weatherpruf Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Watches/Advisories coming potentially The GEFS probability of freezing rain has been increasing with each successive model run for this event, with a 50%-60% chance of freezing rain for KLGA and just over 50% for KISP. The 21Z SREF also had between a 20% to 40% chance of freezing rain for the city and Long Island, which are high probabilities for this model, although the most recent run has backed off on these chances. Finally, the deterministic models generally came in colder with the 00Z runs. If this colder solution continues, more in the way of ice is possible, especially because that could mean the colder air filters in during a period of more moderate precipitation. For now, went with ice accretion of between a tenth and a quarter of an inch for western Long Island, New York City, northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest Connecticut. Elsewhere a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an inch is expected. Higher elevations in the Lower Hudson Valley would likely see the highest ice accretion amounts. Additionally, any standing water from rain and snow melt will refreeze during this time frame. While these values do not prompt Winter Storm Watches to be issued (0.50" of ice would be needed), will have to monitor for this potential if it looks like a significant impact to either or both commutes on Friday, as there still remains uncertainty with the exact timing of the transition to the wintry mix. Otherwise, given these ice accretion amounts, Winter Weather Advisories would need to be issued with this afternoon`s forecast package or Thursday morning`s package. This seems like a bad outcome to me. Hopefully it won't verify. Even a little ice is bad news. One other thing about some of the ice events over the years, the temps warmed up as the day wore on; seems here dropping temps are the problem, no? That would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Ice totals increased as of this morning's updated map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 For us guys near 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 NAM coming in warm for the area (outside of far north and west) precip is mostly done by the time the real cold air arrives 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Brian5671 said: NAM coming in warm for the area (outside of far north and west) precip is mostly done by the time the real cold air arrives I'll take it. Really don't want to contend with ice. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 29 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: For us guys near 84. Cool cool, Russia is now part of this forum 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I mean the setup didn’t really change a ton on that run. The NAM simply donked off all the precip back to PIT/ROC it had from 72-84 the previous run. The thermals post 12Z Friday weren’t tremendously milder so ultimately if the QPF swing isn’t real the threat is still very much the same for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, romba said: Cool cool, Russia is now part of this forum Don't forget Australia DB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I mean the setup didn’t really change a ton on that run. The NAM simply donked off all the precip back to PIT/ROC it had from 72-84 the previous run. The thermals post 12Z Friday weren’t tremendously milder so ultimately if the QPF swing isn’t real the threat is still very much the same for now I love how one run of the long range NAM somehow tops the rest of the guidance. You would think everyone on here was either born yesterday or has a very short memory. The NAM is erratic and unreliable until inside of 36hrs and even then it's susceptible to major run to run shifts. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I love how one run of the long range NAM somehow tops the rest of the guidance. You would think everyone on here was either born yesterday or has a very short memory. The NAM is erratic and unreliable until inside of 36hrs and even then it's susceptible to major run to run shifts. Who said it topped other guidance? Under 48 hrs so not crazy long range. Yes one model but we are discussing model runs here right!?!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 The 12z runs of the 3k NAM and 12k NAM are both similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Who said it topped other guidance? Under 48 hrs so not crazy long range. Yes one model but we are discussing model runs here right!?!? The model gets a lot more attention than it deserves. It has scored a few points in recent years but overall it's terribly unreliable. The next run could give us 10" of snow. That's how wild it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 12z RGEM is brining in the cold air at the surface faster than the 06z run. Should increase ZR amounts further South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 ice ice baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 The cold air really presses down through the Hudson Valley this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, Snowlover11 said: ice ice baby! Not much ice for the city on this particular run but definitely gets the colder air farther South faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 NYC and W LI flip over at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 45 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: NAM coming in warm for the area (outside of far north and west) precip is mostly done by the time the real cold air arrives Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Enough for the entire Hudson Valley to be under an ice storm warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: FWIW 12k NAM ended up looking similar in the end, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Enough for the entire Hudson Valley to be under an ice storm warning. That seems like a plausible outcome. If you are 50+ miles north or west of NYC, it's def time to pay attention. Down here in the city, a glaze can cause headaches, but 1/2" of ice can cause real problems up by you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 This is an ugly look,,,,,what is the best guesstimate for start time is it Thursday night or Friday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 12k NAM ended up looking similar in the end, no? Similar to what? The NAM is currently the slowest of all the guidance to bring the cold air in at the surface and is weakest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Similar to what? The NAM is currently the slowest of all the guidance to bring the cold air in at the surface and is weakest. With ice accumulations for the tri-state and into SE upstate NY. Granted the FV3 is more bullish otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, USCG RS said: With ice accumulations for the tri-state and into SE upstate NY. Granted the FV3 is more bullish otherwise. The threat area really hasn't changed in several days. Truly amazing how locked in most of the guidance has been. 12z GFS is running. First big model of the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 GFS still holding on to the colder solution. Cools things down faster than 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Wow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Consensus building. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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