wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Until we see wind reports, would seem the high wind models were over done just a bit. Weren't able to fully mix down unfortunately For some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Until we see wind reports, would seem the high wind models were over done just a bit. Weren't able to fully mix down unfortunately For some areas. They rarely do fully mix down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, Dark Star said: They rarely do fully mix down. Yeah it was nuts what some of the models were suggesting. Like the gfs, it has a known history to go a bit overboard with how high winds might get. None the less, 68 mph out here was very impressive there's over 8,000 Island wide without power, a large chunk on my end of the island. Good job by Upton with wind amounts on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- Low pressure exists through Northern New England today with its strong cold front pushing east of LI/SE CT by 8am. Damaging wind event quickly coming to a close across far eastern LI and far SE CT early this morning, with post-frontal wind advisory gusts of 45-50 mph subsiding to 30 to 35 mph by mid to late morning. Widespread wind advisory gusts were observed across the area early this morning, with high wind gusts across the south shore and east end of LI as well as coastal SE CT. Also a narrow area of high wind gusts developed through Essex/Union (57 kt gust at EWR) and into Brooklyn (58mph at Brooklyn mesonet) with low topped convective line. High pressure then builds towards the region this afternoon, and with the initial burst of strong cold air advection done, gusts should settle into the 30 to 35 mph range for this afternoon. It will be drying out with sunshine, but temperatures will be dropping through the day (50s to lower 60s early AM to 30s late PM) with modified polar airmass advecting in. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Even my parents house where my main station is, it hit 61.1 mph. For some reason it tends to miss the best winds sampling wise but it caught the good winds today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Yeah it was nuts what some of the models were suggesting. Like the gfs, it has a known history to go a bit overboard with how high winds might get. None the less, 68 mph out here was very impressive there's over 8,000 Island wide without power, a large chunk on my end of the island. Good job by Upton with wind amounts on this one. Several models did an excellent job like the SPC HREF. Peak gusts were in the 60-70 mph range here on Long Island. So this one was very well advertised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 29 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: End of GEFS run. Looks a bit different than the EPS from yesterday. Anyone have the end of the EPS run today? Because the GEFS have a robust MJO wave moving into phase 5 around 3/4-3/5. EPS has the MJO in the COD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Several models did an excellent job like the SPC HREF. Peak gusts were in the 60-70 mph range here on Long Island. So this one was very well advertised. Yeah at least they showed the potential versus under doing it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 11 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Yeah it was nuts what some of the models were suggesting. Like the gfs, it has a known history to go a bit overboard with how high winds might get. None the less, 68 mph out here was very impressive there's over 8,000 Island wide without power, a large chunk on my end of the island. Good job by Upton with wind amounts on this one. It seems widespread gusts to 60 doesnt really have much of an impact anymore for the island, now it’s more like widespread 70+ to really get widespread power outages like in isaias or sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Because the GEFS have a robust MJO wave moving into phase 5 around 3/4-3/5. EPS has the MJO in the COD So which one do you think is right ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: It seems widespread gusts to 60 doesnt really have much of an impact anymore for the island, now it’s more like widespread 70+ to really get widespread power outages like in isaias or sandy My kids’ school has a delayed 2-hour opening because of no power with the possibility of it being closed all day depending on whether it comes back on or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 The wind woke me up this morning around 4am. In the process of setting up a Tempest weather station my wife got me for my birthday, but it’s not up and running just yet. If I had to guess we were easily 55mph+ on some of those gusts. Heavy wind blown rain and was sitting around 61 degrees. This was inland Toms River. Driving to work the temperature fell a good amount, 52 now where I am in Union Co. Still blustery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 8 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said: It seems widespread gusts to 60 doesnt really have much of an impact anymore for the island, now it’s more like widespread 70+ to really get widespread power outages like in isaias or sandy It really comes down to whether the trees are fully leafed out or not. Isaias was the last major power outage here with 75-80 mph gusts with fully leafed out trees. Many fewer outages with this event with gusts in the 60s and bare trees. I believe the last cold season event with more widespread outages was March 2010 with the gusts over 75 mph. But those were fewer than Isaias with the trees still bare in March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Pseg outages went up to 8.5k now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Gotta be one of the quickest temp drops ive ever seen. Under 2 hrs im down over 20 degrees. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It really comes down to whether the trees are fully leafed out or not. Isaias was the last major power outage here with 75-80 mph gusts with fully leafed out trees. Many fewer outages with this event with gusts in the 60s and bare trees. I believe the last cold season event with more widespread outages was March 2010 with the gusts over 75 mph. But those were fewer than Isaias with the trees still bare in March. Heavy wet snow and wind takes lines down easy, but haven't had a good one in a while like that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: So which one do you think is right ? I don’t know. We went from torch to cold to this in a week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 37 currently. Projected low of 15 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 22 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Heavy wet snow and wind takes lines down easy, but haven't had a good one in a while like that either. Trees have really taken a beating since 2010. Probably the worst tree damage for our area over a 10-12 year period. So many weakened trees have already fallen. Plus many homeowners have done removals of trees that were to close to their house. The professional tree cutting business has been booming. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Isaias was monstrous by me. Took down two of our trees and crashed a huge, heavy branch into our deck. That was one of if not the worst wind events post Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Trees have really taken a beating since 2010. Probably the worst tree damage for our area over a 10-12 year period. So many weakened trees have already fallen. Plus many homeowners have done removals of trees that were to close to their house. The professional tree cutting business has been booming. I’ve mentioned it before…I had 6 trees when I bought my house in 2008, I’m down to 1. 4 were brought down by the wind. Off the top of my head, one came down and destroyed everything in my back yard (July of 2010) and another one hit my house, put a hole in my roof, bounced off and destroyed my porch and even smashed the windshield of my car. (August of 2019) I’m just so done with this shit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 We had at least 10 trees down just on my block during Isaias. Three of them down on our property alone. Luckily everyone was at work that day, otherwise all of our vehicles would have been destroyed. Damage in my neighborhood was much worse than Sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... LOCATION SPEED TIME/DATE PROVIDER ...CONNECTICUT... ...FAIRFIELD COUNTY... BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 44 MPH 0514 AM 02/18 ASOS FAIRFIELD 43 MPH 0416 AM 02/18 CWOP ...MIDDLESEX COUNTY... CLINTON 45 MPH 0545 AM 02/18 CWOP CHESTER AIRPORT 41 MPH 0535 AM 02/18 AWOS ...NEW HAVEN COUNTY... BETHANY 52 MPH 0431 AM 02/18 CWOP STONY CREEK 51 MPH 0607 AM 02/18 CWOP LIGHTHOUSE POINT 47 MPH 0510 AM 02/18 WXFLOW MERIDEN AIRPORT 43 MPH 0434 AM 02/18 ASOS HAMMONASSET 41 MPH 0613 AM 02/18 WXFLOW ...NEW LONDON COUNTY... GROTON AIRPORT 60 MPH 0556 AM 02/18 ASOS LYME 47 MPH 0545 AM 02/18 CWOP ...NEW JERSEY... ...BERGEN COUNTY... FAIR LAWN 45 MPH 0140 AM 02/18 CWOP TETERBORO AIRPORT 44 MPH 0624 AM 02/18 ASOS ...ESSEX COUNTY... CALDWELL 49 MPH 0605 AM 02/18 ASOS ...UNION COUNTY... NEWARK AIRPORT 66 MPH 0623 AM 02/18 ASOS ...NEW YORK... ...BRONX COUNTY... FORDHAM 42 MPH 0450 AM 02/18 NYSM ...KINGS COUNTY... BROOKLYN COLLEGE 58 MPH 0640 AM 02/18 NYSM ...NASSAU COUNTY... MERRICK 53 MPH 0320 AM 02/18 CWOP WANTAGH 49 MPH 0630 AM 02/18 NYSM 0.8 NW UNIONDALE 47 MPH 0340 AM 02/18 MESOWEST OYSTER BAY 44 MPH 0345 AM 02/18 CWOP ATOC - PLAINVIEW 43 MPH 0455 AM 02/18 RAWS BAYVILLE 42 MPH 0343 AM 02/18 WXFLOW ...NEW YORK COUNTY... MANHATTAN 48 MPH 0430 AM 02/18 CWOP ...ORANGE COUNTY... WARWICK 47 MPH 0500 AM 02/18 NYSM MONTGOMERY AIRPORT 41 MPH 0305 AM 02/18 AWOS STEWART AIRPORT 40 MPH 0605 AM 02/18 AWOS ...QUEENS COUNTY... NYC/JFK AIRPORT 51 MPH 0340 AM 02/18 ASOS BREEZY POINT 41 MPH 0248 AM 02/18 WXFLOW ...RICHMOND COUNTY... COLLEGE OF STATEN ISLAND 48 MPH 0400 AM 02/18 NYSM 2 SE ELIZABETH 45 MPH 0200 AM 02/18 NDBC ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... ORIENT 68 MPH 0400 AM 02/18 CWOP EAST MORICHES CG 66 MPH 0435 AM 02/18 WXFLOW NORTHPORT 62 MPH 0355 AM 02/18 CWOP ORIENT 61 MPH 0409 AM 02/18 CWOP BLUE POINT 57 MPH 0349 AM 02/18 WXFLOW FIRE ISLAND CG 56 MPH 0406 AM 02/18 WXFLOW SOUTHOLD 56 MPH 0440 AM 02/18 NYSM GREAT SOUTH BAY 55 MPH 0610 AM 02/18 WXFLOW BROOKHAVEN 53 MPH 0330 AM 02/18 CWOP STONY BROOK 53 MPH 0216 AM 02/18 CWOP WEST GILGO BEACH 53 MPH 0315 AM 02/18 CWOP FARMINGDALE AIRPORT 52 MPH 0603 AM 02/18 ASOS STONY BROOK 52 MPH 0435 AM 02/18 NYSM ISLIP AIRPORT 51 MPH 0457 AM 02/18 ASOS ORIENT POINT 49 MPH 0505 AM 02/18 CWOP GREAT GULL ISLAND 48 MPH 0611 AM 02/18 WXFLOW WEST ISLIP 47 MPH 0354 AM 02/18 CWOP MONTAUK AIRPORT 46 MPH 0539 AM 02/18 ASOS WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 46 MPH 0509 AM 02/18 ASOS BLUE POINT 45 MPH 0400 AM 02/18 CWOP SHIRLEY AIRPORT 45 MPH 0507 AM 02/18 ASOS MECOX BAY 45 MPH 0610 AM 02/18 WXFLOW N. BABYLON 44 MPH 0510 AM 02/18 CWOP SINAI HARBOR 44 MPH 0606 AM 02/18 WXFLOW BAITING HOLLOW 43 MPH 0500 AM 02/18 CWOP MELVILLE 43 MPH 0509 AM 02/18 CWOP REMSENBURG 43 MPH 0526 AM 02/18 CWOP FISHERS ISLAND AIRPORT 43 MPH 0613 AM 02/18 WXFLOW NAPEAGUE 43 MPH 0609 AM 02/18 WXFLOW FARMINGVILLE 42 MPH 0617 AM 02/18 CWOP STONY BROOK 42 MPH 0204 AM 02/18 CWOP RIDGE 41 MPH 0437 AM 02/18 CWOP ...WESTCHESTER COUNTY... TAPPAN ZEE LIGHT 14 45 MPH 1259 AM 02/18 WXFLOW SOMERS 40 MPH 0155 AM 02/18 NYSM ...CONNECTICUT... ...MARITIME STATIONS... 2 S GROTON 62 MPH 0540 AM 02/18 NDBC USCG ACADEMY 55 MPH 0518 AM 02/18 WXFLOW STONGINGTON OUTER BREAKWATER 49 MPH 0613 AM 02/18 WXFLOW 1 ESE NORWALK 46 MPH 0621 PM 02/17 WXFLOW 2 SSE NEW HAVEN 40 MPH 0430 AM 02/18 NOS-PORTS ...NEW JERSEY... JERSEY CITY 42 MPH 0629 AM 02/18 CWOP ...NEW YORK... ROBBINS REEF, NJ 58 MPH 0342 AM 02/18 NOS-PORTS 26 SSE ROBERT MOSES STATE PA 56 MPH 0550 AM 02/18 NDBC 15 S ATLANTIC BEACH 54 MPH 0250 AM 02/18 NDBC 19 SSE EAST HAMPTON 54 MPH 0520 AM 02/18 NDBC SHINNECOCK HILLS 49 MPH 0428 AM 02/18 CWOP SHINNECOCK 49 MPH 0612 AM 02/18 WXFLOW POINT O WOODS YC 48 MPH 0452 AM 02/18 WXFLOW 3 NNW BAYVILLE 43 MPH 0915 PM 02/17 NDBC FIRE ISLAND CG 40 MPH 0610 AM 02/18 WXFLOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 temperature roller coaster continues and could get worse...I checked some analogs that are similar to this year...1956-57 was slightly cooler but snowfall is equal to that year so far...it ended with 22"...this year could get more...56-57 had days that hit 60 in Jan and Feb and the next day was 30 degrees colder...typical la nina swing's... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Tomorrow should be another interesting day with possible snow squalls and another surge of strong winds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 47 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Gotta be one of the quickest temp drops ive ever seen. Under 2 hrs im down over 20 degrees. Yeah, crazy. I dropped 10 degrees in 30 minutes in the 6 o'clock hour. Down to 38 from a high of 61 at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 28 minutes ago, guinness77 said: I’ve mentioned it before…I had 6 trees when I bought my house in 2008, I’m down to 1. 4 were brought down by the wind. Off the top of my head, one came down and destroyed everything in my back yard (July of 2010) and another one hit my house, put a hole in my roof, bounced off and destroyed my porch and even smashed the windshield of my car. (August of 2019) I’m just so done with this shit. We have had the tree removal crews here numerous times in recent years. Isaias was the recent worst for tree damage. The first big event in 2010 was the March windstorm. This was followed up by the NYC macroburst and tornado in September 2010. Then it was Irene in August 2011 followed by the record October heavy wet snowstorm that damaged so many trees around the region. Quickly followed by Sandy in 2012 with both wind and saltwater damage to trees. Several events after this as we have lost track of all these high wind warning and severe thunderstorm events. There was also a notable severe thunderstorm complex with 80+ winds in June a few summers ago that really clobbered the North Shore. Then we had the recent out of season tornadoes and severe in the fall. So many homeowners are going to small ornamental varieties of trees that won’t do damage to their house or no trees at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 As the storm reports confirm it was weak sauce up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 55 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Tomorrow should be another interesting day with possible snow squalls and another surge of strong winds. The mixing height is about as high as we ever see it around here when the squall comes through on the HRRR tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 Snow Signal Alert can you see the possibilities here???? weenies will be up late this week 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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