SnowDemon Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 That is ugggggly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Really tough forecast. NWS Albany isn't buying the .50+ ZR in my area and calling for about .20 ZR and 1-2 inches of sleet and then 1-3 of snow. We shall see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Really tough forecast. NWS Albany isn't buying the .50+ ZR in my area and calling for about .20 ZR and 1-2 inches of sleet and then 1-3 of snow. We shall see. That's not a bad call up in your area. You will cool faster aloft and will get more sleet than areas farther South. I think you will need to be well South of 84 for this to be significant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Really tough forecast. NWS Albany isn't buying the .50+ ZR in my area and calling for about .20 ZR and 1-2 inches of sleet and then 1-3 of snow. We shall see. Areas along and N of 84 will prob deal with more IP than ZR. I see the potential ZR problem in areas like NNJ/Rockland/Westchester 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 I think you will see increased wording regarding the ice threat after the Euro comes in, assuming not much changes. They are getting close to the window where they will need to start issuing products. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, snywx said: Areas along and N of 84 will prob deal with more IP than ZR. I see the potential ZR problem in areas like NNJ/Rockland/Westchester That’s what I’m feeling right now too, if I had to guess a forecast for our areas it would probably also be 1-3 with up to .1.-.2 of ZR, and definitely more sleet. Good to make a bulletproof pack, hellish to try and clear after the fact especially with the temps crashing right back down Friday afternoon + evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: That’s what I’m feeling right now too, if I had to guess a forecast for our areas it would probably also be 1-3 with up to .1.-.2 of ZR, and definitely more sleet. Good to make a bulletproof pack, hellish to try and clear after the fact especially with the temps crashing right back down Friday afternoon + evening. Most of the power grid down this way is above ground. I know a lot was said about moving it underground after Sandy but it hasn't happened yet. I think most of NYC is underground which is why those areas are more immune to ice storms but the suburbs are a completely different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Most of the power grid down this way is above ground. I know a lot was said about moving it underground after Sandy but it hasn't happened yet. I think most of NYC is underground which is why those areas are more immune to ice storms but the suburbs are a completely different story. NJ, I’m in the haverstraw area of rockland county and the lines on my block and in my area are underground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Greg g said: NJ, I’m in the haverstraw area of rockland county and the lines on my block and in my area are underground If a transmission line goes down it doesn’t matter if your lines are above or below ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Greg g said: NJ, I’m in the haverstraw area of rockland county and the lines on my block and in my area are underground And I live in Bardonia and we're all above ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, wishcast_hater said: If a transmission line goes down it doesn’t matter if your lines are above or below ground. Yes that is true .. many experiences with seeing transmissions go.. most remembered during Floyd.. when it lit up the sky all green in the middle of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Mesoscale models really starting to hone in now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: If a transmission line goes down it doesn’t matter if your lines are above or below ground. Transmission lines going down is a grid issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Any chance of this reaching the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Any chance of this reaching the coast? absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 If the location of the arctic high pressure is situated properly with the cold air draining down the Hudson Valley into NYC, that is usually how the city gets cold quicker and stays cold rather than on a northwesterly flow 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, weathermedic said: If the location of the arctic high pressure is situated properly with the cold air draining down the Hudson Valley into NYC, that is usually how the city gets cold quicker and stays cold rather than on a northwesterly flow All of the flow at the mid levels are Southwesterly so not much warmer air to come in off the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Mesoscale models really starting to hone in now. Those are pretty scary but not sure how well they usually verify. I did see the SPC HREF though already has FZRA to Long Island by 09-10Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Those are pretty scary but not sure how well they usually verify. I did see the SPC HREF though already has FZRA to Long Island by 09-10Z They typically never do. Common rule is to cut QPF maps by 35-40% to get totals and that’ll get a wide enough area to .25” or more which still will prove to be a gigantic problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 As always, it bears remembering that QPF falling as freezing rain isn't the same as the eventual glaze thickness. In excellent conditions, radial ice accretion to liquid ratios are around 0.3:1 or 0.4:1, with horizontal accretion around 0.75:1. So 0.5" of "freezing rain QPF" will not be half an inch of ice sitting on power lines. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Those are pretty scary but not sure how well they usually verify. I did see the SPC HREF though already has FZRA to Long Island by 09-10Z Any idea as to when Upton or Mount Holly will post watches concerning this ZR event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: As always, it bears remembering that QPF falling as freezing rain isn't the same as the eventual glaze thickness. In excellent conditions, radial ice accretion to liquid ratios are around 0.3:1 or 0.4:1, with horizontal accretion around 0.75:1. So 0.5" of "freezing rain QPF" will not be half an inch of ice sitting on power lines. Thank God! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Do you believe schools will be closed Friday? Commute will be a mess if we get forecasted ice/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Any idea as to when Upton or Mount Holly will post watches concerning this ZR event? In their morning AFD, Upton said watches will be put out with either the evening forecast update tonight or Thu morning's update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: As always, it bears remembering that QPF falling as freezing rain isn't the same as the eventual glaze thickness. In excellent conditions, radial ice accretion to liquid ratios are around 0.3:1 or 0.4:1, with horizontal accretion around 0.75:1. So 0.5" of "freezing rain QPF" will not be half an inch of ice sitting on power lines. Agree and it would also be following warmth and rain especially closer to the coast which I would think would also reduce accretion somewhat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, weathermedic said: If the location of the arctic high pressure is situated properly with the cold air draining down the Hudson Valley into NYC, that is usually how the city gets cold quicker and stays cold rather than on a northwesterly flow Very good point, if the cold is coming from the northwest it will take a lot longer to reach the metro area than if its coming out of the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Uptons latest ice amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: As always, it bears remembering that QPF falling as freezing rain isn't the same as the eventual glaze thickness. In excellent conditions, radial ice accretion to liquid ratios are around 0.3:1 or 0.4:1, with horizontal accretion around 0.75:1. So 0.5" of "freezing rain QPF" will not be half an inch of ice sitting on power lines. All depends on the surface temperature. Temperature around 32 won’t accumulate as much ice as temps in the mid 20’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Euro continues to keep the freezing line just NW of the city and it's mainly rain event for I95 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Euro continues to keep the freezing line just NW of the city and it's mainly rain event for I95 It's very close 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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