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February 2022


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Maybe a summer preview for the East.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
0730 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2022

...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES SET FOR 
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT JACKSONVILLE FL YESTERDAY...

THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE REACHED 72 DEGREES AT JACKSONVILLE ON 
FRIDAY FEBRUARY 18TH. THIS BREAKS THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST FEBRUARY DEW 
POINT TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 71 DEGREES SET ON 02-24-2019. DEW POINT 
TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1948 AT JACKSONVILLE.

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe a summer preview for the East.

 

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
0730 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2022

...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES SET FOR 
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT JACKSONVILLE FL YESTERDAY...

THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE REACHED 72 DEGREES AT JACKSONVILLE ON 
FRIDAY FEBRUARY 18TH. THIS BREAKS THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST FEBRUARY DEW 
POINT TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 71 DEGREES SET ON 02-24-2019. DEW POINT 
TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1948 AT JACKSONVILLE.

 

Hazy hot and humid is my favorite weather!

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That was fun today.  Facing north at a red light I could see the snow come at me like a wall -  was looking off in the distance about '10 o'clock' and watched the falling/blowing snow move in toward me across an open space rapidly from NW to SE, with blue skies off to the east.  The low clouds ahead of it looked just like a big T storm might.

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In the wake of today's snow showers and snow squall, tomorrow will be blustery and cold. Milder weather will return early next week, but some cold could return in time for a late week storm.

Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The probability that the warm pattern could begin to break down during the closing days of February has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was -0.67 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.336.

On February 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.796 (RMM). The February 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.707 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.8° above normal).

 

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56 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Not sure if any one is paying attention however with the passage of the arctic front there are some very strong winds occurring along the barrier beaches.  I am finding multiple reports of wind gusts between 50 and 60 mph both on WU and the Davis network along Fire Island and Gilgo Beach currently.

It's not that hard to pay attention when the winds are so strong they're coming inside lol

 

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1 hour ago, Juliancolton said:

Yeah, can feel the draft throughout my house. Wind is a bummer. 

It's unbelievable to me because I spent money getting siding put on my house and new windows with insulation and the wind is still getting in somehow.  So I'm running house heat plus space heaters.  At least there's no wind getting into my bedroom in spite of the fact that I have windows on three sides in there, so I keep the door closed and then it's okay.  The rest of the house is freezing though, I noticed a breeze when I walked through the bathroom and downstairs by the living room and sun room.

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The wind will be over for now before you know it and it will be time to start focusing in on the potential winter storm at the end of this work week. Almost all of the models have trended towards a more southern track with a secondary coastal low becoming the primary and locking in the cold air. First the mild temperatures Monday Tuesday and Wednesday.

WX/PT

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18F

 

It really is a shame these 2 cutters have ruined this important ski week

They had a brutal Christmas week, then they had a spectacular six weeks for snow making. Most ski areas turn off their guns in mid February and ride it out with their base.

Unfortunately, that will not work this year. I know Belleayre turned on their guns yesterday to save this weekend and it looks like they will need to do it again on Thursday to save next weekend.

More importantly than us getting snow, I really hope the Catskills get something…Or they are going for a very early end to their ski season

 

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 32degs.(25/39) or -5.

Month to date is  37.2(+2.2).        Should be  36.6[Normal] by the 28th.

Reached 40 here yesterday.

Today: 35-37 then steady till tomorrow AM, wind w., m. clear.

GFS read my post from last evening and took some more PCB---so now its 15" and it drops to a +1! ***     Time for De-Tox.       EURO/CMC have nothing but---like the 28th instead for a bit of white.

1645336800-a9FHYjEzCAA.png

22*(46%RH) here at 6am.      25* at 9am.     27* at 10am.       31* at Noon.           Reached 40* at 4pm.

***The OP is 300m lower on the 500mb Heights than the NAEFS, say 5300 vs. 5000.     The NBM T is in the low 20's.

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13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Temperatures quickly rebound next several days. This warm up will have more WSW flow than the record warmth last week. So Long Island could approach record high temperatures this time. Euro has temperatures well into the 60s even for Long Island. 
 

D598B7A1-B6D5-4AB6-871A-B5E79D59F630.thumb.png.a7d3aab8156883da9c719194e38646e3.png

Yeah, was just looking at that. Wednesday looking really nice for temps. The nws model blend is a bit toned down. But we overperform on warmth these days. So I suspect the euro is closer to reality. Looking forward to that in a couple days.

blend_t2m_hi_newyork_4.thumb.png.1c6404b9414336744c6e7c400de2f986.png

 

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