ of ice from the 12z Thursday forecast.


476297FA-6A4B-45E6-99FA-580F2C50624F.thumb.jpeg.47996740d5207cc7b1d16f0ee9f86803.jpeg

 

Agreed. I saw video that Central Hudson posted yesterday of trees falling into the lines as they were on scene trying to repair them. Not a good situation. 

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13 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agreed. I saw video that Central Hudson posted yesterday of trees falling into the lines as they were on scene trying to repair them. Not a good situation. 

I guess we are lucky that there hasn’t been a further south version of Jan 98 closer to our northern zones. 
 

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/IceStorm1998.pdf

This storm had historic impacts across northern New York, northern New England and southeast Canada due to the prolonged duration of the event (both meteorological and recovery period) and the magnitude of ice accretion and precipitation amounts. The most famous meteorological aspect of this storm was the devastating and destructive ice accumulation of more than 3 inches (75mm) in portions of northern New York and southeast Canada, with heavy ice accumulation across northern New England as well. Another major aspect of this storm was the extremely heavy precipitation across the region, including over 5 inches of rain that caused major flooding in portions of western New York.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I guess we are lucky that there hasn’t been a further south version of Jan 98 closer to our northern zones. 
 

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/IceStorm1998.pdf

This storm had historic impacts across northern New York, northern New England and southeast Canada due to the prolonged duration of the event (both meteorological and recovery period) and the magnitude of ice accretion and precipitation amounts. The most famous meteorological aspect of this storm was the devastating and destructive ice accumulation of more than 3 inches (75mm) in portions of northern New York and southeast Canada, with heavy ice accumulation across northern New England as well. Another major aspect of this storm was the extremely heavy precipitation across the region, including over 5 inches of rain that caused major flooding in portions of western New York.

Yeah…I want no part of that. I remember following that online as these boards were in their infancy. As I recall, much of that was freezing drizzle which really allows for accretion.   That might be mentioned in that link, I’ll have to read up on it again. 

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3 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Agreed. I fortunately had no issues here but a mere 30 miles north is a disaster area centered on the City of Kingston in Ulster County where they had .6 of radial ice. Central Hudson is the power company up there and has 90,990 customers with 44,044 customers without power right now. 680 crews out there this weekend trying to restore power. 

Was never so happy to see sleet yesterday morning. Neighbors to the North in Ulster County are not so lucky. Time to start looking at ways to deal with the failing infrastructure.  Burying all lines sounds good, but would be an extremely painful slow, and very expensive process.   Option two.  Clear cut trees below power lines levels to help reduce these power loss risks.   Where I visit Florida, all power lines do not have a tree or tree branch in any distance

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

I guess we are lucky that there hasn’t been a further south version of Jan 98 closer to our northern zones. 
 

 

https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/events/IceStorm1998.pdf

This storm had historic impacts across northern New York, northern New England and southeast Canada due to the prolonged duration of the event (both meteorological and recovery period) and the magnitude of ice accretion and precipitation amounts. The most famous meteorological aspect of this storm was the devastating and destructive ice accumulation of more than 3 inches (75mm) in portions of northern New York and southeast Canada, with heavy ice accumulation across northern New England as well. Another major aspect of this storm was the extremely heavy precipitation across the region, including over 5 inches of rain that caused major flooding in portions of western New York.

I wouldnt mind another Jan 1994 that was awesome.  So was VD07.  I'd prefer snow of course.  But I dont want it to -ever- rain in winter.

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5 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s always rough when areas that are heavily wooded get that much ice. The Long Beach area didn’t have any major power outages in Jan 94 with .5 to .75 of radial ice. We just don’t have that many tall trees near the beach. While the SPC HREF Fram had a cold bias south of 287, it really honed in on those hard hit interior areas with the blue .5+ of ice from the 12z Thursday forecast.


476297FA-6A4B-45E6-99FA-580F2C50624F.thumb.jpeg.47996740d5207cc7b1d16f0ee9f86803.jpeg

 

two options, either chop down the trees near power lines or bury the power lines.

 

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