WestBabylonWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 hours ago, forkyfork said: zzz This either means he’s not impressed or it’s gonna ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 the GFS being this cold is certainly a red flag. it often underdoes CAD, so I would imagine that it would be even colder at the surface if this synoptic setup verifies with a 1044 mb HP in an ideal spot for cold air drainage scary stuff. let's see how this trends over the next couple of days 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: 18z GFS freezing rain. For as much as I’d use the “typical paring down” metric for determining ice accretions I also am reminded that temperatures will be tumbling down as this happens. Not a very pretty look regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 It would take a lot going right for there to be snow down to NYC with this. There’s cold at the surface but a nasty warm layer above from the warm air being lifted in the overrunning. I think the ice storm makes sense here but the question is where. Probably the first time ever I’m rooting for the sleet storm. It’ll make the snowpack way denser and bulletproof. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Upton and Mount Holly really downplaying this potential -Mount Holly says only icing in northwest Jersey and the Poconos....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Upton and Mount Holly really downplaying this potential -Mount Holly says only icing in northwest Jersey and the Poconos....... Going with the Euro I presume. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Upton and Mount Holly really downplaying this potential -Mount Holly says only icing in northwest Jersey and the Poconos....... That's fair until the other models trend towards GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Going with the Euro I presume. Climo too. True ice storms are rare for many spots in our area 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Climo too. True ice storms are rare for many spots in our area This is kind of a unique setup for us. Usually the cold air is departing. This is the setup you normally see over the Southern plains or TN Valley. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Now that I’m back in Albany I might get back to back snowstorms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Best chance for NYC snow might be for 2 separate waves. wave one amped and bring down cold air before wave 2 for snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Best chance for NYC snow might be for 2 separate waves. wave one amped and bring down cold air before wave 2 for snow. That does seem to be what the 18Z GFS is trying to do. Right now I'd disregard it until it has more support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Sleet is probably the best outcome here, if there is snow left out ahead of this storm it will cement it to make sure it lasts throughout Feburary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Apocalypse if the GFS is right about the ice, especially eastern PA into north Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 32 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: That does seem to be what the 18Z GFS is trying to do. Right now I'd disregard it until it has more support. Euro went towards it with the wave on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 22 minutes ago, gpsnavigator said: Apocalypse if the GFS is right about the ice, especially eastern PA into north Jersey. Iceocalypse? Let's hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Ice arrives very early Thursday morning on the 0z NAM to the N and W before going over to rain. Looks colder initially in the BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 30 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Ice arrives very early Thursday morning on the 0z NAM to the N and W before going over to rain. Looks colder initially in the BL. Initially yes but the main storm is way north and warm on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 The GfS has shown this anafrontal type stuff before only to be brutally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: The GfS has shown this anafrontal type stuff before only to be brutally wrong. The front and wave or waves have plenty of moisture associated with this setup. The big question with this is how quickly the cold air pushes south and what precip type is the result and where. That is complicated and has not been resolved yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 1, 2022 Author Share Posted February 1, 2022 It’s too early for the NAM. Need to wait till tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: The front and wave or waves have plenty of moisture associated with this setup. The big question with this is how quickly the cold air pushes south and what precip type is the result and where. That is complicated and has not been resolved yet. Yeah it's a pretty good moisture feed for a dampening wave. Lots of areas should get pretty significant snow over a relatively long duration. It just appears probably not us... again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, NJwx85 said: It’s too early for the NAM. Need to wait till tomorrow night. Maybe even Wednesday night. The Nam was atrocious in it's long range with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, eduggs said: Yeah it's a pretty good moisture feed for a dampening wave. Lots of areas should get pretty significant snow over a relatively long duration. It just appears probably not us... again. The farther north and west you are the better chance you have with this one. I'm 20 miles north of 84 so hoping for some snow after initial rain, then sleet/ZR. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It’s too early for the NAM. Need to wait till tomorrow night. The height field ended up slightly more meridional on the NAM. Same thing on the ICON. That caused the SLP to gain more latitude. The GFS was much flatter... particularly 12z. I think the NAM will be more right than the GFS here. But I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: The farther north and west you are the better chance you have with this one. I'm 20 miles north of 84 so hoping for some snow after initial rain, then sleet/ZR. We will see. You're obviously in a much better spot than most of us for this one. I think you have a great shot at an extended period of wintry precip. But I still expect that the primary snow axis will be something like Ithaca to Saratoga. I'd like to see the EC shift BGM to ALB and then AVP to POU. Huge shifts would be nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Gfs is colder on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 When’s the last time Manhattan had a legit ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Yup. Nice and cold. The northern stream "shortwave" shifted slightly east, forcing a continued slight flattening of the height field. Probably slightly less QPF than the more amped models, but continued colder. Like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is colder on this run You got that right. Im not sure if it's right but I hope so. The GFS tends to be stubborn when it locks onto something but then eventually caves to other guidance. It did that with the last storm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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