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February 2022


cleetussnow
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29 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Sign me up for that over March 2018 in a second. A bunch of solidly moderate snow events that stuck around for weeks as we got pack refresher after pack refresher. Better than the white rain fest of 2018 at least in my area.

Absolutely.... March 2018 was completely overrated for our area March 2015 was my favorite March of the entire decade.  Actually February and March of that year were probably the best that winter gave us, even better than December and January in 2010-11

 

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

if it's heavy yes, but at least on the coast daytime events get harder and harder.  March 2018 had a few events here that were wasted by white rain until we got to late day

Is that how we did so well in April 2003 and April 2018? The snow in both cases got heavy before sunrise and continued most of the day?

I actually love April snows a lot more than March snows..... March snows never seem to measure up to the greats like 1888, 1960, 1993, etc.  But in April you get a 4-6" snowstorm and it's automatically one of the greats and remembered decades afterwards.

 

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3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

It was never going to hit 60 here today.  Wasn't the right set up for that.  Get used to these days in late March/early April.  

It sucks, I still remember how great February 2018 was.  Some of my favorite springs started in April 2002 (90s) and April 2010 (90s), dry and hot, leading into wonderful summers.

 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

It sucks, I still remember how great February 2018 was.  Some of my favorite springs started in April 2002 (90s) and April 2010 (90s), dry and hot, leading into wonderful summers.

 

When its 90 in June in CP and 70's on the Island its amazing. The city is awful on summer days

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3 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

When its 90 in June in CP and 70's on the Island its amazing. The city is awful on summer days

I like when we get pure west winds because it keeps the humidity low.  I wish there was a way to generate a west wind all the time when it's not raining or snowing

Maybe we can do that with that wind farm we're putting up lol

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Under partly sunny skies, the temperature soared to record high levels in parts of the region. Daily records included:

Boston: 61° (tied record set in 1981)
Concord: 59° (old record: 58°, 1880 and 1883)
New York City: 68° (old record: 67°, 1976)
Newark: 69° (old record: 66°, 1976 and 2011)
Philadelphia: 69° (old record: 68°, 1976)
Wilmington, DE: 71° (old record: 70°, 1976)
Worcester: 59° (old record: 56°, 1981)

Tomorrow will start very warm, but the temperature will fall during the day. A cool weekend lies ahead before milder air returns next week.

Overall, things remain on course for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. However, uncertainty concerning a return of colder weather for the closing days of February or the first week of March has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was +1.73 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.222.

On February 15 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.389 (RMM). The February 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.385 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 83% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (2.1° above normal).

 

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29 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I like when we get pure west winds because it keeps the humidity low.  I wish there was a way to generate a west wind all the time when it's not raining or snowing

Maybe we can do that with that wind farm we're putting up lol

Id work on generating more ocean effect snow with SE winds somehow....

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22 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Foggy AND gusty here.  Fairly rare combination I suppose?  I can't recall ever experiencing both simultaneously, not to this degree at least.

pid:202202180026-KOKX-WWUS81-SPSOKX.png

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
726 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

NYZ080-081-178-179-180300-
Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-Southern Queens-
Southern Nassau-
726 PM EST Thu Feb 17 2022

Localized patchy dense fog is developing this evening with a few 
locations already reporting visibility down as low as a quarter 
of a mile. The dense fog is expected to remain localized and not 
wide spread. If driving this evening exercise caution by 
decreasing speed and leaving plenty of space between your vehicle 
and the vehicle in front of you. Also utilize your low beams as 
visibility can drop suddenly.
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35 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

We're in the Money---You Can Bet Your Snow Boots Honey.....................Short Stocks not the GFS:

1646481600-HKNeBkKbB08.png

Of more immediate concern between midnight and tomorrow morning:

1645174800-nyQWzSfWmNM.png

Gfs is going a bit too extreme imo hard to fully mix with such cold waters but it's also not fully impossible.

If it can mix down fully,  could be a 70 somewhere but I fully expect 60-65 in coastal locations especially eastern areas. 

With water temps in the lower
40s, the challenge is how much of the llj will be able to mix
down in a strongly inverted low-level environment.
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