wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Based on 731 Upton update, I'm thinking that the nam is leading the way with regards to the front clearing long Island earlier versus the hrrr this afternoon. Ahead of schedule essentially. However, for locations behind the cold front across the interior, such as Northeast NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley and SW CT, there will be more northerly flow developing at the surface up through around 3 kft above the surface. This will make for a rapid cooling trend for temperatures but with the SW flow aloft above 3kft (up to about 10-15kft) still bringing around 3 to 7 degree C temperatures, the set up will lead to freezing rain. In some cases where the low level temperature has cooled more and there is a greater depth low level sub-freezing layer, sleet will form. Much of the forecast will depend on the timing of the cold front because 1-2 hours after the cold front passage, temperatures are forecast to abruptly drop by at least several degrees. NAM is showing earlier frontal passage by late morning exiting southeast of Long Island while the HRRR is later by early afternoon exiting southeast of Long Island. The forecast is in between the two aforementioned model solutions. Freezing rain is expected be ongoing this morning across the Lower Hudson Valley, Northeast NJ and Southwest CT. Rain will be the precipitation type elsewhere. The transition of the thermal profile after the cold front is a decrease in the temperature by around 10 to 15 degrees within the first 1 to 1.5 kft above the surface 1 to 2 hours after the cold frontal passage. Then a further decrease in the surface temperature is forecast and increase in depth of the sub- freezing layer up to near 3 to 4 kft above the surface over the rest of the day. This set up here gives freezing rain eventually to all locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Yup. Although temperatures dropped they ain't going to freezing until well after precip ends. Only areas well N&W will. Yep. We got down to 35 here and that seems to be it for now. Temps north of here are above freezing for a good distance. Snow coverage here down to mostly piles in any exposed area. My backyard is covered but looks very sad lol. Big melt/slush pool on one side. It got wrecked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 4, 2022 Author Share Posted February 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yup. Although temperatures dropped they ain't going to freezing until well after precip ends. Only areas well N&W will. Rockland County isn’t well N&W. You can see the GWB from the Tappan Zee bridge on a clear day. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Unlikely given the radar, maybe .2 to .3 left of QPF plus the ground is wet and warm. Need temps into the mid 20s for any real impact The misinformation you give can actually be dangerous to some. I’m only 50 miles NNW of midtown and it’s 27 degrees and everything is covered in ice. I could ice skate on my driveway and tree limbs are already bending from the weight. Can’t believe I still have power. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: The misinformation you give can actually be dangerous to some. I’m only 50 miles NNW of midtown and it’s 27 degrees and everything is covered in ice. I could ice skate on my driveway and tree limbs are already bending from the weight. Can’t believe I still have power. Post pics of the damage, non event for the majority of posters here so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Temp dropped to the 30s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Yep. We got down to 35 here and that seems to be it for now. Temps north of here are above freezing for a good distance. Snow coverage here down to mostly piles in any exposed area. My backyard is covered but looks very sad lol. Big melt/slush pool on one side. It got wrecked. NWS doesn’t have up dropping to freezing until 1 pm. So now we just cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 32 in Yonkers looking at pws map places south east towards city are between 33-35 it's not terribly far off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Post pics of the damage, non event for the majority of posters here so far Great. Its an event for some, so for those not getting an event, move onnnnnnn. 6 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Just noticed it blew about 43 mph this morning, didn't expect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Down to 36 here in Brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Post pics of the damage, non event for the majority of posters here so far Honestly your posts are ridiculous and all about your backyard. No wonder why you been 5 posted. @Rjay@BxEngine i know this is banter but please leave it 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 16 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: The misinformation you give can actually be dangerous to some. I’m only 50 miles NNW of midtown and it’s 27 degrees and everything is covered in ice. I could ice skate on my driveway and tree limbs are already bending from the weight. Can’t believe I still have power. The limbs on some trees are bending here too. Also a slight occasional breeze is moving them around. Not going to be good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Little delay but now the temps are starting to drop faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Post pics of the damage, non event for the majority of posters here so far Yes as soon as I can. Would you like any other pictures, my wife, kids, my car? I'll send anything else you want that will help you justify what you believe. Don't hold your breath 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 25 with a mix of ZR and sleet. Very icy and about an inch of sleet. Schools closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Not 100% sure but I think I see and hear some sleet mixing in now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Weather underground pws station data is not updating on the history section. Now that's a pain when trying to track the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Side note, I really miss the hourly temp change on meteobridge. I'm pretty sure the older version had it, but they did away with it along with some other cool things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 And definitely feels colder now then it did back at 8:00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 60 mins ago it was 53. Now it's 41.0 Love these temp dumps. Don't see them all that often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 30 degrees when I looked a few minutes ago,,,,,New City here no ice yet but it's not going to be long now especially if and when the temp goes lower,,,,,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DreamBig Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 In Rockland County (Suffern), and leave and branches beginning to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 I am in Montvale waiting for any icing. So far nothing. Temp 33 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Plain rain in Woodbridge and am hoping it stays that way until the precip moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Nice cold rain. Get used to that for the next few months if SSWE happens in March. Temps stalled at 38F. The timing was not in our favor, had this occurred in the evening more places would've seen icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Starting to get that icy feeling in haverstraw..30 with sleet and freezing rain.. trees are starting to glaze over as well as driveway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 I'm pretty sure the temp on my Echo devices are fed from the Westchester County Airport even though it says "Tarrytown", but in the past half hour, it dropped from 42 to 28. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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