EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Anyone have the 12z eps hour 360? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Foggy out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Anyone have the 12z eps hour 360? Here's the 10-15 loop. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 really nice upcoming pattern with a 2 sigma ridge over British Columbia and split flow. should get some higher-end chances after Super Bowl weekend 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Here's the 10-15 loop. Thanks, it actually starts to move towards GEPS at the end with the East Coast ridge. Obviously cannot tell if it's a temporary reload or the change that the Mets are alluding to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Snowman19 is really a troll. Giving out weenies to every poster who are forecasting cold . they need to five post his reactions too, I wonder why there isn't a function for that? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks, it actually starts to move towards GEPS at the end with the East Coast ridge. Obviously cannot tell if it's a temporary reload or the change that the Mets are alluding to. It's signaling a retrograde towards the very end. Seems due to some increased phase 2 activity from the looks of the tropical stuff. That can be a storm signal too. Gotta watch that. There could be something lurking out there before then like brooklynwx99 is saying. Afterwards, It's heading in this direction gradually I think. At least on today's edition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 February's deepest snow depth at Newark NJ since 1946...last year had 13 days with at least 10" on the ground...most on this list... date................inches....total days 10"... 2/04/1961..........26"............7 2/18/2003..........23"............6 2/12/2006..........20"............3 2/12/1983...........19"............4 2/07/1978...........19"............7 2/19/1979...........19"............3 2/14/2014...........18"..........10 2/11/1994...........18"............9 2/01/2021..........17"...........13 2/01/2011..........15"............6 2/07/1967..........15"............5 2/10/1969..........14"............4 2/10/2010..........13"............4 2/16/1958..........13"............2 2/04/1948..........11"............6 2/21/1947..........11"............2 2/09/2013..........10"............1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: Snowman19 is really a troll. Giving out weenies to every poster who are forecasting cold . That is all he's got because he is always wrong. 2 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 A significant snowfall will continue to impact the Great Lakes region into tomorrow. The precipitation from that system will spread eastward, with a moderate to significant snowfall likely across upstate New York and central and northern New England. Detroit will likely see its first 10" or above snowfall since February 15-16, 2021 when 10.4" accumulated. In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, mild but wet conditions will prevail tomorrow. Colder air will begin to press southward, producing a changeover to freezing rain, sleet, and some snow. Northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are at the greatest risk of seeing significant icing. A cold weekend will follow. There remain hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +13.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.548. On January 31 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.477 (RMM). The January 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.552 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: Snowman19 is really a troll. Giving out weenies to every poster who are forecasting cold . And Rjay also likes to give out weenies 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 33 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A significant snowfall will continue to impact the Great Lakes region into tomorrow. The precipitation from that system will spread eastward, with a moderate to significant snowfall likely across upstate New York and central and northern New England. Detroit will likely see its first 10" or above snowfall since February 15-16, 2021 when 10.4" accumulated. In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, mild but wet conditions will prevail tomorrow. Colder air will begin to press southward, producing a changeover to freezing rain, sleet, and some snow. Northern New Jersey, southeastern New York, Connecticut, and Rhode Island are at the greatest risk of seeing significant icing. A cold weekend will follow. There remain hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +13.26 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.548. On January 31 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 0.477 (RMM). The January 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.552 (RMM). I don't see hints yet of warmer weather. It all comes down to the MJO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 This fog is extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Seems like every time there's a sniff of a threat it goes to shit. Lousy winter locally. Potential snow threats are always out on the distant horizon. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: I don't see hints yet of warmer weather. It all comes down to the MJO. It’s currently in a low amplitude, so its impact is less than would otherwise be the case. One sees ridging starting to develop in the East on the latest EPS after mid-month. The EPS weeklies are even more aggressive. There’s also a temporary stretch of warmer readings during the second week of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 I'd be willing to bet we see a good snow event in the Feb 10-20 period. Nice ridge amplification out west and it'll be ahead of another pattern shift. Good snow period climo wise as well. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 A rapid melt is occuring with this snow eating fog. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 you can hear the snow melting lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 59 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: It’s currently in a low amplitude, so its impact is less than would otherwise be the case. One sees ridging starting to develop in the East on the latest EPS after mid-month. The EPS weeklies are even more aggressive. There’s also a temporary stretch of warmer readings during the second week of the month. Phase 3 is cold for February Unless it goes into 4 which now the models are taking it back into the COD, this month shouldn't be warm but we shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Phase 3 is cold for February Unless it goes into 4 which now the models are taking it back into the COD, this month shouldn't be warm but we shall see. Those aren't perfectly correlated. There are no guarantees, only probabilities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 22 minutes ago, Rjay said: A rapid melt is occuring with this snow eating fog. Fog eats snow like a hungry linebacker after practice. I have seen fog legitimately wipe out snowpack of over a foot inside of 3 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 25 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Phase 3 is cold for February Unless it goes into 4 which now the models are taking it back into the COD, this month shouldn't be warm but we shall see. It will be interesting to see how things actually unfold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: It will be interesting to see how things actually unfold. Pretty clear trends on the new ensemble guidance tonight that a mild pattern starts to set in during mid-month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 9 hours ago, uncle W said: February's deepest snow depth at Newark NJ since 1946...last year had 13 days with at least 10" on the ground...most on this list... date................inches....total days 10"... 2/04/1961..........26"............7 2/18/2003..........23"............6 2/12/2006..........20"............3 2/12/1983...........19"............4 2/07/1978...........19"............7 2/19/1979...........19"............3 2/14/2014...........18"..........10 2/11/1994...........18"............9 2/01/2021..........17"...........13 2/01/2011..........15"............6 2/07/1967..........15"............5 2/10/1969..........14"............4 2/10/2010..........13"............4 2/16/1958..........13"............2 2/04/1948..........11"............6 2/21/1947..........11"............2 2/09/2013..........10"............1 February 2015 isn't on this list? That's a surprise-- it was frigid and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: I'd be willing to bet we see a good snow event in the Feb 10-20 period. Nice ridge amplification out west and it'll be ahead of another pattern shift. Good snow period climo wise as well. Well if there is a pattern change in the second half that would be the logical time to see another big snow storm and it's highly favored climate wise too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 hours ago, Rjay said: A rapid melt is occuring with this snow eating fog. good, it looks dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 5 hours ago, USCG RS said: Fog eats snow like a hungry linebacker after practice. I have seen fog legitimately wipe out snowpack of over a foot inside of 3 hours. what if someone puts tarp over the snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 42 with Dense fog. Huge amount of snow melt overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 and the rain begins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be cloudy with periods of rain. It will also be mild. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 48° Newark: 47° Philadelphia: 51° As colder air arrives late tonight, rain could change to freezing rain, sleet, and perhaps a little snow. A cold weekend lies ahead. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.1°; 15-Year: 40.3° Newark: 30-Year: 40.7°; 15-Year: 41.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.0°; 15-Year: 42.0° 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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