February 2022

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

What do you make of the GEFS moving to a more suppressed SE ridge on the LR?

I feel like the timeframe you are showing above is more about a storm tracking further to the west than an actual SE ridge flex.

Big overrunning pattern for March. We have to hope the TPV helps us out because the later in March we get the odds are not in our favor.

[EastonSN+]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

You can see the models correcting to a deeper Western Trough with the strong MJO over the Maritime Continent.

 

 

I hope but I just think we are getting more of the same as December.

Brief warmups followed by cold shots. The warmups tarnished by precipitation.

The negative NAO actually helped keep the cold out west, however now when a cold front comes through there is nothing to stop the cold in Canada.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hope but I just think we are getting more of the same as December.

Brief warmups followed by cold shots. The warmups tarnished by precipitation.

The negative NAO actually helped keep the cold out west, however now when a cold front comes through there is nothing to stop the cold in Canada.

January was the big winter month this year. December had extended record warmth and very little snow. February featured intermittent record warmth with weaker cool downs in between.

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The 0z EPS was stronger with SE Ridge from 240 to 360 hrs than the GEFS.

 

 

 

The models are getting more aggressive with the SE ridge and western trough/-PNA as we move closer in time thanks to the MJO event Dr. Ventrice spoke of. Also still a very strong SPV, ++NAO/++AO to boot 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models are getting more aggressive with the SE ridge and western trough/-PNA as we move closer in time thanks to the MJO event Dr. Ventrice spoke of. Also still a very strong SPV, ++NAO/++AO to boot 

The AO is trending down 

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The AO is trending down 

GEFS picking up on it. Less -EPO more -AO and it's causing early March to trend colder.

A neutral/negative PNA & negative AO is a good cold/snow signal for March.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

GEFS picking up on it. Less -EPO more -AO and it's causing early March to trend colder.

A neutral/negative PNA & negative AO is a good cold/snow signal for March.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

January was the big winter month this year. December had extended record warmth and very little snow. February featured intermittent record warmth with weaker cool downs in between.

For some reason I do not remember the December warmth (again to me a few days at 50 is not warm).

We shall see with March but I hope we are either very warm and dry or cold and SNOWY. December again would be a train wreck IMO. Give me March 2018 or March 2012.

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

For some reason I do not remember the December warmth (again to me a few days at 50 is not warm).

We shall see with March but I hope we are either very warm and dry or cold and SNOWY. December again would be a train wreck IMO. Give me March 2018 or March 2012.

It was the warmest December on record for the CONUS. All our local stations were top 2 or top 3 warmest. Winter was loaded into January this year. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

ISP tied their all-time February highest temperature of 68°. The 69° at JFK was 2nd warmest for the month. EWR added another 70° in February which ranks as 6th warmest for the month. So all our local stations have recorded repeated monthly top ranking high temperatures in recent years. The 80° at Newark in 2018 was one of the most extreme monthly high temperatures for any time of the year. The flow off the colder ocean that year  kept the highs on Long Island lower. But the westerly flow yesterday allowed the most impressive records to occur on Long a Island.

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2022	68	5
-	1976	68	0
2	1991	67	0
3	2017	65	0
4	2018	64	0
-	2016	64	0
5	2012	63	0
-	2002	63	0
-	1997	63	0
-	1985	63	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1997	71	0
2	2022	69	5
3	2017	68	0
-	1991	68	0
4	2011	67	0
-	2008	67	0
-	1976	67	0
5	2018	65	0
-	1996	65	0
-	1972	65	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	2018	80	0
2	1949	76	0
3	2017	74	0
-	1997	74	0
-	1954	74	0
4	1985	73	0
5	2011	71	0
6	2022	70	5
-	1999	70	0
-	1939	70	0

Only 65 in Feb 2018?  That sucks--  I wonder how that happened when LGA hit 80-- strong southerly wind all day?

 

I dont remember Feb 2017 at all-- what temps did the other airports and NYC hit that day?  Interesting that after both warm ups we had significant March snows.

And wow JFK hit 65 in Feb 1996?  That was a very cold and snowy month-- I don't remember that- I only remember the three week break in January after the big Blizzard when we hit 66 and had severe thunderstorms.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

January was the big winter month this year. December had extended record warmth and very little snow. February featured intermittent record warmth with weaker cool downs in between.

Fact is, as we argue over December or March being real winter months, the only real winter months for us are January and February.  If we don't get at least average snowfall in BOTH, we are usually screwed-- December and March are both toss up months and more likely to underproduce especially in urban areas.  We usually need at least 2 months of average snowfall to have a decent winter and that needs to be January and February.  Bigger snowstorms are more likely in December than March, so it's better to have a snowy December than a snowy March.  We had the snowy December last season and you saw how much better we did.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

I hope but I just think we are getting more of the same as December.

Brief warmups followed by cold shots. The warmups tarnished by precipitation.

The negative NAO actually helped keep the cold out west, however now when a cold front comes through there is nothing to stop the cold in Canada.

I think the chances of 10 inches total snowfall in March is getting less and less.  It would be good to get to near average snowfall in the month...5-6 inches, but I would say even that is doubtful.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it seems like the EPS and GEFS keep alternating positions on this.

I just feel that with the cold on our side of the hemisphere we will have cutters giving us temp spikes followed by cold shots. Does not look to me like a true March 2012 warm period.

December was a great example of a chilly outcome despite an RNA. 

To me a high of 48 degrees is not warm.

December was meh, honestly we would have been far better off with a +NAO in December and save the -NAO to when the Pacific was better, namely January and February.

 

[Allsnow]

Next weekend will probably be real warm 

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Next weekend will probably be real warm 

God I hope so. Nothing worse than 50 degrees. 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

God I hope so. Nothing worse than 50 degrees. 

60s is ideal

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

60s is ideal

That's probably why I do not remember December being that warm. If it was a bunch of 50 degree days to me that's not a torch.

Agreed 60 plus

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's probably why I do not remember December being that warm. If it was a bunch of 50 degree days to me that's not a torch.

Agreed 60 plus

yeah the -NAO "saved" us...but because of the Pacific it was basically snowless for us.  I'd rather have the +NAO then when the Pacific was terrible, than the +NAO in January when the Pacific got better.

[Allsnow]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

God I hope so. Nothing worse than 50 degrees. 

I thought the ensembles did a good job for the first week of March. It was always supposed to be cold and dry. We are to deep into the trough then the epo reloads for second week of March. The first weekend in March imo was always a warm risk with cutter. 

[Volcanic Winter]

Eventually the increasing base warmth will win out. Any good March from here on out should be appreciated for what it is. 
 

I wasn’t tracking winter weather as closely a few years back but March 2018 was following a monster SSW right? 

[EasternLI]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Next weekend will probably be real warm 

Yeah, next weekend is looking nice. Sign me up please.

[Allsnow]

Weeklies flip the Ao/nao after mid month haha 

[tek1972]

Weeklies flip the Ao/nao after mid month haha 

Is that a warm or cold signal?

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk


Ahh the image just loaded
Looks cold :/

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Eventually the increasing base warmth will win out. Any good March from here on out should be appreciated for what it is. 
 

I wasn’t tracking winter weather as closely a few years back but March 2018 was following a monster SSW right? 

2019 was the last big March and was not SSW related. 11.5 here from 2 separate storms.

2018 was SSW related. But the big Marches of 2017 and 2015 we're not SSWE related.

[tek1972]

Not warm

That's why I hate March.
Temps in the 30s to low 40s much of the month with many dreary days. While everyone southwest of us begins to warm up.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[donsutherland1]

Late tonight through tomorrow, interior sections of the Northeast will be in line for accumulating snow. A general 4"-8" with locally higher amounts of up to a foot is likely there.

Despite some GFS runs previously showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Generally 1" or less is likely in New York City and Newark prior to a changeover to sleet and then rain.

Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was -0.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.906.

On February 22 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.501 (RMM). The February 21-adjusted amplitude was 1.617 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 94% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.1° (1.2° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

8 hours ago, tek1972 said:

That's why I hate March.
Temps in the 30s to low 40s much of the month with many dreary days. While everyone southwest of us begins to warm up.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

on the plus side we're a lot better than New England.  I know there isn't a mud season here where I live, it usually goes from snow right to warm weather.

 

[CIK62]

The last 4 days of February are averaging 31degs.(23/40) or -7.

Month to date is  38.0[+2.5].       February should end at  37.0[+1.1].

Winter to date {86 days}  +1.2.      Probably ends at +0.9.

Reached 38 here yesterday.

Today:  33-37, wind e. to w. to n. and breezy, Mix/Rain till 2pm., 22 by tomorrow AM.

T remains Normal to BN through early March?     Next excitement during 3/6---3/12??---60's and snow.

35*(88%RH) here at 6am.{was 33 at 3am}       36* at Noon.       40* at 2pm.      42* at 3pm.      Reached 46* at 4pm and wiped out forecast.        33* at 9pm.

[bluewave]

We have another wacky weather stat for our new post 2010 climate. Unusually low  snowfall at ISP in December and February following 25”+ in January. ISP is currently around 35” for DJF. The other DJF winter periods finished in the 44” to 57” range. 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
2010-2011	14.9	34.4	3.9	53.2
2021-2022	0.3	31.8	3.3	35.4
2014-2015	0.4	30.2	13.4	44.0
1977-1978	0.2	27.7	28.9	56.8
2013-2014	8.1	25.2	24.5	57.8

 

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have another wacky weather stat for our new post 2010 climate. Unusually low  snowfall at ISP in December and February following 25”+ in January. ISP is currently around 35” for DJF. The other DJF winter periods finished in the 44” to 57” range. 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Season
2010-2011	14.9	34.4	3.9	53.2
2021-2022	0.3	31.8	3.3	35.4
2014-2015	0.4	30.2	13.4	44.0
1977-1978	0.2	27.7	28.9	56.8
2013-2014	8.1	25.2	24.5	57.8

 

Boxing Day must've been a severe undermeasurement at ISLIP.  No way they only had 14.9 for the entire month when NYC got 20" just in one storm.  I never trust ISLIP snowfall stats anyway.