andyhb Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Reminder to use the FRAM estimates available on PivotalWx for ice accretion and not ZR QPF. It's a much better (and scientifically sound) method for estimating/forecasting icing events. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 31 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z Euro gets extreme NNJ and the Hudson Valley below freezing by 12z. That's the key. It actually trended 1-2 degrees colder at this hour than the 00z run. I get it that we should look at all the models up until game time but at this point shouldn't we put more stock in what the short range models are showing ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 A 3.4 degree drop here in the last hour, interesting. 40.7 with light rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: A 3.4 degree drop here in the last hour, interesting. 40.7 with light rain. 41 here, bustling on the low side with temps. MGJ is at 39 SWF is at 41. These couple of degrees could make a difference overnight, early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 40 here with light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 lol 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I'm fairing far better then Boston lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Gaping holes in the snowpack at ISP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: lol Lol, that's midtown manhattan level of snowmelt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: I'm fairing far better then Boston lol Looks about the same here. Bare patches growing pretty quickly though. The one thing that could make it worse for snow retention is if there was a stronger wind. I’d imagine down in Long Beach there’s not much left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: lol That’s insane. I had way less than Boston but still way more than that left lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Looks about the same here. Bare patches growing pretty quickly though. The one thing that could make it worse for snow retention is if there was a stronger wind. I’d imagine down in Long Beach there’s not much left. Oh yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 22 minutes ago, forkyfork said: lol And this is before the rain even hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, andyhb said: Reminder to use the FRAM estimates available on PivotalWx for ice accretion and not ZR QPF. It's a much better (and scientifically sound) method for estimating/forecasting icing events. Do you happen to know what the FRAM alogrithm does? When I learned how simplisitic and scientifically questionable the Kuchera ratio algorithm was a few years back I was kind of taken aback, so was wondering whether the FRAM algorithm assumptions/calcs made sense. They appear to be quite close for light ZR amounts, but pretty far apart for heavier amounts, with FRAM showing about half of the standard ZR - wondering if the key is precip rate and FRAM assumes much more of the rain doesn't accrete in heavy rainfall. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 The last few runs of the HRRR have been trending colder in the near term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Cfa said: Gaping holes in the snowpack at ISP. I still have full coverage. I fully expect to be down to patches by noon tomorrow. Good lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Forecasted high was 42, which was my high for the day, been sitting at 41 now for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 NAM still showing over a quarter inch qpf of ice for Manhattan, Bronx, most of Brooklyn and Queens and northern Nassau. I'd say impactful icing probably anywhere north of the 30 degree line which gets to about the Bronx/Westchester border. This is definitely a tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: NAM still showing over a quarter inch qpf of ice for Manhattan, Bronx, most of Brooklyn and Queens and northern Nassau. I'd say impactful icing probably anywhere north of the 30 degree line which gets to about the Bronx/Westchester border. This is definitely a tough call. It drops quite a bit more liquid than the Euro between 18z and 00z. Temps really plummet after 12-15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: That’s insane. I had way less than Boston but still way more than that left lol. Is that a fake moustache he has on? Anyways lol We had the same amount of snow as Ray did (a little over a foot.) Only the high banding areas got 20 inches plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The city and northern Nassau has been added to the WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: The city and northern Nassau has been added to the WWA URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 355 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 NJZ006-107-108-NYZ072>075-078-176>179-041100- /O.EXB.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.220204T1300Z-220205T0000Z/ Hudson-Western Union-Eastern Union-New York (Manhattan)-Bronx- Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northwest Suffolk- Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens-Southern Nassau- 355 PM EST Thu Feb 3 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 7 PM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Freezing rain expected. Total ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 8 AM to 7 PM EST Friday. * IMPACTS...Difficult travel conditions are possible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 39.7 here 0.72 of rain today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 OKX afternoon AFD: .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front pushes south through the forecast area Friday morning with lowering temperatures falling slowly behind it. One of the challenges for coastal areas regarding freezing rain is that a weak wave of low pressure shifts through nearby which may delay the timing of surface temps falling to freezing and below. For all locations regarding PCPN type, a challenge will be whether, and how quickly, the magnitude (temperature and depth) of the cold nose beneath the warm nose aloft can introduce sleet as a PCPN type. OKX afternoon AFD: Forecast soundings show a relatively shallow cold nose that`s marginally cold enough for the likelihood of liquid aloft refreezing to sleet from the coast northward through around the I-84 corridor. On the other hand, by the time surface temps are falling below freezing for these areas, precip intensity should be lighter which would increase the chances of refreezing (smaller droplets). Temps aloft cool down to a level that would preclude rain or freezing rain late in the day/early evening for most coastal sections, but mid level drying should work against sleet or snow, so no snow or sleet seems likely for the coast. Not much opportunity overall for snow with this setup as temps in the warm nose don`t cool down enough in time to coincide with deep moisture. Best chances of snow will be well NW of the city late morning to early afternoon, but even this is in question since mid levels will be drying with a lack of ice nucleation - so maybe it remains a mix of freezing rain and sleet there into the afternoon. Surface temp forecast was based on a blend raw 2m NAM and GFS temperatures. The colder GFS more closely mimics the HREF ensemble mean with higher res data which picks up more on cold air drainage down the Hudson Valley into the city. With that said, both GFS and NAM have trended a little warmer in this regard from the previous few run cycles. Have decided to add the remainder of the NJ zones, NYC, and parts of LI to the winter wx advisory where at least a few hundredths of an inch of ice accretion is expected tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Under WWA here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathermedic said: OKX afternoon AFD: .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front pushes south through the forecast area Friday morning with lowering temperatures falling slowly behind it. One of the challenges for coastal areas regarding freezing rain is that a weak wave of low pressure shifts through nearby which may delay the timing of surface temps falling to freezing and below. For all locations regarding PCPN type, a challenge will be whether, and how quickly, the magnitude (temperature and depth) of the cold nose beneath the warm nose aloft can introduce sleet as a PCPN type. OKX afternoon AFD: Forecast soundings show a relatively shallow cold nose that`s marginally cold enough for the likelihood of liquid aloft refreezing to sleet from the coast northward through around the I-84 corridor. On the other hand, by the time surface temps are falling below freezing for these areas, precip intensity should be lighter which would increase the chances of refreezing (smaller droplets). Temps aloft cool down to a level that would preclude rain or freezing rain late in the day/early evening for most coastal sections, but mid level drying should work against sleet or snow, so no snow or sleet seems likely for the coast. Not much opportunity overall for snow with this setup as temps in the warm nose don`t cool down enough in time to coincide with deep moisture. Best chances of snow will be well NW of the city late morning to early afternoon, but even this is in question since mid levels will be drying with a lack of ice nucleation - so maybe it remains a mix of freezing rain and sleet there into the afternoon. Surface temp forecast was based on a blend raw 2m NAM and GFS temperatures. The colder GFS more closely mimics the HREF ensemble mean with higher res data which picks up more on cold air drainage down the Hudson Valley into the city. With that said, both GFS and NAM have trended a little warmer in this regard from the previous few run cycles. Have decided to add the remainder of the NJ zones, NYC, and parts of LI to the winter wx advisory where at least a few hundredths of an inch of ice accretion is expected tomorrow. Boy what a big ring around the rosey discussion about there not sure what's going to happen exactly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Southern Bergen County at 18z tomorrow. 3k 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Rockland County at 15z tomorrow. 3k 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Ice amounts increased. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Ice amounts increased. They really needed to drag the 0.25"+ line down to at least Southern Rockland County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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