NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Plenty of power lines above ground in the outer boroughs. Yes but as others have said you're not going to get ice accumulating that much at 30-32 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It was never going to be more than a nascence storm for the city. The power grid is underground and the UHI factor. Depends. If you're driving and there's even a slight glaze, that's a problem. Hoping that won't be the case. People do drive in the city. It's a mess on a good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Depends. If you're driving and there's even a slight glaze, that's a problem. Hoping that won't be the case. People do drive in the city. It's a mess on a good day. Yeah, people here are very much minimizing how much even a small amount of ice accumulation can have an impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: An even blend of the 12z GFS and Euro gives you temps near 30 degrees in NYC at 12z and much, much colder by 15z. At 15z the GFS is down to 22 degrees at HPN. The GFS drops quite a bit of liquid between 12z and 18z compared to the Euro. Yes but other models are even warmer, it’s likely best to just toss the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Depends. If you're driving and there's even a slight glaze, that's a problem. Hoping that won't be the case. People do drive in the city. It's a mess on a good day. We live in the same township and they use a lot of ice melt on the roads so I don't see much of a problem here on the roads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I think this actually has a higher ice accretion potential than many are giving it credit for. Low level cold air is going to drain down to the coast pretty well while the mid-levels are likely going to remain torched. We still have a considerable snowpack on the ground, and even with rain it's not going to completely disappear. Likewise, the cold air really means business here. I was originally thinking this would be either rain or snow for the area a few days ago, but I am genuinely concerned about a good bit of ice accretion here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes but as others have said you're not going to get ice accumulating that much at 30-32 degrees. On outer-borough power lines? I think ice'd accumulate on those at 30 degrees. Roads and sidewalks in NYC are another story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Yes but other models are even warmer, it’s likely best to just toss the GFS The RGEM is warmer but temperatures plummet after 15z. 0.2" still falls on the RGEM between 18z and 00z. The Euro only has a trace during the same period. That's the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Eduardo said: On outer-borough power lines? I think ice'd accumulate on those at 30 degrees. Roads and sidewalks in NYC are another story though. If you blend the Euro and GFS it ends up not being that big of a deal in NYC itself. Sure, if you take the GFS verbatim then it could be a much bigger issue. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, USCG RS said: I think this actually has a higher ice accretion potential than many are giving it credit for. Low level cold air is going to drain down to the coast pretty well while the mid-levels are likely going to remain torched. We still have a considerable snowpack on the ground, and even with rain it's not going to completely disappear. Likewise, the cold air really means business here. I was originally thinking this would be either rain or snow for the area a few days ago, but I am genuinely concerned about a good bit of ice accretion here. We have a barometer in this storm. How fast does KSWF change over to sleet/snow. If they don't end up getting that much ZR up in Orange County it means the colder air is penetrating farther SE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Current Critical Thickness Prog & Intellicast Rain/Snow Radar Overlay matches up nicely... I think most of the metro will warm sector until the bitter end -link to radar for those on the fringe - https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current spc meso https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes but as others have said you're not going to get ice accumulating that much at 30-32 degrees. Amen. Not in the cement jungle during daylight hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Yeah this snow pack isn't going very far quickly, and it's only 40 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 10 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: We have a barometer in this storm. How fast does KSWF change over to sleet/snow. If they don't end up getting that much ZR up in Orange County it means the colder air is penetrating farther SE. Also obs. from irishrob17 and wdrag showing the front and it’s progressing from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said: Also obs. from irishrob and wdrag showing the front and it’s progressing from the northwest. Will be key to see just how warm places actually get to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, Doorman said: Current Critical Thickness Prog & Intellicast Rain/Snow Radar Overlay matches up nicely... I think most of the metro will warm sector until the bitter end -link to radar for those on the fringe - https://www.wunderground.com/maps/radar/current spc meso https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19&parm=pmsl# LOL, this means absolutely nothing. The temperatures will reach the lower to mid 40's region wide tomorrow and that has been well forecasted for several days. The plunge begins late tomorrow night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 13 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Lots of rain coming, should melt everything by Friday. You got 4 weenies for this. The statement may be overly simplistic given the complexity of the phasing with this system But…when push comes to shove from these models, high probability of validity for the 5 boroughs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, the_other_guy said: You got 4 weenies for this. The statement may be overly simplistic given the complexity of the phasing with this system But…when push comes to shove from these models, high probability of validity for the 5 boroughs He gets like this with every storm that doesn't drop a foot of snow or more on his backyard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: He gets like this with every storm that doesn't drop a foot of snow or more on his backyard. Yeh, I get the personal issues. But if there is possible validity in the statement, that has to be acknowledged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: He gets like this with every storm that doesn't drop a foot of snow or more on his backyard. It's called being realistic. I acknowledged the icing potential further north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Up here by HPN I am concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's called being realistic. I acknowledged the icing potential further north. Even if you took a blend of the GFS and Euro and sprinkled in a touch of the RGEM and the NAM, you still end up with a pretty nasty ice storm for the NW half of the sub forum and issues all the way into LI and CNJ. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Yeah this snow pack isn't going very far quickly, and it's only 40 today Daytime 40 is one thing, two straight nights above freezing and tomorrow night with rain and approaching 50 is another. Although out on LI there is so much it probably won't be all gone but in the five boroughs i'd expect very little left on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said: Up here by HPN I am concerned. I would agree HPN to about SWF is going to be the real danger zone here. North of there more sleet/snow, south of there minimal frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 37 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The RGEM is warmer but temperatures plummet after 15z. 0.2" still falls on the RGEM between 18z and 00z. The Euro only has a trace during the same period. That's the difference. Honestly 0.2 qpf of ice during daytime after heavy rain is going to be nothing for NYC Metro. The only scenario that would be a real ice storm for NYC is if GFS is right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: Honestly 0.2 qpf of ice during daytime after heavy rain is going to be nothing for NYC Metro. The only scenario that would be a real ice storm for NYC is if GFS is right. Daytime? Temperatures are in the lower 20's outside of the city and it's the first week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Honestly 0.2 qpf of ice during daytime after heavy rain is going to be nothing for NYC Metro. The only scenario that would be a real ice storm for NYC is if GFS is right. Don't underestimate .1 or .2 of ice. It could cause problems and you could fall on your ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 15 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Daytime 40 is one thing, two straight nights above freezing and tomorrow night with rain and approaching 50 is another. Although out on LI there is so much it probably won't be all gone but in the five boroughs i'd expect very little left on Friday morning. Went to riverhead it was 46, came back home it was 40 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Don't underestimate .1 or .2 of ice. It could cause problems and you could fall on your ass. I don't think that happens in the city especially Manhattan. North and West is different world. Outer boroughs maybe but probably has to be below 32 for a sustained period of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Daytime? Temperatures are in the lower 20's outside of the city and it's the first week of February. I said in the city, different world outside of the city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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