Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Sure it could. But it'd be in April/May. Swfe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Looking at 12Z runs might need a thread for Sunday soon. It's close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 59 degrees here. Beautiful out there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 38 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Looking at 12Z runs might need a thread for Sunday soon. It's close. Eps also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 56F. Glorious. Top ten day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: 56F. Glorious. Top ten day of the year. It’s been a short year…wow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: Once you get to 3/15, it takes a completely anomalous, fluke event to get a major snowstorm in the metro area, can a freak major event happen? Yes, but you will really be fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. By the time you get to late March, you have an August sun overhead Major is 6" or more to you correct? 4" happen infrequently but not a complete fluke up to the first 10 days of April. 6"+ events are very rare after 3/20 though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: Bear in mind the LIA is postulated to have ended around 1850. The last “pulse” was aided by the massive eruption of Tambora in 1815 along with a preceding yet unknown very large sulphurous eruption in 1808/9. While the late 1800’s were definitely colder than now (especially around the time of the eruption of Krakatau in 1883), things were beginning to warm up on average and for certain they had anomalously warm temperatures at times, though of course less often than we do now. Depends on how you look at it. I always found some of the years of the 1930’s fascinating as you had extreme record warmth and then horrific cold months apart in the same calendar year. the 1930s were awesome except for that darned Dust Bowl era lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: That’s a more promising event for NYC than the one before it. There are still a lot of possible scenarios. By midweek things may start to become clearer. I am glad you are interested in this, Don! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 hours ago, forkyfork said: raging positive nao/ao. yawn That just means it will be a progressive storm and favor coastal areas. by the way what is causing it to be so positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: Forky man, just get me one more snow event here at the NJ coast and I’m good, I promise. Trying to quit the cold white stuff but it’s very difficult. youve had double digit snowfall events there with a raging pos nao already this year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said: It’s a very fascinating subject I wish more people looked into with interest. It’s actually incredible how many regional and worldwide events were influenced by large scale volcanism, and completely unknowingly until recent times. The easy ones are Thera (the Minoan eruption) and Vesuvius 79AD, but there have been many away from population centers that completely borked the climate for several years and caused massive crop failures leading to famines, disease, and political unrest. The Tierra Blanco Joven eruption around 530’s (Wiki) AD lead to one of the worst climate disasters in history, the massive Samalas / Rinjani eruption in 1257ish AD, the speculative Kuwae eruption in the 1450s, Huaynaputina in 1600, and then of course Laki, Tambora, and Krakatau. There are many more as well, most with slightly lesser effects. Pinatubo was the most recent significant volcanic climate alteration for a couple years in the 90s. It’s the most interesting earth sciences topic I’ve ever studied, personally (along with paleo-geology / tectonics and of course meteorology). Maybe we need to develop technology to start controlling volcanoes so we dont go extinct one day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Sunday has a pretty interesting setup... definitely has some upside potential one of the major features that we often need for a larger system to have a reasonable shot at delivering to the NYC metro and S is the presence of a 50/50 ULL to provide some confluence. we would definitely have that here. the TPV that's responsible for the +NAO is actually delivering significant confluence here, acting as a "fake" block there's also a highly anomalous ridge that forms from the Rockies up into W Canada, which will allow for NS waves to dig and amplify as the SS wave moves across the country. it's not often you see a 2 sigma ridge building poleward like that this is by no means a perfect setup, and it does need some work, but there is definitely heightened potential for a larger event here given the overall pattern 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Winter days reaching 50° or higher have become much more common. This is the 23rd day so far for NYC. Getting over 20 days a winter has become the new normal. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: Sunday has a pretty interesting setup... definitely has some upside potential one of the major features that we often need for a larger system to have a reasonable shot at delivering to the NYC metro and S is the presence of a 50/50 ULL to provide some confluence. we would definitely have that here. the TPV that's responsible for the +NAO is actually delivering significant confluence here, acting as a "fake" block there's also a highly anomalous ridge that forms from the Rockies up into W Canada, which will allow for NS waves to dig and amplify as the SS wave moves across the country. it's not often you see a 2 sigma ridge building poleward like that this is by no means a perfect setup, and it does need some work, but there is definitely heightened potential for a larger event here given the overall pattern I think there was a storm in the early 90s with that setup. Front came south and juiced up to a 7 inch accumulation. Have not seen it since. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: It’s been a short year…wow I should be like you guys talking about a never coming snowstorm when it’s 60 out? No thanks. This will be one of the nicest days of the year…trust me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Major is 6" or more to you correct? 4" happen infrequently but not a complete fluke up to the first 10 days of April. 6"+ events are very rare after 3/20 though Hi 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: the 1930s were awesome except for that darned Dust Bowl era lol Please 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: I am glad you are interested in this, Don! Use 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: That just means it will be a progressive storm and favor coastal areas. by the way what is causing it to be so positive? The 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: youve had double digit snowfall events there with a raging pos nao already this year lol Multi-quote 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Maybe we need to develop technology to start controlling volcanoes so we dont go extinct one day Function 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Only made it to 48 here with the SW wind off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 30 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: I should be like you guys talking about a never coming snowstorm when it’s 60 out? No thanks. This will be one of the nicest days of the year…trust me Tomorrow will be nicer or any day in late April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 30 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Tomorrow will be nicer or any day in late April today was a nicer day then tomorrow will be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Wednesday into the weekend looks like our next chance at approaching a 50° drop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Rjay said: Hi Please Use The Multi-quote Function lol sorry I thought I only made like two posts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Wednesday into the weekend looks like our next 50°+ temperature drop. impressive late rise with the warm front just west of the hudson tomorrow 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Milder weather has returned to the region. The above normal temperatures will persist until Thursday. Wednesday could be exceptionally mild. Late in the week, interior sections of the Northeast could be in line for at least some accumulating snow. Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Instead a light snowfall, possibly in the 1"-2" range with some locally higher amounts is on the table. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was +12.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.172. On February 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.817 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.3° (1.4° above normal). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Milder weather has returned to the region. The above normal temperatures will persist until Thursday. Wednesday could be exceptionally mild. Late in the week, interior sections of the Northeast could be in line for at least some accumulating snow. Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Instead a light snowfall, possibly in the 1"-2" range with some locally higher amounts is on the table. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The closing days of February into the first week of March will be generally colder than normal. March could start with a sharp cold shot. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.70°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was +12.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.172. On February 19 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.584 (RMM). The February 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.817 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.3° (1.4° above normal). Maybe more info on that possible snow event coming for early next week in future updates, Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: impressive late rise with the warm front just west of the hudson tomorrow The +PNA WAR pattern has produced rapid temperature changes with the warm ups being more extreme than the cool downs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 Temp reached 51 here today. Now down to 40 as of 7PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: impressive late rise with the warm front just west of the hudson tomorrow Impressive as it doesn't rise very fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 22, 2022 Share Posted February 22, 2022 52 today out in suffolk. These temperature swings are killing the roads 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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