February 3-4 significant icing event for the interior, some sleet/snow possible. Coast mostly rain.

[forkyfork]

oh boy sleet and freezing rain i'm so excited 

[NJwx85]

Just now, MJO812 said:

It might not be done correcting south

A compromise between the GFS and EURO would be close to a worse case scenario for us.

[Northof78]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Big trend towards the GFS this run.

Colder surface but mid-levels remain warm.

Just an FYI, you need the warm air aloft to get the precip in the first place.

If the mid levels trend colder there will be much less precip.

Bottom line, virtually no chance of this ending up as a snow event for us.

I would be surprised now with colder/south trends if anyone (outside maybe coastal SI/LI) will not be above mid/upper 30s during storm, while 95 N&W probably a large amount of frozen/freezing. 

[IrishRob17]

13 minutes ago, snywx said:

Agree.. Just took a peek at the soundings for MGJ and its a classic sleet -> snow signature. Warm layer is between 800-850. From 850 to the surface its cold cold. Maybe .10-.15 of liquid precip

Looks like it could be a sleetfest up here for a while.

[MJO812]

I think sleet is a bigger concern in the metro area than freezing rain or ice.

[wthrmn654]

There's also the wild card,  places that have  frozen solid ground several inches deep,  and places that have a snow pack that can survive can instantly freeze any liquid that falls even if temps are a little over freezing or more marginal.  Add to the mix temps can be a few degrees lower at frozen surface  as well do to frozen ground. 

[wthrmn654]

Will this be a flash freeze type storm where temps crash extremely rapidly or will it be a gradual drop? 

[wthrmn654]

Cold air damming could also be a thing though not as common in this style storm usually that when temps are slowly rising. 

[SnowGoose69]

Not many events here go RA-FZRA but March 96 we definitely had one...not sure what the day was but the setup I'm sure was probably close to this

[hazwoper]

1 minute ago, wthrmn654 said:

Cold air damming could also be a thing though not as common in this style storm usually that when temps are slowly rising. 

It starts off warm and gets colder.  CAD is not at all in play here.

[snywx]

3 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Looks like it could be a sleetfest up here for a while.

Yeah.. By the time the heavier precip gets in here temps from the surface up to about 5000' are well below freezing. That warm layer is shallow and not very warm. Curious to see how this continues to trend. 

[wthrmn654]

Just now, hazwoper said:

It starts off warm and gets colder.  CAD is not at all in play here.

Yep.  

[EasternLI]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It might not be done correcting south

Yay, more ice...

[jm1220]

Wow, I agree that was a concerning Euro run. Hard to say right now what will happen around NYC. I’m a little concerned where I am because as far as Long Island goes, I’m in one of the coldest spots in general. Hopefully this can keep trending colder so that it’s sleet. Would add plenty of density to the snow and make it last a lot longer. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Freezing rain storms are pretty rare in these parts. Climo says if anything we are more likely to see sleet? 

[jm1220]

The main precip slug seems to be lagging a bit on the models as well which gives more time for the high and cold air to press down. 

[jm1220]

Just now, WestBabylonWeather said:

Freezing rain storms are pretty rare in these parts. Climo says if anything we are more likely to see sleet? 

Not unheard of. I remember Valentines Day 2007 was an ice storm on the south shore and sleet in NYC and north shore. Very fickle so hopefully the cold surface air is thicker. Where the main precip slug coincides with a below freezing shallow layer, there’ll be big trouble in this event I think. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Big trend towards the GFS this run.

Colder surface but mid-levels remain warm.

Just an FYI, you need the warm air aloft to get the precip in the first place.

If the mid levels trend colder there will be much less precip.

Bottom line, virtually no chance of this ending up as a snow event for us.

It certainly can wind up as some snow 50+ miles N and W. Ukie, GFS, and Euro all show that. 

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

It certainly can wind up as some snow 50+ miles N and W. Ukie, GFS, and Euro all show that. 

Not until after 18z when most of the precip is over.

[Doorman]

mt holly is on this

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

For Friday night...For Friday night...We see the departure of the frontal system.
As the cold front moves away, arctic air will rush into the
region. The mild conditions of Thursday and Friday will be
replaced by readings in the teens and 20s. The overall evolution
of the system will determine how precipitation ends. It is
typically a challenge to get a rain to ice to snow event to
occur as the precipitation is usually tapering off or ending
before the colder air arrives. However, if the colder model
solutions are right the rain/ice/snow line will collapse towards
the coast late in the event. The further north you go, the
better the chances for a lengthier period of frozen
precipitation near the end of the system. Either way, with the
temperatures likely to be crashing, the setup looks quite
favorable for a rapid freeze-up Friday night, so we will be
keeping an eye on this.We see the departure of the frontal system.
As the cold front moves away, arctic air will rush into the
region. The mild conditions of Thursday and Friday will be
replaced by readings in the teens and 20s. The overall evolution
of the system will determine how precipitation ends. It is
typically a challenge to get a rain to ice to snow event to
occur as the precipitation is usually tapering off or ending
before the colder air arrives. However, if the colder model
solutions are right the rain/ice/snow line will collapse towards
the coast late in the event. The further north you go, the
better the chances for a lengthier period of frozen
precipitation near the end of the system. Either way, with the
temperatures likely to be crashing, the setup looks quite
favorable for a rapid freeze-up Friday night, so we will be
keeping an eye on this.

[Albedoman]

4 minutes ago, Doorman said:

mt holly is on this

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=PHI&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

For Friday night...For Friday night...We see the departure of the frontal system.
As the cold front moves away, arctic air will rush into the
region. The mild conditions of Thursday and Friday will be
replaced by readings in the teens and 20s. The overall evolution
of the system will determine how precipitation ends. It is
typically a challenge to get a rain to ice to snow event to
occur as the precipitation is usually tapering off or ending
before the colder air arrives. However, if the colder model
solutions are right the rain/ice/snow line will collapse towards
the coast late in the event. The further north you go, the
better the chances for a lengthier period of frozen
precipitation near the end of the system. Either way, with the
temperatures likely to be crashing, the setup looks quite
favorable for a rapid freeze-up Friday night, so we will be
keeping an eye on this.We see the departure of the frontal system.
As the cold front moves away, arctic air will rush into the
region. The mild conditions of Thursday and Friday will be
replaced by readings in the teens and 20s. The overall evolution
of the system will determine how precipitation ends. It is
typically a challenge to get a rain to ice to snow event to
occur as the precipitation is usually tapering off or ending
before the colder air arrives. However, if the colder model
solutions are right the rain/ice/snow line will collapse towards
the coast late in the event. The further north you go, the
better the chances for a lengthier period of frozen
precipitation near the end of the system. Either way, with the
temperatures likely to be crashing, the setup looks quite
favorable for a rapid freeze-up Friday night, so we will be
keeping an eye on this.

I would not trust the Euro right now- to wishy washy. The GFS has the right idea but way overdone. Somewhere in the middle - light rain to 4-6 hours of freezing rain/sleet  then to wet snow for the LV.  Very typical scenario for an "Ohio Valley Flyer" storm event. Usual results -- is a 4-6 inch snow event for us- higher snow accumulations near the Williamsport area . I also call this "salt drainer storm event" as municipal salt supplies can take a hell of a hit in a hurry for road treatment, especially if the cold hits hard afterwards.  This upcoming pattern definitely reminds me of 1994 when I drove on snow/ice rutted roads for a week  to work.  I remember 222 / Hamilton Blvd was a complete mess where you actually had to drive along the curbs to find snow to drive on when you came to the intersections to stop as the rest of the intersection was packed down and rutted ice.  The snow drought areas of Ohio should do well on this event too.

[HeadInTheClouds]

5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not until after 18z when most of the precip is over.

Not true. A lot of posters here live along or north of 84. My 850's get below 0 by 12z on the Euro with cold air continuing to push south and it gives me .35 of liquid after 12z. I'm not saying it's right but GFS and Ukie also show that possibility. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not true. A lot of posters here live along or north of 84. My 850's get below 0 by 12z on the Euro with cold air continuing to push south and it gives me .35 of liquid after 12z. I'm not saying it's right but GFS and Ukie also show that possibility. 

You’d have to look at soundings to determine where snow would be. Might be the case that it’s warm above  850mb and you’re still sleet. But at least it wouldn’t be crippling icing. 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Not true. A lot of posters here live along or north of 84. My 850's get below 0 by 12z on the Euro with cold air continuing to push south and it gives me .35 of liquid after 12z. I'm not saying it's right but GFS and Ukie also show that possibility. 

I don't think of areas North of 84 as part of this subforum but yes you're correct.

[HeadInTheClouds]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

You’d have to look at soundings to determine where snow would be. Might be the case that it’s warm above  850mb and you’re still sleet. But at least it wouldn’t be crippling icing. 

I looked at soundings. It's snow in my area from 12z on. They are available on TT. 

[Doorman]

OPC 72 hr surface prog

stationary front - n&w gets dicey

 

 

[Northof78]

Looks like a net 'pack-add' storm rather than a net melt...

[romba]

4 minutes ago, Doorman said:

OPC 72 hr surface prog

stationary front - n&w gets dicey

 

 

WPC not buying the ice potential yet? 

[SnoSki14]

The Euro was a bit more concerning.

Places N&W of the city could have a problem but it wouldn't take much for the warmer solutions to verify.

Just got to keep watching when that high builds

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I don't think of areas North of 84 as part of this subforum but yes you're correct.

And that’s why we love Walt he’s the only one that does. I’m about 12 miles south of 84 and I often times don’t feel like I’m part of the subforum either. 
 

Yet further away from New York City on the East End of Long Island they still seem to qualify. Never quite figured that one out yet.

You could even add to that some parts of South Jersey and West Central Jersey. They also seem to make the cut and they’re further away than we are.