wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 42 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Daytime 40 is one thing, two straight nights above freezing and tomorrow night with rain and approaching 50 is another. Although out on LI there is so much it probably won't be all gone but in the five boroughs i'd expect very little left on Friday morning. Though my temp forecasts from now and weekend don't have me getting close to 50, 45 maybe. Lows at night 32-35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Though my temp forecasts Berrien now and weekend don't have me getting close to 50, 45 maybe. Lows at night 32-35. Yea its definitely a tricky forecast but I am sorta ignoring the GFS because it's on it's own and going with a Euro/CMC/Ukie blend which would have NYC/LI well in the 40s with lots of rain tomorrow night before this possible ice threat even happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I wouldn't underestimate ice accretion at any temperature below freezing. True 30-32 probably isn't as harmful as the 20s, but I've seen it where my location gets stuck at 28 or so, or gets into an evaporational cooling situation that shaves a couple more degrees off. Then we have bigger problems, as we did in the December, 2019 storm. It didn't affect a very large area, but was highly disruptive for some out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said: I wouldn't underestimate ice accretion at any temperature below freezing. True 30-32 probably isn't as harmful as the 20s, but I've seen it where my location gets stuck at 28 or so, or gets into an evaporational cooling situation that shaves a couple more degrees off. Then we have bigger problems, as we did in the December, 2019 storm. It didn't affect a very large area, but was highly disruptive for some out this way. Yes temp at 28 for hours would be a big problem. No model showing this for NYC Metro right now except GFS. Even the NAM which usually picks up on this kind of situation well is pretty warm so I'm just basing off current guidance. Also what I'm reacting to is the models starting to show more of that classic SW to NE freezing line as opposed to North to South. I am not ignoring this could change and become more of a threat for NYC and is already a significant threat for Northern Westcher, Rockland, and Orange Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I said in the city, different world outside of the city. Not to beat a dead horse but you said NYC metro I believe. Anyway, long range HRRR has been trending icier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Any amount of ice is an issue but over 0.3” or so can create real problems and is at the point where tree limbs start to break. Hopefully that’s overdone. If the precip is light it might create more of a problem actually. Lighter rain is more likely to freeze on contact vs heavy rain much of which would run off at temps above 28 or so. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Yeah it won't take much to kill this meager pack Its not meager 7 miles north of I-287 in Westchester........ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Yea its definitely a tricky forecast but I am sorta ignoring the GFS because it's on it's own and going with a Euro/CMC/Ukie blend which would have NYC/LI well in the 40s with lots of rain tomorrow night before this possible ice threat even happens. Gfs historically did better , key word, better forecasting cold temps. I wouldn't fully discount it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18z Friday 17z Friday( presents better for posting purposes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Nam now mirrors what gfs was saying. Along with fv3-HI and hrrr and hrrr has a warm bias so yeah.. things just started getting real interesting work start of 18z nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Nam gets some icing further south before precip shuts off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Closer to long Island/ nyc areas, I meant to add lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Its at freezing at 12Z Friday and gets colder from there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Nam is really bad Similar to the gfs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 This is why the NAM cannot be trusted. It just shifted the significant icing 50 miles SE in one run. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: This is why the NAM cannot be trusted. It just shifted the significant icing 50 miles SE in one run. until inside 36-42 it cannot be trusted really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 There is your problem area in this scenario. Prolonged temps in the 20s with topography 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 The NAM gets sleet all the way down into the city before precip finally shuts off. It's also not as robust as the GFS with the amount that falls during the day on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Whole bunch of recon planes flying right now too just noticed That should add to models changing a decent amount coming up later lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Oh no, I see snow eating fog monster developing along gardiners Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Oh no, I see snow eating fog monster developing along gardiners Bay Same here south shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Another slight tick up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Same here south shore Luckily I think it's mainly the cold cold icy waters causing it versus snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The RGEM sure still wants no part of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The RGEM sure still wants no part of this It has a big warm bias 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 hours ago, weatherpruf said: I lose power in most major events, and I live near SI on the NJ side....I haven't lost power in ice, but in all of the big hurricanes/tropical storms and in the October 2011 snowstorm. This has to do with downed trees mostly. So the ice has to be pretty bad to bring down trees, and I don't think that's happened in awhile. Curiously, the block in back of me usually doesn't lose power. Haven't lost power in winter, though that Oct storm was winter temps, but not enough to freeze pipes. It's such a threat I have installed water pressure backup pumps for sump pumps, since we typically do not lose water ( though one town did from some reason during Sandy, according to the contractor who installed it ). sure and in all my 40 plus years I have never ever lost power in ANY winter storm of any type and I've seen them all. It happens in hurricanes and thunderstorm events like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Not sure if anyone posted this yet. 3k NAM actually has a lot of sleet for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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