NJwx85 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The models over the past two cycles have trended towards a deeper trough. What once looked like a major warmup and a cutter now looks like a very messy situation. The 06z GFS brings a lot of sleet and ZR to much of the area on Friday after starting as rain Thursday night. The Euro isn’t that much different and neither is the Canadian. Five days out, discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 AO dive during this period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Trend toward Euro on 12Z GFS for the late week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 12:57 PM, NJwx85 said: The models over the past two cycles have trended towards a deeper trough. What once looked like a major warmup and a cutter now looks like a very messy situation. The 06z GFS brings a lot of sleet and ZR to much of the area on Friday after starting as rain Thursday night. The Euro isn’t that much different and neither is the Canadian. Five days out, discuss here. Expand The 00z Euro and Ukie are significantly different and colder from the GFS and both bring good snows to the area. 12z GFS has trended more south and wave is weaker which is good if you want snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 4:22 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: The 00z Euro and Ukie are significantly different and colder from the GFS and both bring good snows to the area. 12z GFS has trended more south and wave is weaker which is good if you want snow. Y’all got any of those maps?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 4:46 PM, North and West said: Y’all got any of those maps? . Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12Z Cmc has also trended colder. Give area frozen precip after initial rain. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 4:10 PM, HVSnowLover said: Trend toward Euro on 12Z GFS for the late week storm. Expand 12Z UKMET is good for 9" on Friday in the metro area. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 4:53 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: 12Z Cmc has also trended colder. Give area frozen precip after initial rain. Expand I like the trends so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 4:49 PM, HeadInTheClouds said: . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 4:54 PM, wxman said: 12Z UKMET is good for 9" on Friday in the metro area. Expand Ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 5:08 PM, Rjay said: Ice Expand Snow nw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 5:11 PM, Rjay said: Snow nw Expand Looks colder at 850 in the earlier panels based on my quick look, way out there anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 wherever the boundary sets up, just to its north will get a lot of frozen/snow, right now GFS is mostly north with maybe 1-4” with a little late development, CMC, EURO, UKIE range from near us to well south... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 5:11 PM, Rjay said: Snow nw Expand That would be a nasty I've event NYC through LI. Here would be snow but right on edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northof78 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 5:29 PM, EastonSN+ said: That would be a nasty I've event NYC through LI. Here would be snow but right on edge. Expand 850s are colder earlier, would not be prolonged or accreting ice in my experience with this set up, some of that is snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Would rather see a cold rain as opposed to dealing with sleet/ZR. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 5:40 PM, Northof78 said: Expand A long way to go. The eventual outcome will likely be different than this modeled solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 5:44 PM, LoboLeader1 said: Would rather see a cold rain as opposed to dealing with sleet/ZR. Expand We get plenty of cold rain in November and December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Euro bumped north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z Euro just came in warmer with a rain event, but obviously a long way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Ukie unfortunately is the outlier right now but this can still definitely change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gmendevils8204 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Really don’t want to see icy conditions. Snow or a cold rain, please. Ice can create disastrous, deadly situations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I can’t mentally handle another week of flip flopping models. I’ll check back on this thread Wednesday. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:43 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: I can’t mentally handle another week of flip flopping models. I’ll check back on this thread Wednesday. Expand Frontal waves are zzzzz 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:34 PM, HVSnowLover said: Ukie unfortunately is the outlier right now but this can still definitely change. Expand We want less phasing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:43 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: I can’t mentally handle another week of flip flopping models. I’ll check back on this thread Wednesday. Expand Me too I’ll check in Wednesday. I’m also in for the no zr party. Don’t need that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:42 PM, gmendevils8204 said: Really don’t want to see icy conditions. Snow or a cold rain, please. Ice can create disastrous, deadly situations. Expand I definitely don’t want rain. The ground up here is rock hard and with our snow pack even moderate rain would be a disaster as the ground won’t absorb it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 6:43 PM, WestBabylonWeather said: I can’t mentally handle another week of flip flopping models. I’ll check back on this thread Wednesday. Expand This one is not as likely to be as wild as the last one, first of all we already have snowcover so there is less desperation and also the upside potential is not nearly as high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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