SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 It's tough to get too excited with the NAO/AO so positive. But the PNA should help us out at least once this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Truth be told, I would welcome a warm 2nd half. Just not a lot of confidence yet how that timeframe shakes out. Need to wait it out a bit longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 In my view, things will only trend warmer with time; we should appreciate classic winter weather for our area when we can get it (not just referring to snow). People who prefer warmth will have plenty to enjoy as time moves on. (Referring to AGW - winter here may be very different in several decades) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Seems to be what Don was alluding to, muted MJO so lower influence. The mjo this morning is taking its time to possibly going onto 4 which would mean colder temps for a period longer than expected. I do think it will warm up at the end of February but when is a question. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 59 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That week 2 forecast does indeed look like a "torch". I guess impossible to forecast if that is static or a temporary 1 to 2 week "flip". No torch 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 50 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Right, just like you said late November and December was going to be very cold and snowy Dude you said this winter was going to be warm. Just stop with your trolling. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 15 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: In my view, things will only trend warmer with time; we should appreciate classic winter weather for our area when we can get it (not just referring to snow). People who prefer warmth will have plenty to enjoy as time moves on. Eventually winter will be over and we will be soaking in the sun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's tough to get too excited with the NAO/AO so positive. But the PNA should help us out at least once this month. I mean we should had a foot in some area with both of those positive . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's tough to get too excited with the NAO/AO so positive. But the PNA should help us out at least once this month. By mid-month the +PNA is gone, that’s a flat GOA ridge not +PNA and the cold is dumping into the west, Rockies and Plains/central CONUS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: By mid-month the +PNA is gone, that’s a flat GOA ridge not +PNA and the cold is dumping into the west, Rockies and Plains/central CONUS GOA ridge gone Try again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: By mid-month the +PNA is gone, that’s a flat GOA ridge not +PNA and the cold is dumping into the west, Rockies and Plains/central CONUS You really need to stop making predictions 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6z gefs is a - epo pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z gefs is a - epo pattern This is the one constant this year, negative EPO for most of the winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: This is the one constant this year, negative EPO for most of the winter. I rather have a - epo than a - nao 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Winter continues on the gefs 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You really need to stop making predictions The Pv never coupled which probably was a big help with the January cold. The mjo also in the cold phases helped a ton 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The Pv never coupled which probably was a big help with the January cold. The mjo also in the cold phases helped a ton Agree January was the coldest in years. 19.5 inches of snow last month was the most snow in January in several years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Was a good January down south by me, too. The most single digit lows in one month I can recall in the past several years. We underperformed in the ACY southern storm and only got an inch or two, but we made up for it big time. 22-24 inches of snow off the top of my head in January. Good spot for nor’easters that don’t mix at the shore, though I’m about 15 miles inland of the immediate coast. Anything this month I’ll take as gravy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Keep an eye on Tuesday. Passed couple days h5 looked better, got work to do still but its about all we got. besides this ice event for the northern crew 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Some hints of a coastal grazzer next tueaday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 22 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Keep an eye on Tuesday. Passed couple days h5 looked better, got work to do still but its about all we got. besides this ice event for the northern crew Yes there's actually a lot of consensus on a system for that time and models are slowly trending more amped. Nice AO drop and spike are also indicative of some coastal threat. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 No shortage of winter on the gefs 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I dont like what is happening in this forum with the weenies and personal attacks. spiraling out of control pretty quickly 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 55 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No shortage of winter on the gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 25 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Even the GFS (verbatim) shows very little precip after the rain tonight... Nothing to track other than next weeks ocean storm for now which needs some big time improvements...otherwise seasonal and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 hours ago, bluewave said: The whole chasing convection and bifurcated low thing was due to the upper low closing off late. So the low tracked further east. The +AO pattern was too progressive. The big snowstorm last February 1st was during a near record -3 to -5 -AO interval. So NYC and Newark were close to the jackpot. JFK got less than half the snowfall the other day than ISP. The 93-94 winter was -AO with a near record block over the pole. +AO more progressive favoring eastern areas -AO allowed low to close of on time with jackpot over NNJ and NYC But JFK almost always gets less than half the snowfall than the jackpot, no matter the situation. My main point being this.... NYC was never going to get 25 inches of snow. It's in a central location and jackpots are usually to the west or to the east or to the south. Look at what ACY got in January.... 33 inches. Now are we to assume that locations further south do better in a positive NAO? Of course not! And we had a negative NAO in December and all it got us was 0.3. A negative NAO is much less important for us than a west coast ridge, we need that above all else. We can't hope for perfection-- it's very rare that everything will line up perfectly, and quite frankly if there is one thing I had to pick wouldn't line up it's a negative NAO. We've had historic snowfall seasons and historic snowstorms without one (PD2 and 1993-94 and 1960-61 being cases in point.) And look how well ACY did in a positive NAO in January. We can't root or hope for perfection, because it rarely happens. I also question the value of the nao when we have south based blocks and east based blocks that do diddly for us. So rather than chasing ghosts, I'd rather have the sure thing-- which is a great Pacific. Everything else matters FAR less than that. Also, I choose not to compare JFK to ISP, because JFK would never get that kind of snowfall in any scenario unless we had a strong el nino. I choose to compare JFK against its own historical record....and for JFK getting over a foot of pure snow is an MECS. It was a great storm. Anyone from Brooklyn on east and south had a great storm and has absolutely nothing to complain or whine about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 hours ago, snowman19 said: Nothing cool about that look lol but nah, not yet, after mid-month, then I probably will lol ;-) I see 100 degrees in your future this summer, I hope you have your a/c 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: I rather have a - epo than a - nao Thats what I've been saying. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Agree January was the coldest in years. 19.5 inches of snow last month was the most snow in January in several years. and you had a big storm last week with over a foot of snow, you didn't need a negative NAO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: Was a good January down south by me, too. The most single digit lows in one month I can recall in the past several years. We underperformed in the ACY southern storm and only got an inch or two, but we made up for it big time. 22-24 inches of snow off the top of my head in January. Good spot for nor’easters that don’t mix at the shore, though I’m about 15 miles inland of the immediate coast. Anything this month I’ll take as gravy. Most of us coasties have had our seasonal snowfall for the entire winter already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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