EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I wonder if we had an SSW in 1967 too-- did you look up the records of how amazing February and March 1967 were? Did not but will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: exactly much less resistance this year since it's already cold. Did we also have a SSW in 2015? What was the reason for the big turnaround for the 2014-15 winter? No that winter was an extreme and perfectly place neg EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: U may think I'm nuts but I want some SE riding to bring the moisture. Jan had a long stretch between snow events. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 45 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, it's a great point. I was thinking about this a little. Kind of goes along with the ideas of patterns lingering in recent years. But also, check out the 2 areas of tropical convection there. Compared to the actual (not anomalies) sst. It lines up really well with the warmest water. But the cooler water near Indonesia is playing a role to it appears. That's interesting. Yeah, competing marine heatwaves are becoming the key to understanding these extreme winter patterns. It adds a new level of complexity to seasonal forecasting. So the old La Niña or El Nino based forecasts are becoming less reliable. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: U may think I'm nuts but I want some SE riding to bring the moisture. Jan had a long stretch between snow events. you caught the attention of a big weenie lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 3 hours ago, jm1220 said: So basically take Nina climo for a February and print it out. Got it. it's a climate change forecast I guarantee they will have this kind of forecast every winter going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: Active February ahead until the mjo possibly goes into 4 Look at the sharp changes in the AO, I have a strong feeling we'll be seeing another big wintry event in February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: 4-8 for our area but an area of 12+ around Fire Island lol Lee Goldberg has been talking about this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 hours ago, MJO812 said: a classic coastal? it's showing up on most of the models now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 So a possible snowstorm two days after the ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said: So a possible snowstorm two days after the ice? Gfs has the storm. but its suppressed south. Down by Virginia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 6 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said: I'm trolling them all over Twitter now: it's going to be dead wrong because your own forecast for the next 14 days is well below normal temps in the east....you should quit going with a la nina forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Gfs has the storm. but its suppressed south. Down by Virginia Exactly where I want it this far out. Let it trend lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, Franklin0529 said: Gfs has the storm. but its suppressed south. Down by Virginia right where we want it lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, competing marine heatwaves are becoming the key to understanding these extreme winter patterns. It adds a new level of complexity to seasonal forecasting. So the old La Niña or El Nino based forecasts are becoming less reliable. Absolutely. It's the same thing we observed in December, but now it's a bit different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 Just now, EasternLI said: Absolutely. It's the same thing we observed in December, but now it's a bit different. Yeah, it leads to these dramatic pattern changes over a short period of time like we saw from December to January. Now it looks like the January pattern is repeating in February. So a combination of big weather swings and stuck weather patterns. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Yeah, it leads to these dramatic pattern changes over a short period of time like we saw from December to January. Now it looks like the January pattern is repeating in February. So a combination of big weather swings and stuck weather patterns. so this is like a scaled down version of 2014-15? Interesting, I loved that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 1, 2022 Share Posted February 1, 2022 14 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Absolutely. It's the same thing we observed in December, but now it's a bit different. Good, out with the old and in with the new. I love this facet of climate change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 A significant snowfall will impact the Great Lakes region late tonight through Thursday. The precipitation from that system will spread eastward, with a moderate to significant snowfall likely across upstate New York and central and northern New England. Detroit will likely see its first 10" or above snowfall since February 15-16, 2021 when 10.4" accumulated. In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, tomorrow will see temperatures rise further. Much of the region will likely see the mercury rise into the lower and perhaps middle 40s. Afterward, the storm that will be producing the snowfall from the Great Lakes to northern New England will bring some rain or rain changing to freezing rain, sleet and snow Thursday into Friday. A cold weekend will follow. There remain hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +21.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.124. On January 30 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.533 (RMM). The January 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.565 (RMM). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A significant snowfall will impact the Great Lakes region late tonight through Thursday. The precipitation from that system will spread eastward, with a moderate to significant snowfall likely across upstate New York and central and northern New England. Detroit will likely see its first 10" or above snowfall since February 15-16, 2021 when 10.4" accumulated. In the northern Mid-Atlantic region, tomorrow will see temperatures rise further. Much of the region will likely see the mercury rise into the lower and perhaps middle 40s. Afterward, the storm that will be producing the snowfall from the Great Lakes to northern New England will bring some rain or rain changing to freezing rain, sleet and snow Thursday into Friday. A cold weekend will follow. There remain hints on the long range guidance that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings. Much can still change given the timeframe involved. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 26. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +21.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.124. On January 30 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.533 (RMM). The January 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.565 (RMM). Walt may be right about the pattern change coming after Presidents Day If so we may be in store for another big snow storm between now and then. February is when they are most likely to happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: No that winter was an extreme and perfectly place neg EPO. And huge pos PNA as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 The next 8 days of February are averaging 30degs.(24/35) or -4. Reached 44 here yesterday. Today: 44-47, wind e. to s., cloudy. No real snow showing for the next 10 days. Maybe on SuperBall Sunday! 35*(84%RH) here at 6am. 37* at 8am. 40* at 9am. 42* at 9:30am. 47* at 11am. 48* at 1pm. 44* at 5pm and a foggy, soggy mess---1/4mi. visibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 30F as of 6:30 this AM, after reaching a high of 34F yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly to mostly cloudy and mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower to middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 42° Newark: 41° Philadelphia: 45° A storm will impact the region late tonight through Friday. Cold air will return for the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40.0°; 15-Year: 40.2° Newark: 30-Year: 40.6°; 15-Year: 40.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 41.9° 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I’m going to give you a prediction about this winter. It’s going to be cold, it’s going to be dark, and it’s going to last you for the rest of your lives.. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Good stuff. You can thank the MJO for initiating the process IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Bit colder this morning in inland TR / Manchester than expected. Woke up to 22*. No doubt the snow pack has been doing work, but that’s about to melt rapidly . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 This is what looks to set in. Starting ~day 9 until the foreseeable. There's good ensemble agreement for this now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 9 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said: And huge pos PNA as well. I think the PNA was actually neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: This is what looks to set in. Starting ~day 9 until the foreseeable. There's good ensemble agreement for this now. I know it's only op runs, but they were kind of ugly WRT snowfall chances. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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