HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Can we start a thread for next Friday to bifurcate discussions of wind, march in general versus a potential winter storm? Might be early to open a storm thread although agree it would separate topics more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Agree love these airmass clash storms although love them most when on the right side of the gradient. This. The worst is just barely on the wrong side of the gradient. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 38 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This far out - 1 week - there are still a wide range of possibilities for next Fridays and beyond potential storm(s) - but there is a good chance of some frozen precip IMO... Signal is there. Details await. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, White Gorilla said: Signal is there. Details await. I believe there will definitely be a storm but not clear yet if and how it will impact our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 thread starter 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Doorman said: because we track...and take the smack the takeaway....look at how far south the snow line progresses! Yea, let’s use the most inaccurate snowmap available that counts sleet as snow…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Yea, let’s use the most inaccurate snowmap available that counts sleet as snow…. Excuse me 19...does your mother still make your bed???? 2 2 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 12Z Euro delivers especially north of the city but came a good bit south with accumulating snow compared to 0Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 12z Euro cuts the storm way to the west, so it's much warmer than GFS and GGEM. Obviously a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Just now, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro cuts the storm way to the west, so it's much warmer than GFS and GGEM. Obviously a long way to go. It does cut but still somehow dumps 6+ snow about 30 miles north of the city on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 12Z Euro delivers especially north of the city but came a good bit south with accumulating snow compared to 0Z. Yeah not nearly as good as GFS, but it's an improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: 12z Euro cuts the storm way to the west, so it's much warmer than GFS and GGEM. Obviously a long way to go. It's more amped as is it's bias but does develop a secondary and still has some accumulating snow for most, more north obviously. It's definitely something to track. 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It does cut but still somehow dumps 6+ snow about 30 miles north of the city on north. Yes, because of an Artic high and it does develop a secondary that would help with cold air. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Regarding next Friday, I feel a compromise between the two camps this far out tends to have worked. One group seems to be overamped while the other is too progressive/suppressed. Yes, the GFS is generally late to the party to recognize it needs to bridge the gap but at 7 days no model has been consistently spot on this season. Other seasons one model might lock in at 7 days, not this one though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 51 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Can we start a thread for next Friday to bifurcate discussions of wind, march in general versus a potential winter storm? Sure - go ahead and start one for us ......... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 The Euro is actually a good si 18 minutes ago, romba said: Regarding next Friday, I feel a compromise between the two camps this far out tends to have worked. One group seems to be overamped while the other is too progressive/suppressed. Yes, the GFS is generally late to the party to recognize it needs to bridge the gap but at 7 days no model has been consistently spot on this season. Other seasons one model might lock in at 7 days, not this one though. Even the further south models right now are not surpressed for our region which is why the threat of a miss SE seems pretty low right now. Of course still a long way to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 MOVE NEXT FRIDAY’S POTENTIAL TO THE OTHER THREAD K THX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 34 and breezy. Snow showers and a snow squall possible tomorrow. Hrrr showing an impressive squall line tomorrow afternoon. Wind advisory also up for tomorrow by me for 15-30, gusts to 50. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Another big temperature swing coming up. Colder weekend before more 60°+ potential next week. February battle between the +PNA and WAR. +PNA WAR pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 39 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: 34 and breezy. Snow showers and a snow squall possible tomorrow. Hrrr showing an impressive squall line tomorrow afternoon. Wind advisory also up for tomorrow by me for 15-30, gusts to 50. Heavy rain squall one day, heavy snow squall the next. Gotta love it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: Another big temperature swing coming up. Colder weekend before more 60°+ potential next week. February battle between the +PNA and WAR. +PNA WAR pattern and then back to colder and possibly snowier pattern by next weekend Chris? Looks like record cold is diving into the middle of the country for the start of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Heavy rain squall one day, heavy snow squall the next. Gotta love it. Hell this up down weather better kill all the dam bugs we all dislike as humans! 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 A cool weekend lies ahead before much milder air returns next week for a time. Tomorrow will start with sunshine. However, the atmosphere will be highly unstable. As a result snow showers or a possible squall line could develop during the afternoon. The potential exists for parts of the region to pick up a quick coating of snow with some locally higher amounts. Sunday will be blustery and cold. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The probability that the warm pattern could begin to break down during the closing days of February has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was 0.00 today. The last time the SOI had a value of 0.00 was February 4, 2016. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.970. On February 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.708 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.387 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: A cool weekend lies ahead before much milder air returns next week for a time. Tomorrow will start with sunshine. However, the atmosphere will be highly unstable. As a result snow showers or a possible squall line could develop during the afternoon. The potential exists for parts of the region to pick up a quick coating of snow with some locally higher amounts. Sunday will be blustery and cold. Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The probability that the warm pattern could begin to break down during the closing days of February has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was 0.00 today. The last time the SOI had a value of 0.00 was February 4, 2016. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.970. On February 16 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.708 (RMM). The February 15-adjusted amplitude was 1.387 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal). Don with the SOI being 0.00 for the first time since 2016 do you think we'll transition to an el nino for next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 Tomorrow should be an interesting day with squalls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don with the SOI being 0.00 for the first time since 2016 do you think we'll transition to an el nino for next winter? There’s no way to tell at this point in the season. After the spring, there’s more skill with the ENSO forecasts. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 NYC is +2.7 so far for February. Each cool down is followed by a more impressive warm up. So the coming week will be a continuation following the cool down this weekend. Looks like the month will end on a cold note as a major -EPO +PNA block sets up. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2022-02-01 -4.2 2022-02-02 5.7 2022-02-03 13.1 2022-02-04 7.5 2022-02-05 -11.2 2022-02-06 -10.8 2022-02-07 -0.9 2022-02-08 3.9 2022-02-09 2.7 2022-02-10 10.6 2022-02-11 12.4 2022-02-12 15.2 2022-02-13 -1.9 2022-02-14 -15.1 2022-02-15 -12.8 2022-02-16 2.5 2022-02-17 22.3 2022-02-18 8.6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 37degs. (29/44) or just Normal. Month to date is 37.6[+2.7]. Should be 37.4[+1.9] by the 27th. Reached 59 yesterday(midnight). Today: 38-41, clear skies then cloudy, wind w. to nw., 20 by tomorrow AM. GFS now turning 5" of precip. into 20" of snow during next 16 days. Good Luck with that for coastal areas. 30*(55%RH) here at 6am, little change since midnight. 38* by Noon. 39* at 1pm.---then brief fallback to 37* at 1:30pm and then up to 42* at 3pm. Snow Squall here 3:10pm-3:35pm and T down from 42 >>> 34. 26* at 9pm. 25* at 10pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 On the ensembles. Right around the beginning of March, another one of those +PNA spikes is coming into focus. That'll be something to keep an eye on again by default. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, EasternLI said: On the ensembles. Right around the beginning of March, another one of those +PNA spikes is coming into focus. That'll be something to keep an eye on again by default. The EPS has really been leading the way this winter on these big North Pacific blocking intervals. It spotted the late December shift going into January and then the GEFS eventually caught on . The GEFS is correcting toward the stronger EPS idea in recent runs. EPS GEFS has been struggling New run more like the Euro Older run too weak 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2022 Share Posted February 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS has really been leading the way this winter on these big North Pacific blocking intervals. It spotted the late December shift going into January and then the GEFS eventually caught on . The GEFS is correcting toward the stronger EPS idea in recent runs. EPS GEFS has been struggling New run more like the Euro Older run too weak That's why the Euro MJO is correct here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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