February 2022

[Volcanic Winter]

I don’t think historically the NYC area is a bad area for snow, it almost certainly isn’t as good now as it was for the majority of the last millennium as we are at a much higher baseline temperature. This should affect NYC more than Boston at this point, with more borderline rain events and more frequently falling on the wrong side of the temperature gradient. 
 

I can’t comment on how historical storm tracks might’ve looked, but I’d be willing to bet going back 4-500 years this area had way less rain events and more frequent snow events, in storms and systems that would likely produce rain here now. 
 

I’d be so curious about historical records from before the 1880s, but actual data is sparse. I’m wondering if it was colder and dryer or colder and snowier. 
 

Having better data from the time of the LIA would’ve been fascinating, as it had already ended according to most by the 1850’s / 1860’s. Totally different climatological situation of course. 
 

Edit: I’m not really talking about those massive historic 20” + events, as that could be tied to the warming SSTs, but just the frequency of average / moderate snowfall events. 

[gravitylover]

3 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I don’t think historically the NYC area is a bad area for snow, it almost certainly isn’t as good now as it was for the majority of the last millennium as we are at a much higher baseline temperature. This should affect NYC more than Boston at this point, with more borderline rain events and more frequently falling on the wrong side of the temperature gradient. 
 

I can’t comment on how historical storm tracks might’ve looked, but I’d be willing to bet going back 4-500 years this area had way less rain events and more frequent snow events, in storms and systems that would likely produce rain here now. 
 

I’d be so curious about historical records from before the 1880s, but actual data is sparse. I’m wondering if it was colder and dryer or colder and snowier. 
 

Having better data from the time of the LIA would’ve been fascinating, as it had already ended according to most by the 1850’s / 1860’s. Totally different climatological situation of course. 

One thing that always stuck out to me when reading the early history of the area is the early Dutch settlers often mentioned snow on the ground, on Manhattan island, well into what we consider to be spring now. For the area to have a snowpack well into March was quite common and in many cases agricultural seasons were much shorter than they are now with cold and snow being a thing at both ends of the winter. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That's an excellent way of looking at it-- we need to view teleconnections together, not in isolation.  And we further have to subdivide them into north vs south and east vs west based.  But here's another thought.  Is the NYC area just in a bad area for storm tracks....we saw this in the 80s too- there are two predominant tracks for storms, one is south of the area and the other is north of the area.  We've seen this in a few other recent winters too, where places both south and north of us see less snow in individual storms than we do.  Maybe the NYC is just a bad area for snow unless everything lines up perfectly?

 

It’s been easier for ISP to get 12”+snowstorms than NYC since 2010.There have been 10 events at ISP and only 6 in NYC. Both stations require a strong +PNA. But the -AO is more important for NYC. It allows the upper low to close off further to the SW. While a -AO is still favored for ISP, they can still get 12”+ events with a +AO. Slower closing off storms with a +AO can give them 12”+ since they are located further east.

 

10 snowstorm 500 mb composite since 2010 for ISP

 

6 snowstorm 500 mb composite for NYC

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s been easier for ISP to get 12”+snowstorms than NYC since 2010.There have been 10 events at ISP and only 6 in NYC. Both stations require a strong +PNA. But the -AO is more important for NYC. It allows the upper low to close off further to the SW. While a -AO is still favored for ISP, they can still get 12”+ events with a +AO. Slower closing off storms with a +AO can give them 12”+ since they are located further east.

 

10 snowstorm 500 mb composite since 2010 for ISP

 

6 snowstorm 500 mb composite for NYC

 

 

 

Chris, if we further limit the set to include 20"+ snowstorms only and compare NYC, JFK and ISP, how do they compare?  Let's extend it to the last 30 year climate period (1991-2020).  It makes sense that ISP requires less than what NYC requires....but I find it interesting that ACY, which is south of us, also seems to be fine with a +AO.  Maybe ACY can be included in the set too, it's not like the January storm was an isolated event, it also happened in 1989.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

I think part of the problem is some people don't even learn a little bit. 

I mean extreme emotional responses to mundane events. "Waaaahhhh I'm not the one getting more than 4"..."

You're just realizing these two things now? 

No I also thought about it back in the 1980s when all of this was happening, but because the 2000s and 2010s were so good for snow, I just put it in the back of my mind.

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be partly cloudy and milder. A rain or snow shower is possible as a reinforcing shot of cold air will move into the region.

Overall, the closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot. A system could bring some precipitation to the region late next week. A warming trend could develop afterward. The duration of this warming remains uncertain.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was +19.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.617.

On February 24 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.968 (RMM). The February 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.090 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.1° (1.2° above normal).

 

[CIK62]

The last 2 days of February are averaging  36degs.(26/45) or -2.

Month to date is  37.5[+1.8].       February should end at  37.4[+1.5].

Reached 40 here yesterday.

Today:  43-47, wind w. to n., few clouds, 23 by tomorrow AM.

Heatwave starts March 7 and lasts a week?

30*(60%RH) here at 6am.        40* at Noon.       47* at 3pm.      Reached 50 at 4:30pm.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and cold. A few places could see a rain or snow shower during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 51°

Tomorrow will be fair and colder.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.3°; 15-Year: 47.3°

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and cold. A few places could see a rain or snow shower during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 45°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 51°

Tomorrow will be fair and colder.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 44.8°; 15-Year: 45.1°

Newark: 30-Year: 45.8°; 15-Year: 46.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.3°; 15-Year: 47.3°

Don is mid to upper 40s considered cold? I'd argue it's actually mild today, tomorrow will be cold.

 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don is mid to upper 40s considered cold? I'd argue it's actually mild today, tomorrow will be cold.

 

40s is normal 

[bluewave]

The Euro monthly forecast for February did a great job.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro monthly forecast for February did a great job.

 

 

What did it show for March?

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

What did it show for March?

They release the new monthly forecast on the 5th of every month. So we’ll have to wait until next weekend to see the March forecast. They initialize the forecast on March 1st.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

38° and bright sunshine and the late February sun is not making a dent in the 2 inches of sleet that fell on Friday. One of the things you have to love about sleet. If I could start off any winter in the first week of December with a good six-inch sleet storm we could have snow cover for 90 consecutive days. 
 

And when I say we I mean the Hudson Valley. I know snow cover has become pretty foreign for any length of time in New York City and the coastal plain.

[Brian5671]

30 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

38° and bright sunshine and the late February sun is not making a dent in the 2 inches of sleet that fell on Friday. One of the things you have to love about sleet. If I could start off any winter in the first week of December with a good six-inch sleet storm we could have snow cover for 90 consecutive days. 
 

And when I say we I mean the Hudson Valley. I know snow cover has become pretty foreign for any length of time in New York City and the coastal plain.

The sleet piles are especially bullet proof.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

The sleet piles are especially bullet proof.

I purposely made a huge one on the uws after the last storm to see how long it will last. I’m up in Vermont currently but have to assume it’s going strong 

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, MJO812 said:

40s is normal 

Today is mild. It started cold. Poor wording on my part.

[rclab]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today is mild. It started cold. Poor wording on my part.

Good afternoon Don. Your wording is fine and understood. Some of us chronologically find 40’s cold. Stay well, as always …..

[donsutherland1]

A cooler air mass is again moving into the region. March will start out colder than normal. A system could bring some precipitation to the region late in the week. A warming trend could develop afterward.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was +19.79 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.243.

On February 25 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.901 (RMM). The February 24-adjusted amplitude was 0.970 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.2° (1.3° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

38° and bright sunshine and the late February sun is not making a dent in the 2 inches of sleet that fell on Friday. One of the things you have to love about sleet. If I could start off any winter in the first week of December with a good six-inch sleet storm we could have snow cover for 90 consecutive days. 
 

And when I say we I mean the Hudson Valley. I know snow cover has become pretty foreign for any length of time in New York City and the coastal plain.

doesn't sleet look a little dirty to you though? it doesn't have the sparkle of freshly fallen snow and doesn't look pretty as it falls.

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

It will be partly to mostly sunny and cold. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 35°

Newark: 37°

Philadelphia: 42°

It will turn milder starting tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 45.1°; 15-Year: 45.4°

Newark: 30-Year: 46.1°; 15-Year: 46.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 47.6°; 15-Year: 47.6°

[bluewave]

The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This February is the 16th winter month out of the last 21 with above normal average temperatures. It’s also a record breaking 7th warmer than normal winter in a row since 2015-2016. The new 1991-2020 normal NYC winter average temperature for NYC is 36.2°. So this is the first winter after the increase from the 1981-2010 average of 35.1°.

 

NYC

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

Feb 21….-1.1

Jan 21….+2.2

Dec 20…+1.7

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Departure
2021-2022	37.1	+0.9
2020-2021	36.1	+1.0
2019-2020	39.2	+4.1
2018-2019	36.3	+1.2
2017-2018	36.2	+1.1
2016-2017	39.3	+4.2
2015-2016	41.0	+6.0

[CIK62]

The last day of February is averaging  30degs.(25/35) or -8.

Month to date is  37.6[+1.6].       February will end at  37.3[+1.4].

Reached 50 here yesterday.

Today  34-36, wind n. to s., breezy early, m. clear.

FLASH>>>>>GEFSext. has 20" snowstorm on April Fools Day-----really!     Something is up---I mean down---CFSv2. has April 1-3 at 20 degrees BN!!!

JUST A HIC-CUP AND CONTROL MEMBER n-bd?

 

28*(45%RH) here at 6am.        39* at 4pm.       Reached 40* at 4:30pm.

 

[donsutherland1]

Despite bright sunshine, temperatures were unseasonably cold today. New York City finished February with a monthly mean temperature of 37.3°, which was 1.4° above normal.

A cooler air mass is again moving into the region. March will start out colder than normal. A system could bring some precipitation to the region late in the week. A warming trend could develop afterward.

Overall, March will likely be warmer than normal. There may also be one or two opportunities for at least some measurable snow in the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around February 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least late March.

The SOI was +12.01 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.234. For the winter, the AO averaged a preliminary +0.800. 73% of days saw positive AO readings.

On February 26 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.683 (RMM). The February 25-adjusted amplitude was 0.903 (RMM).

 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Feb was such a meh month. Some warm, some cold. Finished 1.8 degrees above normal with 7 inches of snow. Meh. 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This February is the 16th winter month out of the last 21 with above normal average temperatures. It’s also a record breaking 7th warmer than normal winter in a row since 2015-2016. The new 1991-2020 normal NYC winter average temperature for NYC is 36.2°. So this is the first winter after the increase from the 1981-2010 average of 35.1°.

 

NYC

Feb 22….+1.8

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

Feb 21….-1.1

Jan 21….+2.2

Dec 20…+1.7

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Departure
2021-2022	37.2	+1.0
2020-2021	36.1	+1.0
2019-2020	39.2	+4.1
2018-2019	36.3	+1.2
2017-2018	36.2	+1.1
2016-2017	39.3	+4.2
2015-2016	41.0	+6.0

Chris what was the average temp for the entire winter?  39.5?

 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris what was the average temp for the entire winter?  39.5?

 

It finished at 37.1° or +0.9 in NYC.  This was the 20th warmest NYC winter average temperature. So the smaller departures in the warmer climate are a bit deceptive. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0
11	1889-1890	38.4	0
12	1952-1953	38.1	0
13	1982-1983	37.9	0
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
14	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0
15	1949-1950	37.6	2
16	1974-1975	37.5	0
-	1879-1880	37.5	2
17	1953-1954	37.4	0
18	2005-2006	37.3	0
19	1991-1992	37.2	0
-	1951-1952	37.2	2
20	2021-2022	37.1	0

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

It finished at 37.1° or +0.9 in NYC.  This was the 20th warmest NYC winter average temperature. So the smaller departures in the warmer climate are a bit deceptive. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2001-2002	41.5	0
2	2015-2016	41.0	0
3	2011-2012	40.5	0
4	1931-1932	40.1	0
5	1997-1998	39.6	0
6	2016-2017	39.3	0
7	2019-2020	39.2	0
8	1990-1991	39.1	0
9	1998-1999	38.6	0
10	1948-1949	38.5	0
11	1889-1890	38.4	0
12	1952-1953	38.1	0
13	1982-1983	37.9	0
-	1936-1937	37.9	0
14	1996-1997	37.8	0
-	1932-1933	37.8	0
15	1949-1950	37.6	2
16	1974-1975	37.5	0
-	1879-1880	37.5	2
17	1953-1954	37.4	0
18	2005-2006	37.3	0
19	1991-1992	37.2	0
-	1951-1952	37.2	2
20	2021-2022	37.1	0

It's interesting how none of the pre 21st century winters averaged 40 or above besides 1931-32....what an aberration that winter was, what do you think the average winter temperature of that winter would be if it occurred now?  Also interesting that the top 5 winters are all spaced 0.5 apart from one to the next while the ones behind them are more tightly clustered.  I would put 2001-02 in a class all by itself, our mildest winter combining both snowfall totals or lack thereof lol and warm temperatures.  It  beats out 1997-98 in my book.  It would've been closer if the late March rogue storm hadn't happened in 1997-98 but I think 2001-02 still would've won because of the milder temps and still very low snowfall totals.  I think the LGA and JFK snowfall totals pre late March snowfall in 1997-98 were closer to what we saw in those places in 2001-02?  WSI has 2001-02 lapping the field for lowest WSI by a mile.

 

[FPizz]

On 2/28/2022 at 6:53 AM, CIK62 said:

The last day of February is averaging  30degs.(25/35) or -8.

Month to date is  37.6[+1.6].       February will end at  37.3[+1.4].

Reached 50 here yesterday.

Today  34-36, wind n. to s., breezy early, m. clear.

FLASH>>>>>GEFSext. has 20" snowstorm on April Fools Day-----really!     Something is up---I mean down---CFSv2. has April 1-3 at 20 degrees BN!!!

JUST A HIC-CUP AND CONTROL MEMBER n-bd?

 

28*(45%RH) here at 6am.        39* at 4pm.       Reached 40* at 4:30pm.

 

Not too far off oddly, lol.  Only missed by a few days.