IrishRob17 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Uptons latest ice amounts Its time stamped at 4:53am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro continues to keep the freezing line just NW of the city and it's mainly rain event for I95 Surface freezing line or 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro continues to keep the freezing line just NW of the city and it's mainly rain event for I95 This could be one of those times where the Bronx and upper Manhattan and northern Queens get ice accumulation and the southern half of those boroughs along with Brooklyn and Staten Island get plain rain. I've seen it happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro continues to keep the freezing line just NW of the city and it's mainly rain event for I95 It's about the same as the 00z run. Gets the significant icing down to Southern Bergen County. The target area is North of I-80 and South of I-84. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: It's about the same as the 00z run. Gets the significant icing down to Southern Bergen County. The target area is North of I-80 and South of I-84. No it doesn’t 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's very close With forecast highs in the 40’s tomorrow, hopefully it will warm up the surface ground temps some. Another thought is the initial rain will wash off whatever salt is currently down on the roadways currently also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: No it doesn’t It continues to get colder after this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, weathermedic said: This could be one of those times where the Bronx and upper Manhattan and northern Queens get ice accumulation and the southern half of those boroughs along with Brooklyn and Staten Island get plain rain. I've seen it happen before. In a setup like this though with persistent N-NW flow starting by 06-07Z I am suspicious about the low level cold air getting hung up like that...that is more common in a CF type scenario or a classic system with NE winds 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Euro says no to any ice General comments like this are ridiculous in this situation. It's says no to ice NYC metro and Long Island, its shows significant icing N and W of there. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, David-LI said: Do you believe schools will be closed Friday? Commute will be a mess if we get forecasted ice/sleet. Doubt it for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: Any way of giving a QPF amount of frozen goods for folks up this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I highly doubt anyone in the immediate NYC metro gets any icing. You would need temps to fall through the 20s to see ice accretion. NW NJ, SE Upstate NY, NE PA is where the icing is much more likely. The GFS would have to be correct. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: In a setup like this though with persistent N-NW flow starting by 06-07Z I am suspicious about the low level cold air getting hung up like that...that is more common in a CF type scenario or a classic system with NE winds The Euro has the city sitting at 33 degrees and plain rain at 12z Friday. The GFS is 28 degrees at the same hour. Temperatures crash after than panel on all guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Any way of giving a QPF amount of frozen goods for folks up this way? Not offered on the free products available on Pivotal Weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: The Euro has the city sitting at 33 degrees and plain rain at 12z Friday. The GFS is 28 degrees at the same hour. Temperatures crash after than panel on all guidance. Yes, that’s the difference between a nuance event and an ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: I highly doubt anyone in the immediate NYC metro gets any icing. You would need temps to fall through the 20s to see ice accretion. NW NJ, SE Upstate NY, NE PA is where the icing is much more likely. The GFS would have to be correct. You should include NE NJ. Bergen, Passaic and Morris Counties are not part of NW NJ. When people that live in NJ think of NW NJ they think of Sussex and Warren Counties. Keep in mind the Euro delays the cold the longest and has the least amount of precip after temps fall. The UKMET is the warmest out of all but it should be discarded. It shows the city at 55 degrees while the Euro/GFS blend is 30.5 at 12z Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 17 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Any way of giving a QPF amount of frozen goods for folks up this way? Looks to be around .7 Edit: Saw a better map that has .74 for MGJ and .92 at SWF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Keep in mind we all have a solid snow pack right now, Whatever falls is going to fall on that as temps plummet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Yes, that’s the difference between a nuance event and an ice storm It was never going to be more than a nascence storm for the city. The power grid is underground and the UHI factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, wishcast_hater said: If a transmission line goes down it doesn’t matter if your lines are above or below ground. THIS as even in Rockland if your power is underground there is a good chance that before it gets to your house or afterwards it is still above ground as most of my area is like this so even though my power is indeed underground if a tree goes down or a car hits a poll or a transformer blows a qtr mile or more away I still lose power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It was never going to be more than a nascence storm for the city. The power grid is underground and the UHI factor. 12z GFS is 27 degrees at 12z Friday. KNYC and KHPN are same temperature. The city is more than the manhattan and im talking about the general area. Euro is 33 at both stations, same time. GFS is a big ice storm for a lot of the area, Euro is a whole lot of nothing. Going to be very little accretion of ice at 32, 31, or 30. Really need temps in 20s for this to become a bigger deal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: You should include NE NJ. Bergen, Passaic and Morris Counties are not part of NW NJ. When people that live in NJ think of NW NJ they think of Sussex and Warren Counties. Keep in mind the Euro delays the cold the longest and has the least amount of precip after temps fall. The UKMET is the warmest out of all but it should be discarded. It shows the city at 55 degrees while the Euro/GFS blend is 30.5 at 12z Friday. You're right NE NJ is in that group. UKMET has been garbage throughout. It was the southernmost model now it's the warmest. However I'm not seeing the cold drain setup until after the precip ends. You want what's happening in TX. Large Arctic high to the north sinking southeast. That's not what we're getting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, mikeysed said: Keep in mind we all have a solid snow pack right now, Whatever falls is going to fall on that as temps plummet. That snowpack may be gone by Friday morning especially if the warmer models are right and we have consecutive nights in the 40s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro has the city sitting at 33 degrees and plain rain at 12z Friday. The GFS is 28 degrees at the same hour. Temperatures crash after than panel on all guidance. Euro actually doesn't crash and warms the area back up to 35 at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The temp spead for NYC at 12Z on Friday on the four major models at this range. GFS- 28 Euro- 33 CMC- 49 Ukmet- 55 Don't think I've seen a spread like that two days out before an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Don't know if it means much but temps overperforming by several degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: That snowpack may be gone by Friday morning especially if the warmer models are right and we have consecutive nights in the 40s. Yeah it won't take much to kill this meager pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It was never going to be more than a nascence storm for the city. The power grid is underground and the UHI factor. Plenty of power lines above ground in the outer boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 12z GFS is 27 degrees at 12z Friday. KNYC and KHPN are same temperature. The city is more than the manhattan and im talking about the general area. Euro is 33 at both stations, same time. GFS is a big ice storm for a lot of the area, Euro is a whole lot of nothing. Going to be very little accretion of ice at 32, 31, or 30. Really need temps in 20s for this to become a bigger deal. An even blend of the 12z GFS and Euro gives you temps near 30 degrees in NYC at 12z and much, much colder by 15z. At 15z the GFS is down to 22 degrees at HPN. The GFS drops quite a bit of liquid between 12z and 18z compared to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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