Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

February 3-4 significant icing event for the interior, some sleet/snow possible. Coast mostly rain.


NJwx85
 Share

Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you say warm and snowless for every event eventually you'll be right.

I mean geographically they are right that an ice storm is NYC is very very very rare, thats why I didn't really trust when the guidance was showing big icing to the city (I know some guidance still is showing mild icing in the city). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Since when did this turn into the snowpack observation thread?

Yes the HRRR doesn't have much ice South of 287 in Rockland but the GFS, 06z 3K NAM and some of the other mesoscale models are still on board. 

12z will be telling.

Snowpack 6 inches. Will be reporting again tomorrow morning. 

  • Like 3
  • Haha 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Snowpack 6 inches. Will be reporting again tomorrow morning. 

Thanks for the ob. This is worth knowing, since snowcover naturally has an impact on low-level temps (as well as fog formation, potentially dense, later today). It's getting pretty patchy here, especially under trees and on the usual south-facing slopes. Should be relegated to piles before long.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Thanks for the ob. This is worth knowing, since snowcover naturally has an impact on low-level temps (as well as fog formation, potentially dense, later today). It's getting pretty patchy here, especially under trees and on the usual south-facing slopes. Should be relegated to piles before long.

About 6-7” on average down here, some exposed spots are bare. It’s resilient because of the water content but I doubt there’s much left by the time we go below freezing again. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, crossbowftw3 said:

As a reminder, the QPF maps cannot be taken 100% verbatim. Chop them down by 30-40% and you come away with the likelier results. 

It's not a one size fits all scenario.

0.5" will accrete much faster at 28 degrees than it would 32 degrees. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The OPC surface prog may give you an idea why the warmer solutions are in play

Dual Lows  on the front

A_24hrsfc.thumb.gif.e3ce4849e61ee6dec18f5110232a7a63.gif

if you are smart enough to login to the forum

you are smart enough to make your own forecast -imho

or just follow the smart ass poster you trust  :rolleyes:  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

52 in HPN and 28 in Pou is quite a sharp gradient. Ukie has looked similar too with how warm it gets but I think these two models are overdone with the warm push.

I’m at 44° right now.

 

Somebody in the region is making a run at 50F

This is coming in much warmer than modeled which will have implications for any icing

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I’m at 44° right now.

 

Somebody in the region is making a run at 50F

This is coming in much warmer than modeled which will have implications for any icing

 

 

I'm currently projected to stay well above freezing until early afternoon tomorrow.  Precip appears to be essentially over by then.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

I'm currently projected to stay well above freezing until early afternoon tomorrow.  Precip appears to be essentially over by then.

 

22 hours ago, Doorman said:

Current Critical Thickness Prog  & Intellicast   Rain/Snow Radar Overlay

 

matches up nicely...

I think most of the metro will warm sector until the bitter end :nerdsmiley:

 

-link to radar for those on the fringe -

https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current

spc meso

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl#

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

I’m at 44° right now.

 

Somebody in the region is making a run at 50F

This is coming in much warmer than modeled which will have implications for any icing

 

 

Yes but I would expect the 50s to be more so up to Central NJ and maybe south shore of LI. We'll see though. Either way no ones snowpack south of I84 is probably surviving this storm. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The OPC surface prog may give you an idea why the warmer solutions are in play
Dual Lows  on the front
A_24hrsfc.thumb.gif.e3ce4849e61ee6dec18f5110232a7a63.gif
if you are smart enough to login to the forum
you are smart enough to make your own forecast -imho
or just follow the smart ass poster you trust  :rolleyes:  
I'm here for the free maps

Sent from my SM-T510 using Tapatalk

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro has NYC at 46 and HPN at 32 tomorrow at 12z. Can't recall a storm with a gradient that sharp. 

I think the reason for the warm tongue into Sullivan County is because of the difference in elevation. The cold air is very shallow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...