February 3-4 significant icing event for the interior, some sleet/snow possible. Coast mostly rain.

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Freezing rain and sleet. This isn’t turning into a NYC snowstorm 

[NJwx85]

The NAM is way over amped, exactly where you’d expect it to be.

[Albedoman]

23 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

this is one of the worst personal attacks i have ever suffered.  any of my future communications to this forum or its members will be conducted through lawyers.  i hope you like dealing with the experts at Dewey, Cheatham, and Howe.

In this environment dealing with these chaotic weather models, this is my go to law firm: 

 

 

 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Huh all I'm hearing is that it will change to freezing rain by 6 am Friday and then temps will keep falling all day and it will change to snow in the afternoon.

 

 

00Z NAM at LGA is 42/32 12Z Friday and 33/21 at 18z...so somewhere probably around 15Z it flips...MOS does not really resolve evaporative cooling so based off that dewpoint drop it would tank to 32 fairly fast

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

00Z NAM at LGA is 42/32 12Z Friday and 33/21 at 18z...so somewhere probably around 15Z it flips...MOS does not really resolve evaporative cooling so based off that dewpoint drop it would tank to 32 fairly fast

Flash freeze in all likely hood

[MJO812]

14 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Freezing rain and sleet. This isn’t turning into a NYC snowstorm 

Thanks captain obvious 

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Nice to see a cold outcome

 

Out of curiosity why do you think it’s nice to get freezing rain and sleet? Serious question 

[SHELEG]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Out of curiosity why do you think it’s nice to get freezing rain and sleet? Serious question 

Many people have the same question about you liking  snowstorms. I like freezing rain and Sleet weather you understand it or not.

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM is a tad cooler than the 18z run after 12Z Friday but its still way warmer than the NAM/Euro/GFS at 18Z Friday

[eduggs]

The NAM has more than an inch of non-freezing rain for most of the area. That would be fun.

Then maybe we get a few tenths of freezing rain. Doubly fun.

[HVSnowLover]

I know this is an odd take but I also don't see what is so bad about sleet and freezing rain. They are pretty especially on top of a snowpack and I haven't really found them to do that much damage but I guess others have had different experiences. 

[NJwx85]

7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I know this is an odd take but I also don't see what is so bad about sleet and freezing rain. They are pretty especially on top of a snowpack and I haven't really found them to do that much damage but I guess others have had different experiences. 

A glaze is pretty. A half inch will do major damage.

[NorthShoreWx]

10 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I know this is an odd take but I also don't see what is so bad about sleet and freezing rain. They are pretty especially on top of a snowpack and I haven't really found them to do that much damage but I guess others have had different experiences. 

Sleet in a snowpack is more snowpack.  Ice is just ice, plus the increased travel and power threats.

[snowman19]

14 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

I know this is an odd take but I also don't see what is so bad about sleet and freezing rain. They are pretty especially on top of a snowpack and I haven't really found them to do that much damage but I guess others have had different experiences. 

What’s bad about a freezing rain storm? Knocking your power out for days in sub freezing temps, no heat, then your water pipes freeze, burst and destroy your house? 

[HVSnowLover]

GFS looks like it won't be backing down this run. 

[HVSnowLover]

GFS also looks like a two wave scenario with the 2nd one offshore late Friday.  

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS also looks like a two wave scenario with the 2nd one offshore late Friday.  

Temps plummet with the 2nd wave

[NJwx85]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

GFS looks like it won't be backing down this run. 

Really all the other models have been slowly trending towards it. Even if it ends up a tad too warm aloft and we get more sleet than it shows, even a quarter inch of ice is no joke.

[NJwx85]

1”+ ZR in the Hudson Valley this run. 0.50” for NYC.

[RU848789]

My 0Z summary of ice, since I don't think anyone cares as much about an inch or two of sleet/snow (need to be north of 84 for that, probably) vs ZR.  Euro next.  One other thing, taking the NAM verbatim, is that almost all of the ZR for the NYC metro (inside of 287) falls from 7 am to 4 pm, when temps are just barely below 32F and when there should be enough indirect sunlight to prevent much ice accretion on most paved surfaces.  Timing may really help us here. The GFS goes much colder, much faster and would likely be more impactful.  

0Z NAM icier than 18Z with significant (>0.1") ice down to 195/276

OZ RDPS/RGEM similar to 18Z with significant ice only N of 80

0Z GFS icier than 18Z with significant (>0.1") ice down to Philly to LBI

0Z CMC less icy than 18Z (and 100+ miles NW of GFS) with significant ice only N of 80

0Z UK less icy than 18Z (presumably, as the snow shield moved NW, but I don't see ZR maps for the UK; snow is similar to 18Z Euro, so if ice is similar it would be down to the Raritan/202).  

0Z Euro is slightly less icy than 18Z with significant (>0.1") ice down to about 78.

Good luck making a forecast with that model spread, lol.  Fortunately, we're still 54-60 hours from changeover time, so we have some time to figure this out.  

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Lots of rain coming, should melt everything by Friday.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Out of curiosity why do you think it’s nice to get freezing rain and sleet? Serious question 

Because it is only a transitory phase.  Sleet is better than freezing rain, of course.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

1”+ ZR in the Hudson Valley this run. 0.50” for NYC.

wow haven't had this kind of event in awhile

[SnoSki14]

Nam trending warmer. This will just be a rain event unless you're well north and west. 

Nearly 2" of rain too will melt everything with temps well in the 40s.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nam trending warmer. This will just be a rain event unless you're well north and west. 

Nearly 2" of rain too will melt everything with temps well in the 40s.

The difference in snow pack between the uws and Long Island is striking this morning. Temps stayed above freezing over night in the UHI and with less snow to begin with it’s dwindling. On the island it looks like the blizzard happened yesterday. I can’t imagine there will be anything but piles in the city before the rain even gets here. 
I would be fine with a sleet storm, valentines 07 was pretty incredible. But ice is just too annoying for removal. 
One thing to consider too, ground temps will be warm going into this which will limit accretion. Our dangerous for the roads ice events occur with the opposite setup, cold before and cold ground temps.

[gravitylover]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

thats kind of alarmist dude, I lived through Jan 1994 with 2 inches of ice and nothing like that happened.

we live in new ****ing york not in nowheresville, hick USA

 

 

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it also looks absolutely gorgeous on the trees

none of that doomsday crap happens unless you live somewhere run by a bunch of neanderthals, like say, Texas

Sometimes you say the dumbest shit. This is one of those times. 

[gpsnavigator]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it also looks absolutely gorgeous on the trees

none of that doomsday crap happens unless you live somewhere run by a bunch of neanderthals, like say, Texas

I agree with gravitylover RE: your often utterly ridiculous take on things.

Ice storms can be damaging anywhere, especially with aging infrastructure that definiately needs to be addressed.  But to suggest that it only affects "hicks and neandrathals" (your terms, not mine), is short sighted and asinine.  Take a look at weather history.  You will find many storms over the years have affected various parts of the world in destructive ways, including many communities of color who don't have the means to pick right back up and rebuild or move elsewhere after a natural disaster.

[NJwx85]

Watches/Advisories coming potentially

The GEFS probability
of freezing rain has been increasing with each successive model run
for this event, with a 50%-60% chance of freezing rain for KLGA and
just over 50% for KISP. The 21Z SREF also had between a 20% to 40%
chance of freezing rain for the city and Long Island, which are high
probabilities for this model, although the most recent run has
backed off on these chances. Finally, the deterministic models
generally came in colder with the 00Z runs. If this colder solution
continues, more in the way of ice is possible, especially because
that could mean the colder air filters in during a period of more
moderate precipitation. For now, went with ice accretion of between
a tenth and a quarter of an inch for western Long Island, New York
City, northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest
Connecticut. Elsewhere a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an
inch is expected. Higher elevations in the Lower Hudson Valley would
likely see the highest ice accretion amounts. Additionally, any
standing water from rain and snow melt will refreeze during this
time frame. While these values do not prompt Winter Storm Watches to
be issued (0.50" of ice would be needed), will have to monitor for
this potential if it looks like a significant impact to either or
both commutes on Friday, as there still remains uncertainty with the
exact timing of the transition to the wintry mix. Otherwise, given
these ice accretion amounts, Winter Weather Advisories would need to
be issued with this afternoon`s forecast package or Thursday
morning`s package.

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Watches/Advisories coming potentially

The GEFS probability
of freezing rain has been increasing with each successive model run
for this event, with a 50%-60% chance of freezing rain for KLGA and
just over 50% for KISP. The 21Z SREF also had between a 20% to 40%
chance of freezing rain for the city and Long Island, which are high
probabilities for this model, although the most recent run has
backed off on these chances. Finally, the deterministic models
generally came in colder with the 00Z runs. If this colder solution
continues, more in the way of ice is possible, especially because
that could mean the colder air filters in during a period of more
moderate precipitation. For now, went with ice accretion of between
a tenth and a quarter of an inch for western Long Island, New York
City, northeast New Jersey, the Lower Hudson Valley, and southwest
Connecticut. Elsewhere a few hundredths of an inch to a tenth of an
inch is expected. Higher elevations in the Lower Hudson Valley would
likely see the highest ice accretion amounts. Additionally, any
standing water from rain and snow melt will refreeze during this
time frame. While these values do not prompt Winter Storm Watches to
be issued (0.50" of ice would be needed), will have to monitor for
this potential if it looks like a significant impact to either or
both commutes on Friday, as there still remains uncertainty with the
exact timing of the transition to the wintry mix. Otherwise, given
these ice accretion amounts, Winter Weather Advisories would need to
be issued with this afternoon`s forecast package or Thursday
morning`s package.

Rockland, Orange, Bergen, Passaic, and Westchester will be under a WWA by tomorrow afternoon I would think 

[weatherpruf]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

it also looks absolutely gorgeous on the trees

none of that doomsday crap happens unless you live somewhere run by a bunch of neanderthals, like say, Texas

I lose power in most major events, and I live near SI on the NJ side....I haven't lost power in ice, but in all of the big hurricanes/tropical storms and in the October 2011 snowstorm. This has to do with downed trees mostly. So the ice has to be pretty bad to bring down trees, and I don't think that's happened in awhile. Curiously, the block in back of me usually doesn't lose power. Haven't lost power in winter, though that Oct storm was winter temps, but not enough to freeze pipes. It's such a threat I have installed water pressure backup pumps for sump pumps, since we typically do not lose water ( though one town did from some reason during Sandy, according to the contractor who installed it ).