Hitman Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: It's unbelievable to me because I spent money getting siding put on my house and new windows with insulation and the wind is still getting in somehow. So I'm running house heat plus space heaters. At least there's no wind getting into my bedroom in spite of the fact that I have windows on three sides in there, so I keep the door closed and then it's okay. The rest of the house is freezing though, I noticed a breeze when I walked through the bathroom and downstairs by the living room and sun room. Great. I’m doing the new windows/siding thing in April. Hoping for better heat retention. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, was just looking at that. Wednesday looking really nice for temps. The nws model blend is a bit toned down. But we overperform on warmth these days. So I suspect the euro is closer to reality. Looking forward to that in a couple days. Looks like I’ll be in shorts and short sleeves again…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Looks like I’ll be in shorts and short sleeves again…. Good and then a sweater after that . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Looks like I’ll be in shorts and short sleeves again…. You must be looking forward to that after those occasions of hypothermia this month.... Hopefully you're fully recovered. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: You must be looking forward to that after those occasions of hypothermia this month.... Hopefully you're fully recovered. Hope he enjoys the warm up this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Currently 20F here after an overnite of 16F. Strongest wind gust here last night was 49MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be sunny but cold. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 36° Newark: 37° Philadelphia: 40° Milder air will return tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.2°; 15-Year: 43.3° Newark: 30-Year: 44.1°; 15-Year: 44.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.4°; 15-Year: 45.2° 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 IF this look holds it's gonna get real active. As of now we are on the cold side. Let's see how it pans out. Sorry I do not have the EPS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: You must be looking forward to that after those occasions of hypothermia this month.... Hopefully you're fully recovered. Good morning E LI. That’s the closest depiction of present life expectations I’ve seen in quite awhile. Stay well, as always …… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Just now, bluewave said: The EPS run a combination of competing influences. The wave break produces a strong -EPO. But the forcing near the Maritime Continent is giving us a -PNA. Thanks. Looks on par with GEFS and GEPS. Both GEFS and GEPS have us on the cold side of the SE ridge. Assuming in the above we are below average temp wise as well? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 We'll prob hit 70F or better Wednesday and then 35F Thursday. More crazy swings 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 This is around the time of that PNA spike. Keeping an eye on this one. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Even the cold days arent that cold anymore. Sun is strong 34F. Beautiful! Spring is in the air 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 20, 2022 Share Posted February 20, 2022 Milder weather will return starting tomorrow, but some cold could return in time for a late week storm. As a result, interior sections of the Northeast could be in line for at least some accumulating snow. Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was +5.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.988. On February 18 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.817 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.793 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.5° (1.6° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 5 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Even the cold days arent that cold anymore. Sun is strong 34F. Beautiful! Spring is in the air Sure it is. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 6 hours ago, the_other_guy said: Even the cold days arent that cold anymore. Sun is strong 34F. Beautiful! Spring is in the air Pushing 70 on Wednesday going to feel great 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 29 here under a clear sky, topped out at 33 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 9 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Milder weather will return starting tomorrow, but some cold could return in time for a late week storm. As a result, interior sections of the Northeast could be in line for at least some accumulating snow. Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was +5.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.988. On February 18 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.817 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.793 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.5° (1.6° above normal). Don looks like that late week storm will be far more rain than snow so how does it look for the Sunday night storm? I've been hearing more about that one lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 13 hours ago, EasternLI said: This is around the time of that PNA spike. Keeping an eye on this one. The media has also started talking about this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 The last 8 days of February are averaging 37degs.(29/45) or Normal. Month to date is 36.8[+1.6]. February should end at 37.0[+1.1]. Reached 40 here yesterday. Today: 50-53, wind sw., few clouds. GFS Magic Carpet Ride is over-----little snow to show for Friday. T corrected too. The winter window is shut on all the models for NYC snow. 33*(70%RH) here at 6am. 42* at Noon. 45* at 2pm. 48* at 3pm. Reached 50* at 4:30-5:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Sloppy Presidents week for the ski resorts. Rain well into New England later tomorrow. Followed by a push of 60s right into Maine on Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 31 here this AM, predicted high of 54 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sloppy Presidents week for the ski resorts. Rain well into New England later tomorrow. Followed by a push of 60s right into Maine on Wednesday. If the h5 is correct skiing will be the best in March 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sloppy Presidents week for the ski resorts. Rain well into New England later tomorrow. Followed by a push of 60s right into Maine on Wednesday. Yup. Going to be awful for them and really ruins the rest of the season for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 57 minutes ago, Allsnow said: If the h5 is correct skiing will be the best in March Here comes the next record breaking WPAC storm that’s going to pump the -EPO +PNA block in early March. But it looks like the forcing moving near the Maritime Continent will allow the -PNA to drop a few days later. Then another amplification of the block will allow the Arctic high to press. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Here we go. GEFS and GEPS with a monster negative EPO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 I do not know if I have ever witnessed a setup like what is being shown. RNA ++AO and NAO with a monster -EPO keeping the SE ridge well south of us. Is the EPO extending so much that it's causing blocking in the AO domain (bootleg)? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 Will be interesting to see if this wave makes it to phase 7 by the 15th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 51 minutes ago, bluewave said: Here comes the next record breaking WPAC storm that’s going to pump the -EPO +PNA block in early March. But it looks like the forcing moving near the Maritime Continent will allow the -PNA to drop a few days later. Then another amplification of the block will allow the Arctic high to press. Going to be a massive squeeze play second week of March in the east. If that epo keeps pushing east will send the tpv south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 21, 2022 Share Posted February 21, 2022 14 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Milder weather will return starting tomorrow, but some cold could return in time for a late week storm. As a result, interior sections of the Northeast could be in line for at least some accumulating snow. Despite some GFS runs showing 4" or more snow for New York City, the forecast pattern generally argues against such an outcome. During the February 20-29, 1950-2021 period, 4/13 (31%) of 4" or greater snowstorms saw a positive AO. The evolution of synoptic details will determine the outcome and, at present, most of the guidance argues against a moderate snowfall in and around New York City. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warm pattern will likely begin to break down during the closing days of February. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was +5.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.988. On February 18 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.817 (RMM). The February 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.793 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.5° (1.6° above normal). Amazing the probability for warmer then normal February went from 86%, dropped down to 76%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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