crossbowftw3 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s believable that somebody can pick up quite a bit of freezing rain with the battle between such a strong Arctic high and SE Ridge. And then snow on top of that is a recipe for disaster. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GFS was first to pick up on eastward shift last week (albeit to the extreme) Let’s see if it’s onto something here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I definitely believe the ice storm potential somewhere with a huge high and overrunning coming in from the south. Hopefully it can nose south a little more so we get snow/sleet or stays north and it rains. I have no interest in 0.5" of ice that would create huge power issues. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: I would be happy with the warmer Euro and GEM for our area since I am not a big fan of ice. Yes, rain over ZR anyday. We will have our snow chances next week and beyond. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: I would be happy with the warmer Euro and GEM for our area since I am not a big fan of ice. I’m wondering if this will continue pressing south in the coming days. That’s some nasty confluence and high pressure trying to push down, and often at this lead time models don’t see the surface cold air. That upper air chart screams ice storm somewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: I’m wondering if this will continue pressing south in the coming days. That’s some nasty confluence and high pressure trying to push down, and often at this lead time models don’t see the surface cold air. That upper air chart screams ice storm somewhere. That depends if the Arctic high builds to our north fast enough. On the warmer models it builds in as the wave approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Even though sleet is obviously mixed in the pink, that would accumulate. Pretty much a weenie GFS run overall. I wouldn’t mind sleet at all this time. It’ll get pounded into the snowpack and freeze it into cement. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said: And then snow on top of that is a recipe for disaster. It appears that a crippling ice storm is going to hit part of the country. Fortunately, the tri-state area looks to be in better shape - for now. Given the strength of the HP, I would not rule such drastic SE shifts as the 06z at this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, USCG RS said: It appears that a crippling ice storm is going to hit part of the country. Fortunately, the tri-state area looks to be in better shape - for now. Given the strength of the HP, I would not rule such drastic SE shifts as the 06z at this time. Better shape in terms of warmer rain or colder snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Better shape in terms of warmer rain or colder snow? Seems like another tick or two south should get us out of the ice zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Better shape in terms of warmer rain or colder snow? To me - the odds favor either plain rain OR snow, at this time. Long way to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Historically speaking these big ice events hardly ever work out for our area but the setup is more like you would normally get in the Southern plains or the Osarks with the strong high to the North and a positively tilted trough with massive amounts of overrunning. The cold air isn’t retreating either, unlike most of our ice threats. Could be very nasty, especially for the Hudson Valley and points West. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 17 minutes ago, USCG RS said: It appears that a crippling ice storm is going to hit part of the country. Fortunately, the tri-state area looks to be in better shape - for now. Given the strength of the HP, I would not rule such drastic SE shifts as the 06z at this time. You have to see how shallow the warm air is. If most of the column is cold or if the warm layer is above 925mb that would favor more sleet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You have to see how shallow the warm air is. If most of the column is cold or if the warm layer is above 925mb that would favor more sleet. Of course.... I just do not trust soundings at this range, especially given the set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I know Icon is usually terrible but yikes at the ice threat it shows. Nam also trending south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Yikes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Yikes Ya that'd be seriously problematic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looks like mostly frozen/snow N/C NJ and north with this arctic high pressing and a less wound up storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Yuck, hope that's far from the right idea. We don't do ice over here. But we did it in 94 and that's some cold confluence pressing. Think the interior would get some snow out of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The GFS run gives you everything. Rain to ZR to sleet to snow. It didn't back down from 06z, it actually trended even colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 That artic high means business and models starting to pick up on it. Ukie was the colder outlier but ICON FWIW has trended significantly south and GFS also. GFS verbatim gives me a little rain to sleet to heavy snow. It's a battle and we are in the battle zone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GGEM, on the other hand, is much warmer with mainly plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I was thinking of going to my place in Michigan for the event there, but it's starting to look like it may be almost as good here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: GGEM, on the other hand, is much warmer with mainly plain rain. Yeah and it also had a massive storm west of the BM. GFS performed a lot better. We'll see if the Euro follows though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah and it also had a massive storm west of the BM. GFS performed a lot better. We'll see if the Euro follows though. GFS was a dumpster fire also. It had hardly any snow for the area, including Long Island, 48 hours before snow began. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The GFS was too far SE and had no snow west of Suffolk. Perhaps a compromise between the two models then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The GFS run gives you everything. Rain to ZR to sleet to snow. It didn't back down from 06z, it actually trended even colder. With the position of the high and the strength, expect this to trend south. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: GGEM, on the other hand, is much warmer with mainly plain rain. That depends on where you live. Im north of 84 and it gives me plenty of ZR and sleet. Like I said its a battle and a long way to go on this one but I wouldn't be surprised if models continue to trend colder. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: With the position of the high and the strength, expect this to trend south. Maybe maybe not. A stronger overrunning wave will push it north. But at this lead time the cold air might not be showing up as well as it would be at the surface. This would be a nasty ice storm for a pretty wide area if this setup stays as is. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now