Franklin0529 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:14 PM, Eduardo said: Same here. Hoping that it doesn't damage the pack too much and that it sets the stage for something more fun Sunday into Monday! Expand Thats the one I'm interested in. The Sunday/ Monday deal is our best chance at snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:07 PM, jm1220 said: UK and GGEM seem considerably warmer than GFS. Starting to think GFS is out to lunch and many of us get rain to maybe brief snow at the end. Expand For NYC metro and Long island yes, but for well N and W Ukie has us changing to frozen after midnight Thursday night. Hoping for sleet/snow rather than ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:20 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: For NYC metro and Long island yes, but for well N and W Ukie has us changing to frozen after midnight Thursday night. Hoping for sleet/snow rather than ice. Expand These are the types of setups where some locations aren't going to know exactly what they will end up with till the last minute or in the middle of it........Thats why it will be important for the NWS to warn against various possible outcomes.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The Great Ice Storm of 1998 was no joke either. 1 - 3 inches of ice in parts of NH are reported in the article, but I witnessed a few microclimate pockets first hand that saw 5+ The trees in those areas of forest that looked straight out of WW1, very surreal. Nothing but shattered trunks, if anything was still standing at all. Long days and nights of constantly crashing trees and branches.. It was a once in a lifetime event....I hope. Side note: The estimated load of one inch of icing on a 25 ft tree is 1 ton of ice. Put 3 inches of ice on a 75 tree and look out below! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:32 PM, LawdogGRNJ said: The Great Ice Storm of 1998 was no joke either. 1 - 3 inches of ice in parts of NH are reported in the article, but I witnessed a few microclimate pockets first hand that saw 5+ The trees in those areas of forest that looked straight out of WW1, very surreal. Nothing but shattered trunks, if anything was still standing at all. Long days and nights of constantly crashing trees and branches.. It was a once in a lifetime event....I hope. Side note: The estimated load of one inch of icing on a 25 ft tree is 1 ton of ice. Put 3 inches of ice on a 75 tree and look out below! Expand That was a devastating ice storm in Montreal and southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 4:10 PM, the_other_guy said: Truth is, if you live south or east of 287, ice storms verify. There is no topography to hold the surface cold and, in NYC , too much cement if its marginally cold. 1994 comes to mind. The prolonged sleet storm Valentines 2007 also comes to mind. It is rare. NYC metro is likely looking at a cold rain with some icing N and W. Expand This isn't your typical SWFE setup with retreating cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 The soundings for the 12z GFS support mostly freezing rain North of I-78 in NJ and the Hudson Valley beginning between 00z and 06z Friday. Just look at 850mb temps compared to the surface and it's easy to see why the GFS is painting such a horrid picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:36 PM, NJwx85 said: This isn't your typical SWFE setup with retreating cold. Expand This is a fair point. Still (and I could end up dead wrong), my money wouldn't be on a ZR event in NYC proper. N&W is a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 The 12z Saturday morning panel is even worse. The far interior flips to sleet with the mid levels cooling but the city flips to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:42 PM, Eduardo said: This is a fair point. Still (and I could end up dead wrong), my money wouldn't be on a ZR event in NYC proper. N&W is a different story though. Expand The coast actually has a potential to see more ZR than the far interior because the colder air is filtering in and that will eventually change over to more sleet the farther NW you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:36 PM, NJwx85 said: This isn't your typical SWFE setup with retreating cold. Expand But will the high build in fast enough to drop those surface temps. Consensus says no. If it does then it would be an ice storm and surface temps would likely trend even colder. The snow cover would also help keep us cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:45 PM, SnoSki14 said: But will the high build in fast enough to drop those surface temps. Consensus says no. If it does then it would be an ice storm and surface temps would likely trend even colder. The snow cover would also help keep us cold. Expand If the GFS is correct, the surface is already down to the lower 20's by 06z Saturday for the Hudson Valley and interior NNJ. 32 degrees in NYC and drops from there. The heaviest precip falls after 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 4:49 PM, Big Jims Videos said: It just happened a few weeks ago. 60 car pileups in Jersey, etc. That was a glaze at bad timing. Expand This type of weather is a winter bonus for auto body shops. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:48 PM, LoboLeader1 said: This type of weather is a winter bonus for auto body shops. Expand Hopefully the NWS doesn't down play this and gets the warnings out early so that most people stay home and the roadways can be properly treated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:43 PM, NJwx85 said: The 12z Saturday morning panel is even worse. The far interior flips to sleet with the mid levels cooling but the city flips to ice. Expand Between 1-2” of QPF would make for a frozen mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:48 PM, LoboLeader1 said: This type of weather is a winter bonus for auto body shops. Expand ...and a nightmare for insurance claims adjusters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So based on model timing the worst of the storm would be Friday afternoon. I can't imagine the mess the commute will be that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:56 PM, matt8204 said: ...and a nightmare for insurance claims adjusters. Expand No doubt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:44 PM, NJwx85 said: The coast actually has a potential to see more ZR than the far interior because the colder air is filtering in and that will eventually change over to more sleet the farther NW you get. Expand Yeah I see what you're saying. There's a higher-than-normal chance of legit ZR to the coast with this setup for sure. But, considering climo and the GFS's westward correction with this past weekend's storm, I'm thinking the coast and city'll dodge the bullet this time around. Again, I could end up wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 The 12z NAM was still well out of range but it's at the point where you would expect it to be, over amped and warm. But it's actually not that warm. Look at those surface temps. 32 degrees where it's showing plain rain and temperatures only go down from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 A Cornucopia of Potpourri on the GFS. An eclectic mix of winter delights and it has almost 4" of liquid equivalent to produce whatever: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 5:44 PM, NJwx85 said: The coast actually has a potential to see more ZR than the far interior because the colder air is filtering in and that will eventually change over to more sleet the farther NW you get. Expand Agree.. Just took a peek at the soundings for MGJ and its a classic sleet -> snow signature. Warm layer is between 800-850. From 850 to the surface its cold cold. Maybe .10-.15 of liquid precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 EURO trended slightly flatter and cooler. Stronger HP in good position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Euro looking colder this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Temps hit freezing in NYC proper by 12Z Friday on EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Once again though we are trying to predict what will happen several days out, and we won't know the outcome till what, Friday? So I'm watching this one because my son has a class at the Bronx Zoo Saturday and commutes from CNJ. They probably don't cancel if there isn't a strong consensus, and that could be a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 That's a concerning euro run given what the gfs is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 Big trend towards the GFS this run. Colder surface but mid-levels remain warm. Just an FYI, you need the warm air aloft to get the precip in the first place. If the mid levels trend colder there will be much less precip. Bottom line, virtually no chance of this ending up as a snow event for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LAVistaNY Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 What is the timing for the icing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 On 2/1/2022 at 6:17 PM, EasternLI said: That's a concerning euro run given what the gfs is showing. Expand It might not be done correcting south 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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