EasternLI Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 WAG but the 14-16th period looks interesting. Based on the big picture view. With a TPV lobe pulling out and some sort of transient PNA spike. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 31degs.(26/36) or -3. Reached 48 here yesterday. Today: 42-48----upper 30's by tomorrow AM, wind s. to e. and n. by tomorrow AM., rain all day. Highlight>>>26, freezing rain in Dallas this AM, snow in PM and 15 tomorrow AM for them from this system, 40's by weekend. No real snow for 10 days on any model, which were warmer today anyway. 43*(99%RH) here at 6am-murky, but visibility is about 3.0mi. 44* at 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It will be interesting to see how things actually unfold. Agree The cold air modeled for February isn't typical in La Nina's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 hours ago, eduggs said: Those aren't perfectly correlated. There are no guarantees, only probabilities. Like warmth also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Pretty clear trends on the new ensemble guidance tonight that a mild pattern starts to set in during mid-month You have been saying that since December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said: and the rain begins. Bye snow pack 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 This year seems to be confirming what has been past experience with snowfall jackpots. The +PNA opens the door to heavy snowfall events. But NYC and nearby NJ need a -AO and -NAO to have the heaviest totals in their area. Long Island can get the heaviest snowfall with either a +AO or -AO in a +PNA. This was the case in January and with Juno in 2015. KUs can close off late with a +AO due to the lack of a 50/50 and weaker ridging in SE Canada. So eastern sections into New England picked ip the 30”+ totals. Last year we had a near record -AO and Newark and NNJ was the big snowfall leader relative to the local area. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: This year seems to be confirming what has been past experience with snowfall jackpots. The +PNA opens the door to heavy snowfall events. But NYC and nearby NJ need a -AO and -NAO to have the heaviest totals in their area. Long Island can get the heaviest snowfall with either a +AO or -AO in a +PNA. This was the case in January and with Juno in 2015. KUs can close off late with a +AO due to the lack of a 50/50 and weaker ridging in SE Canada. So eastern sections into New England picked ip the 30”+ totals. Last year we had a near record -AO and Newark and NNJ was the big snowfall leader relative to the local area. Agree The last storm would have been more tucked in if we had a negative nao. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Give me one, fun trackable event this month that isn’t a sleet/ice/rain storm and I’ll quit while I’m ahead. It is also my birthday month, might travel to upstate NY for some winter hiking with my wife, especially if it doesn’t appear likely I’ll be getting a snowy bday present any time soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: This year seems to be confirming what has been past experience with snowfall jackpots. The +PNA opens the door to heavy snowfall events. But NYC and nearby NJ need a -AO and -NAO to have the heaviest totals in their area. Long Island can get the heaviest snowfall with either a +AO or -AO in a +PNA. This was the case in January and with Juno in 2015. KUs can close off late with a +AO due to the lack of a 50/50 and weaker ridging in SE Canada. So eastern sections into New England picked ip the 30”+ totals. Last year we had a near record -AO and Newark and NNJ was the big snowfall leader relative to the local area. I thought it was because of chasing the convection and the bifurcated low? Because honestly JFK is part of the city and did fine in the storm so we cant say that NYC needs a -NAO. NYC got over 50 inches of snow in 1993-94 with a +NAO too. It was by chance that Manhattan didn't do well in this storm, this storm could have easily been slightly to the west. This storm was a lot better than last year's so give me this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree The cold air modeled for February isn't typical in La Nina's February 1996 February 2006 and February 2020 beg to differ (of course they came after El Ninos) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Beyond mid month is still questionable. I personally wouldn't feel good about any solution until we have decent agreement between eps and gefs. Going to have to watch that TPV and what that does too. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Beyond mid month is still questionable. I personally wouldn't feel good about any solution until we have decent agreement between eps and gefs. Going to have to watch that TPV and what that does too. Thanks the GEPS looks similar but a wider trough (possibly due to member spread). Hate to ask but was the EPS similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 When was the last time we had a heavy snowfall from an overrunning event? 2003 was the ultimate example. Maybe November 2018? Seems to be going extinct like the Alberta clipper did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I thought it was because of chasing the convection and the bifurcated low? Because honestly JFK is part of the city and did fine in the storm so we cant say that NYC needs a -NAO. NYC got over 50 inches of snow in 1993-94 with a +NAO too. It was by chance that Manhattan didn't do well in this storm, this storm could have easily been slightly to the west. This storm was a lot better than last year's so give me this pattern. The whole chasing convection and bifurcated low thing was due to the upper low closing off late. So the low tracked further east. The +AO pattern was too progressive. The big snowstorm last February 1st was during a near record -3 to -5 -AO interval. So NYC and Newark were close to the jackpot. JFK got less than half the snowfall the other day than ISP. The 93-94 winter was -AO with a near record block over the pole. +AO more progressive favoring eastern areas -AO allowed low to close of on time with jackpot over NNJ and NYC 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: When was the last time we had a heavy snowfall from an overrunning event? 2003 was the ultimate example. Maybe November 2018? Seems to be going extinct like the Alberta clipper did. I loved November 2018. It wasn't huge, but it was a widespread 6-9" over a pretty large swath of land. The snow came in like a wall that afternoon. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, WarrenCtyWx said: I loved November 2018. It wasn't huge, but it was a widespread 6-9" over a pretty large swath of land. The snow came in like a wall that afternoon. Agree! It's just odd we seem to be not getting heavy snowfalls from these anymore. Feels like we had a lot 2000 through 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks the GEPS looks similar but a wider trough (possibly due to member spread). Hate to ask but was the EPS similar? Some similarities. Remember too that the others go out just a little bit further. Have to keep an eye on that TPV and where it goes beyond this. Something to look for on future runs. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Latest MJO is not bad at all 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Some similarities. Remember too that the others go out just a little bit further. Have to keep an eye on that TPV and where it goes beyond this. Something to look for on future runs. Thanks. Seems the EPS is the quickest to bring back the ridge. Statistically, isn't it common to have a negative NAO return by the end of March flowing a December appearance? May be a la Nina thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Latest MJO is not bad at all Seems to be what Don was alluding to, muted MJO so lower influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Some similarities. Remember too that the others go out just a little bit further. Have to keep an eye on that TPV and where it goes beyond this. Something to look for on future runs. That’s a great example of the split forcing pattern. The forcing near the dateline and WPAC is driving that ridge off the West Coast. While the IO convection is trying to pull the trough back from the East Coast. So the model comes to a compromise between the competing areas of tropical covection. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agree! It's just odd we seem to be not getting heavy snowfalls from these anymore. Feels like we had a lot 2000 through 2009. Forgot to mention the FORGOTTEN SNOWSTORM. March 2011 we had one however was only 4 to 6. Forgotten as everyone said that winter ended on Feb 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: That’s a great example of the split forcing pattern. The forcing near the dateline and WPAC is driving that ridge off the West Coast. While the IO convection is trying to pull the trough back from the East Coast. So the model come to a compromise between the multiple areas of tropical convection. That week 2 forecast does indeed look like a "torch". I guess impossible to forecast if that is static or a temporary 1 to 2 week "flip". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: That’s a great example of the split forcing pattern. The forcing near the dateline and WPAC is driving that ridge off the West Coast. While the IO convection is trying to pull the trough back from the East Coast. So the model comes to a compromise between the multiple areas of tropical convection. Yeah, was just looking through that stuff from 00z. That's exactly what it looks like. Something like that. Will have to keep an eye on that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You have been saying that since December. Right, just like you said late November and December was going to be very cold and snowy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 20 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Some similarities. Remember too that the others go out just a little bit further. Have to keep an eye on that TPV and where it goes beyond this. Something to look for on future runs. Severely positive NAM/++NAO, ++AO, there will be nothing to stop a SE ridge pump 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 14 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That week 2 forecast does indeed look like a "torch". I guess impossible to forecast if that is static or a temporary 1 to 2 week "flip". Not necessarily. That's tropical stuff not 500mb anomalies. Have to be careful there. Especially later in the period. Tropical convection is the most complicated parameter on modeling. Best to just monitor trends. I wouldn't read too much into those RMM charts right now either. If we're dealing with competing areas of forcing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Severely positive NAM/++NAO, ++AO, there will be nothing to stop a SE ridge pump That's cool. You already put away the winter attire. Nothing to worry about then. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: That's cool. You already put away the winter attire. Nothing to worry about then. Nothing cool about that look lol but nah, not yet, after mid-month, then I probably will lol ;-) 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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