February 2022

[HeadInTheClouds]

 38 with NW winds 15G25. Had a gust to 40 with frontal passage and only picked up .30 inch of rain. Basically a non event up here. 

[guinness77]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We have had the tree removal crews here numerous times in recent years. Isaias was the recent worst for tree damage. The first big event in 2010 was the March windstorm. This was followed up by the NYC macroburst and tornado in September 2010. Then it was  Irene in August 2011 followed by the record October heavy wet snowstorm that damaged so many trees around the region. Quickly followed by Sandy in 2012 with both wind and saltwater damage to trees. Several events after this as we have lost  track of all these high wind warning and severe thunderstorm events. There was also a notable severe thunderstorm complex with 80+ winds in June a few summers ago that really clobbered the North Shore. Then we had the recent out of season tornadoes and severe in the fall. So many homeowners are going to small ornamental varieties of trees that won’t do damage to their house or no trees at all.

It’s nuts, isn’t it? I’ve always had an interest in the weather. A fascination with what Mother Nature can do and, even, the wrath of what she’s capable of. Even when I was really young. 
 

Saying that, I can never remember these numerous and constant wind events, even into my 20s. Yeah, yeah, we’d get the occasional tropical system, the occasional Nor’easter, the typical Summer-time severe thunderstorms…but I can never remember getting constantly battered by wind events every month like we have for the past 10-15 years (that seem to get more severe as time goes by)…like you pointed out. 
 

I know a lot of you like seeing weather do what it can do, and I’m certainly guilty of it too. But…this direction our area is going in is, frankly, a scary one, and, I fear, only going to get worse. Our ocean temperatures go up a degree every summer. The 60mph gusts become a little more unsurprising. The tornadoes become a more regular occurrence. Etc etc. 

 

The fact anyone can argue with science just, simply, blows my mind. It’s frightening actually how people can deny the undeniable. 

[MJO812]

45 and windy out

 

Temps are falling like a rock

[cleetussnow]

Yeah Doorman good maps there!  I was wondering what it would take to help us forget December and all the missed chanced in January and the pattern coming up could go a long way toward that.  

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

45 and windy out

 

Temps are falling like a rock

same mid 30s here at HPN

[forkyfork]

with more heatwaves and flooding events the last thing we need is a reduction of the tree canopy

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, guinness77 said:

My kids’ school has a delayed 2-hour opening because of no power with the possibility of it being closed all day depending on whether it comes back on or not. 

Oh that’s unfortunate, my parents house in Lindenhurst is all good from what I heard. I’m 15 years older than my sister and from I’ve heard she didnt any school delays due to any power issues in the neighborhood

[Volcanic Winter]

12 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

with more heatwaves and flooding events the last thing we need is a reduction of the tree canopy

We’re doing a great job of that ourselves without the help of Mother Nature.

We’ve really borked the carbon cycle. 

[lee59]

With all the wind events we have had, Long Island has not had a direct hit from a hurricane in almost 40 years. Another thing that seems to not happen as much are good winter cold fronts that come thru with heavy snow squalls. Maybe tomorrow will be an exception.

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, guinness77 said:

I’ve mentioned it before…I had 6 trees when I bought my house in 2008, I’m down to 1. 4 were brought down by the wind. Off the top of my head, one came down and destroyed everything in my back yard (July of 2010) and another one hit my house, put a hole in my roof, bounced off and destroyed my porch and even smashed the windshield of my car. (August of 2019) 
I’m just so done with this shit.  

My grandmother lost two trees she’s had in the yard since before my grandparents adopted my mom, one in Sandy in the backyard and another in August 2019 in a severe tstorm. They were huge oak trees as well, miraculously both trees missed the house by inches (the second one took out the gutter though)

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Trees have really taken a beating since 2010. Probably the worst tree damage for our area over a 10-12 year period. So many weakened trees have already fallen. Plus many homeowners have done removals of trees that were to close to their house. The professional tree cutting business has been booming.

My parents recently removed th3 elm tree in our yard last fall, kinda unfortunate since I liked that tree. It managed to survive Sandy and Isaias despite losing some large branches, but it was honestly getting way to big for the yard, the roots started burrowing into the foundation of the home, and with all the high wind events that we get now, it probably would have fallen at some point. Interestingly enough when I was visiting during winter break I noticed that a sapling sprouted from the stump so it’s not exactly dead surprisingly

[Intensewind002]

12 minutes ago, lee59 said:

With all the wind events we have had, Long Island has not had a direct hit from a hurricane in almost 40 years. Another thing that seems to not happen as much are good winter cold fronts that come thru with heavy snow squalls. Maybe tomorrow will be an exception.

Do you remember that snow squall we had in February 2019 I think? Was a pure white out for maybe 15 minutes, probably the only true snow squall we’ve had in the past decade

[wthrmn654]

68 mph 61, 66, 65 were some of the highest wins reports Throughout the okx area. 

[guinness77]

30 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

My grandmother lost two trees she’s had in the yard since before my grandparents adopted my mom, one in Sandy in the backyard and another in August 2019 in a severe tstorm. They were huge oak trees as well, miraculously both trees missed the house by inches (the second one took out the gutter though)

I bet the Aug ‘19 storm was the same that took out the tree that hit my house. Micro/down burst about 9 or 10pm right? I think we hit 92mph that night iirc. 

[guinness77]

46 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Oh that’s unfortunate, my parents house in Lindenhurst is all good from what I heard. I’m 15 years older than my sister and from I’ve heard she didnt any school delays due to any power issues in the neighborhood

They ended up keeping them home the whole day. Couldn’t get the power going. Not the entire district, just their school. 

[guinness77]

System pulling away? I just got 2 monster gusts from the west. Both had to be more than 50mph.  

[JustinRP37]

56 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

We’re doing a great job of that ourselves without the help of Mother Nature.

We’ve really borked the carbon cycle. 

Teaching this stuff at the university level I really do not understand how people deny it. We all learn in physics that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction as well as energy can neither be created nor destroyed. However, a large subset of the population wants to believe that these basic laws of physics do not apply to fossil fuel combustions. That billions of internal combustion engines and furnaces have absolutely no effect on our climate or biosphere. It is truly mind-boggling and at times down right depressing. The earth is truly a magical planet and our weather is extremely interesting. 

[Volcanic Winter]

@JustinRP37

The physics of this are clear and undeniable, yet for some people science is an opinion and not the process of finding truth. 
 

More people should study paleo-geology and volcanology. It’s clear the impact CO2 has on the climate system as there have been massive flood basalt eruptions in ancient eras that have caused extreme temperature cascades from CO2 levels in excess of 2000PPM. The planet was nearly sterilized in the Permian Mass Extinction. 
 

Trying not to digress too far from the topic. 
 

Getting pretty hyped for March at this point. Trying to stay realistic but feeling that tingle of excitement that we may have some good chances left this winter along with more of my preferred colder conditions. 

[Doorman]

because we track...and take the smack 

the takeaway....look at how far south the snow line progresses!
 

[Volcanic Winter]

I like the runs that show more snow in central / coastal NJ. 
 

Brb, placing my order with the GFS. 

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, guinness77 said:

I bet the Aug ‘19 storm was the same that took out the tree that hit my house. Micro/down burst about 9 or 10pm right? I think we hit 92mph that night iirc. 

Yeah that’s the one, I wasn’t even paying attention that day since the severe threat was only marginal. I had my headphones on listening to music and suddenly the lights started flickering and the dog ran in my room freaking out. Then I look at side and rain is going sideways with hurricane force wind gusts

[HVSnowLover]

18 minutes ago, Doorman said:

because we track...and take the smack 

the takeaway....look at how far south the snow line progresses!
 

The 12z runs delayed the storm by about 12 hours but are colder so far, strong CAD signature, Im guessing slower allows the cold to dig in more before the storm?  

[HeadInTheClouds]

Both GFS and CMC have a snow to wintry mix to possible rain along coast scenario for late next week. The further north you are the better you should do with this one the way it looks right now. Still a long way to go for any details. Lets see what 12z Euro shows. 

[HVSnowLover]

17 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I like the runs that show more snow in central / coastal NJ. 
 

Brb, placing my order with the GFS. 

Agree def more worried about this one being too warm then surpressed so I like seeing accumulating snow line go further south of the city. 

[guinness77]

27 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Yeah that’s the one, I wasn’t even paying attention that day since the severe threat was only marginal. I had my headphones on listening to music and suddenly the lights started flickering and the dog ran in my room freaking out. Then I look at side and rain is going sideways with hurricane force wind gusts

It’s funny you say that. I don’t even think there was a severe warning even given out that night. I remember watching the Mets game and the storm blew through there and was probably moving west-to-east about 55-60mph. I saw the 2nd gust out my back door, before it started raining and saw, literally, everything in my backyard get picked up. 3rd gust, knocked the tree down. 

[NEG NAO]

30 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Both GFS and CMC have a snow to wintry mix to possible rain along coast scenario for late next week. The further north you are the better you should do with this one the way it looks right now. Still a long way to go for any details. Lets see what 12z Euro shows. 

This far out - 1 week - there are still a wide range of possibilities for next Fridays and beyond potential storm(s) - but there is a good chance of some frozen precip IMO...

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Trees have really taken a beating since 2010. Probably the worst tree damage for our area over a 10-12 year period. So many weakened trees have already fallen. Plus many homeowners have done removals of trees that were to close to their house. The professional tree cutting business has been booming.

Not just on LI.  There are many communities in northern NJ where between storms and other circumstances there has been a tremendous reduction in foliage trees.  As a case in point I will note the community of Wood Ridge, NJ.  This borough is situated right off of Route 17 south of I80.  Before 2010 this was a heavily wooded community with many large old growth trees.  I traveled there a year ago and was shocked by how it had changed.  I would estimate that 90% of those old growth trees are gone.  I was amazed.  And this is just one community in that area.  Even out by me there has been a large amount of old growth trees removed just in the past two years.

[Doorman]

46 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The 12z runs delayed the storm by about 12 hours but are colder so far, strong CAD signature, Im guessing slower allows the cold to dig in more before the storm?  

Timing is everything as usual HV

love these -battle zone - type systems 

always a big upside imho , within the small scale parameters

 

 

[mikem81]

Can we start a thread for next Friday to bifurcate discussions of wind, march in general versus a potential winter storm?

[HVSnowLover]

17 minutes ago, Doorman said:

Timing is everything as usual HV

love these -battle zone - type systems 

always a big upside imho , within the small scale parameters

 

 

Agree love these airmass clash storms although love them most when on the right side of the gradient.