forkyfork Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, wthrmn654 said: Amazing the probability for warmer then normal February went from 86%, dropped down to 76%. enjoy the records this week 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don looks like that late week storm will be far more rain than snow so how does it look for the Sunday night storm? I've been hearing more about that one lately. Right now, neither storm looks likely to bring much snow to the region. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Going to be a massive squeeze play second week of March in the east. If that epo keeps pushing east will send the tpv south If only we had blocking for this event in Friday . I remember we scored on a SWFE along time ago. Not sure what year it was. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Amazing the probability for warmer then normal February went from 86%, dropped down to 76%. That’s only because of the colder end to the month. At this point, it’s a safe bet that this will wind up a solidly warmer than normal February. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Right now, neither storm looks likely to bring much snow to the region. The Sunday storm should be watched . The PNA is going to rising in that timeframe . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, donsutherland1 said: That’s only because of the colder end to the month. At this point, it’s a safe bet that this will wind up a solidly warmer than normal February. Exactly, crazy stuff non the less! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and noticeably milder. Clouds will begin to increase during the evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 53° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 58° Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and mild with some periods of rain likely. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.4°; 15-Year: 43.5° Newark: 30-Year: 44.3°; 15-Year: 44.5° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.7°; 15-Year: 45.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, forkyfork said: enjoy the records this week Haven't had time to check but I'm guessing there won't be much wind otherwise long Island areas still will be cold unfortunately thanks to that marine influence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 I know there's places but it's escaping my mind right now. What sites show record high/ low temps for each day for say a whole month period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If only we had blocking for this event in Friday . I remember we scored on a SWFE along time ago. Not sure what year it was. Will depend where the epo ridge sets up. To far west it won’t matter how strong it is as systems will cut west. For Sunday Monday it will depend on the tpv diving in. It could kick the system out to sea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: If only we had blocking for this event in Friday . I remember we scored on a SWFE along time ago. Not sure what year it was. I think the larger issue is the preceding air mass. If we had an entrenched deep cold layer in advance we would easily get 3 to 6 before the changeover. In this case the cold barely gets in (and not that far south) before the storm arrives. Still a chance of 1 to 3 LI to 84. However, at this moment in time it could be less. Only time will tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Finally found something but here's Wednesday record highs for a bunch of areas. KLGA: 66-1985 KJFK: 62-1990 Islip: 61-2012 Central Park: 72-1874 (wow) Upton: 50-2017 Newark: 68-1985 Bridgeport: 60-2012 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Looking forward to Wednesday. 45 and sunny here now feels great with very little wind. I'm personally enjoying these more tolerable temperatures. Wouldn't mind a torched March at all, but that doesn't look realistic currently. Probably more back and forth. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 I'm a little surprised at Central parks record for Wednesday! 72 in 1874, what kinda year was that I wonder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Riverhead: 60- 1985 Westhampton: 61-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Will be interesting to see if this wave makes it to phase 7 by the 15th. Might be where we are heading….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Might be where we are heading….. That can be an extremely volatile setup. If the SE ridge is a little east then watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Will be interesting to see if this wave makes it to phase 7 by the 15th. Once you get to 3/15, it takes a completely anomalous, fluke event to get a major snowstorm in the metro area, can a freak major event happen? Yes, but you will really be fighting climo, length of day and sun angle. By the time you get to late March, you have an August sun overhead 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, wthrmn654 said: Finally found something but here's Wednesday record highs for a bunch of areas. KLGA: 66-1985 KJFK: 62-1990 Islip: 61-2012 Central Park: 72-1874 (wow) Upton: 50-2017 Newark: 68-1985 Bridgeport: 60-2012 Bear in mind the LIA is postulated to have ended around 1850. The last “pulse” was aided by the massive eruption of Tambora in 1815 along with a preceding yet unknown very large sulphurous eruption in 1808/9. While the late 1800’s were definitely colder than now (especially around the time of the eruption of Krakatau in 1883), things were beginning to warm up on average and for certain they had anomalously warm temperatures at times, though of course less often than we do now. Depends on how you look at it. I always found some of the years of the 1930’s fascinating as you had extreme record warmth and then horrific cold months apart in the same calendar year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Pna spike 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: The Sunday storm should be watched . The PNA is going to rising in that timeframe . That’s a more promising event for NYC than the one before it. There are still a lot of possible scenarios. By midweek things may start to become clearer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 raging positive nao/ao. yawn 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, forkyfork said: raging positive nao/ao. yawn Seems like you are in spring mode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, forkyfork said: raging positive nao/ao. yawn Forky man, just get me one more snow event here at the NJ coast and I’m good, I promise. Trying to quit the cold white stuff but it’s very difficult. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said: Bear in mind the LIA is postulated to have ended around 1850. The last “pulse” was aided by the massive eruption of Tambora in 1815 along with a preceding yet unknown very large sulphurous eruption in 1808/9. While the late 1800’s were definitely colder than now (especially around the time of the eruption of Krakatau in 1883), things were beginning to warm up on average and for certain they had anomalously warm temperatures at times, though of course less often than we do now. Depends on how you look at it. I always found some of the years of the 1930’s fascinating as you had extreme record warmth and then horrific cold months apart in the same calendar year. Yeah it's crazy looking back at history with how large scale volcano eruptions affected the world for a bit, along with crazy temp swings. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 16 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Yeah it's crazy looking back at history with how large scale volcano eruptions affected the world for a bit, along with crazy temp swings. It’s a very fascinating subject I wish more people looked into with interest. It’s actually incredible how many regional and worldwide events were influenced by large scale volcanism, and completely unknowingly until recent times. The easy ones are Thera (the Minoan eruption) and Vesuvius 79AD, but there have been many away from population centers that completely borked the climate for several years and caused massive crop failures leading to famines, disease, and political unrest. The Tierra Blanco Joven eruption around 530’s (Wiki) AD lead to one of the worst climate disasters in history, the massive Samalas / Rinjani eruption in 1257ish AD, the speculative Kuwae eruption in the 1450s, Huaynaputina in 1600, and then of course Laki, Tambora, and Krakatau. There are many more as well, most with slightly lesser effects. Pinatubo was the most recent significant volcanic climate alteration for a couple years in the 90s. It’s the most interesting earth sciences topic I’ve ever studied, personally (along with paleo-geology / tectonics and of course meteorology). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: raging positive nao/ao. yawn You might like the second week of March if we can get the Pv in the Davis straights 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: You might like the second week of March if we can get the Pv in the Davis straights this pattern or bust 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Just now, forkyfork said: this pattern or bust Haha. Yeah that’s definitely not happening this year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Haha. Yeah that’s definitely not happening this year Sure it could. But it'd be in April/May. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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