Allsnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's why the Euro MJO is correct here No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS has really been leading the way this winter on these big North Pacific blocking intervals. It spotted the late December shift going into January and then the GEFS eventually caught on . The GEFS is correcting toward the stronger EPS idea in recent runs. EPS GEFS has been struggling New run more like the Euro Older run too weak The look on the EPS definitely caught my eye this morning. These sorts of things have often come with the legitimate threats this year. So maybe we can cook up something around that time. Could be interesting. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Morning thoughts… Bright sunshine will give way to afternoon clouds in parts of the region. Snow showers and a heavier snow squall are possible. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 30 and lower 40s in most of the region ahead of the arrival of the colder air. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 42° Newark: 43° Philadelphia: 47° Tomorrow fair and cold. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.0° Newark: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 45.2°; 15-Year: 45.0° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 21 minutes ago, MJO812 said: That's why the Euro MJO is correct here There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, bluewave said: There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest Apologies if I am being obtuse, however could the MJO be showing an El nino response? Seems like the past few years we have been saying El nino years have been acting like la Nina and vice versa. I know may not sound logical, however what does an El nino phase 3 look like? Just a hobbyist, but if we are getting minimal at best Arctic influence and mitigated MJO influence, what other drivers are out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The low north of Japan imo is what’s influencing the pattern. It’s definitely not the mjo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 56 minutes ago, bluewave said: There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest Yeah, I think this time the MJO is taking a backseat too. That's a little odd to me given the QBO, but that's a different story. The upcoming proged pattern for instance, I think that's more about the wave break event. Maybe the strat is having some say too? Not sure. There's a little disturbance about to occur up there. Like you pointed out, it's not always all about the MJO. Other factors always need to be kept in mind as well. Sometimes those factors dominate. It all works together. That's a very important point there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, I think this time the MJO is taking a backseat too. That's a little odd to me given the QBO, but that's a different story. The upcoming proged pattern for instance, I think that's more about the wave break event. Maybe the strat is having some say too? Not sure. There's a little disturbance about to occur up there. Like you pointed out, it's not always all about the MJO. Other factors always need to be kept in mind as well. Sometimes those factors dominate. It all works together. That's a very important point there. Exactly. The waves breaking and jet retraction 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, I think this time the MJO is taking a backseat too. That's a little odd to me given the QBO, but that's a different story. The upcoming proged pattern for instance, I think that's more about the wave break event. Maybe the strat is having some say too? Not sure. There's a little disturbance about to occur up there. Like you pointed out, it's not always all about the MJO. Other factors always need to be kept in mind as well. Sometimes those factors dominate. It all works together. That's a very important point there. Yeah, this wave break is leading to the -EPO +PNA block that the models are advertising. We saw something similar in early December with record WPAC low and typhoon a few days later. That locked in the record Aleutian Ridge -PNA pattern for all of December. So these wave breaks are key players in our weather patterns. It would be great if we had an artificial intelligence weather model which could identify these wave breaks months in advance. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The low north of Japan imo is what’s influencing the pattern. It’s definitely not the mjo This is certainly true 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, this wave break is leading to the -EPO +PNA block that the models are advertising. We saw something similar in early December with record WPAC low and typhoon a few days later. That locked in the record Aleutian Ridge -PNA pattern for all of December. So these wave breaks are key players in our weather patterns. It would be great if we had an artificial intelligence weather model which could identify these wave breaks months in advance. Yeah, that low north of Japan will be further west to help pump the epo block 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Reached 58F for a high (shortly after midnite) yesterday, prior to FROPA. Temp bottomed out at 19F last nite, currently 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The GEFS I think continues to be too ridgy in the SE past D10...that probably hurts us somewhat as far as storm chances as the EPS pattern is more cold dry. Its sort of unusual in shorter wavelength pattern to see a bootleg SER try to flex like that with an EPO ridge and the PV basically in E Canada so the EPS makes more sense to me given it'll be March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 WRT today’s snow showers/squalls there is only some light snow showers reaching the ground along I84 in northeastern PA with the first round. The activity seen on radar in the first band in central PA is mostly not reaching the ground in places to the south and west of the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, Tatamy said: WRT today’s snow showers/squalls there is only some light snow showers reaching the ground along I84 in northeastern PA with the first round. The activity seen on radar in the first band in central PA is mostly not reaching the ground in places to the south and west of the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area at this time. Yeah, it’s the 2nd squall behind that one producing the brief blizzard conditions. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 26F w/ Lgt snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 HRRR swings that squall line through later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 It’s pretty cool to see the HRRR generate some SBCAPE as the squall comes through this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Nice looking line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 30 with steady light/moderate snow, dusting. A preview to squall line this afternoon. Looking forward to the 15 minutes of mayhem. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Light snow and wind here. If that squall line holds together, that could be a real doozy on the roads later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 29° with heavy snow 1/4 mile visibility. Everything white instantly. Roadways covered as well. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 34 degrees in Sloatsburg mod to occasional heavy snow in this squall at times. Gusty winds. Nothing sticking to any roads. Daylight and sun angle doing its trick 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 28 with continuing light snow. Got a solid coating everywhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Wantage NJ first band 10A-1145A 0.1" new. Untreated roads wet with a slight covering during the snow on the shoulder but at 28F now the roads are wet as is driveway. Pavers and wood surfaces/grass/rooofs etc covered slightly. snow quit til the squalls arrive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Plows are out. Just measured an inch on the driveway. Amazing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Light snow falling here. Temp 37 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said: Plows are out. Just measured an inch on the driveway. Amazing. It looks like you will end up with more snow from this morning’s activity vs this afternoon. The much advertised snow squall is continuing to the east and is moving across the I81 corridor in PA. The history of this feature is that it drops 0.2 to 0.4” in short order as shown on the HRRR. I just watched it pass one of the webcams along I80 just NW of Hazleton. Visibility drops quickly from 1/2 mile to about 1/16 mile and then back to 1/2 mile within just a few minutes. This is a quick hitter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 You can go to 511pa.com and go to the webcams in the Scranton area. Select I81 for the cameras. A lot of white outs on these cameras right now out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SI Mailman Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 mood flakes here on Staten Island 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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