February 2022

[brooklynwx99]

we're going to have a lot of chances if this is even in the ballpark

[Allsnow]

Weeklies lock in the pattern through April 

[Intensewind002]

2 hours ago, guinness77 said:

I’m pretty sure we’re getting one a month now. It doesn’t even matter what time of the year it is. 

I wonder if there is a compilation somewhere on the internet of all the events with 60+ gusts in the region over the past few decades, if there is there definitely has to be an upward tick in frequency in the past 10 years

[NJwx85]

63 in Ramsey.

[Brian5671]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Weeklies lock in the pattern through April 

Giddy up!   March 18 style (without the -NAO) 

[EastonSN+]

39 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

with another storm (or 2) most areas could get to above normal seasonal snowfall.   In my area at 24.4 at BDR which is about 4 inches short of seasonal ave.

I am in a local snow hole.

Only 18.5 in Easton.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Giddy up!   March 18 style (without the -NAO) 

March 15 style  KNYC got 18.6" in Mar 15 and the two patterns share a lot of similarities

[NJwx85]

8 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

It’s not like that would be static, it’s a smoothed mean. What he’s saying is there’s potential.  We definitely shouldn’t close the shades on this winter. I’m fact I think areas NW of the city may have there best stretch of winter still to come

Of course Winter isn’t over yet. But March is the same as September. Both are transition months. In like a lion, out like a lamb ect. 
 

We will have our chances. Just think the modeling favors SNJ, E LI and New England more than it does NYC and points North and West.

[Brian5671]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Of course Winter isn’t over yet. But March is the same as September. Both are transition months. In like a lion, out like a lamb ect. 
 

We will have our chances. Just think the modeling favors SNJ, E LI and New England more than it does NYC and points North and West.

without the -AO or -NAO I would agree-systems could be more progressive....

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Snow is gone and it feels beautiful outside currently 

Gotta ignore that wind, the curse of living near the ocean, it's in the low 50s here with super windy conditions

[LibertyBell]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

March 15 style  KNYC got 18.6" in Mar 15 and the two patterns share a lot of similarities

That was a seriously cold March and one of my favorites.  But I have a few issues with this.  One is that we were much colder in that winter overall and coming off a historically cold February and that pattern lingered into March.  I don't think we would get the same results this time around because this winter has not been nearly as cold.  I do think we'll have more snow but I just dont want anyone to think just because we have a similar pattern the outcome will be the same.  I think, for one, it will be milder, simply because it has never been as cold this winter as it was in 2014-15 and antecedent conditions do matter.

 

[LibertyBell]

46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS really goes wild with the -EPO +PNA from late February into early March. 
 

Feb 28- Mar 7

 

Mar 7-14

 

Chris are you seriously on board with a March 2015 part 2?  I thought you'd be hesitant because this winter simply hasn't been all that cold compared to 2014-15 and March had a cold lag left over from the historically cold February?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

New record highs of 68°at NYC and EWR. 

200 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   MOSUNNY   68  45  43 MISG      30.07F
LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY   60  42  51 S17       30.06F
Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   51  44  77 S23G30    30.09F
Newark Liberty PTSUNNY   68  47  46 SW17G32   30.04F

lmao 51 here and windy, was that the high?

 

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That was a seriously cold March and one of my favorites.  But I have a few issues with this.  One is that we were much colder in that winter overall and coming off a historically cold February and that pattern lingered into March.  I don't think we would get the same results this time around because this winter has not been nearly as cold.  I do think we'll have more snow but I just dont want anyone to think just because we have a similar pattern the outcome will be the same.  I think, for one, it will be milder, simply because it has never been as cold this winter as it was in 2014-15 and antecedent conditions do matter.

 

yeah, I'm not expecting KNYC to get almost 20" of snow, but there's always an elevated risk for winter storms when the pattern is that amplified, no matter the antecedent conditions

would be different if Jan and Feb torched, but Jan was cold and Feb will probably finish a bit above normal

it's just a signal that we're probably entering into a pattern that's worked for us, historically

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, I'm not expecting KNYC to get almost 20" of snow, but there's always an elevated risk for winter storms when the pattern is that amplified, no matter the antecedent conditions

would be different if Jan and Feb torched, but Jan was cold and Feb will probably finish a bit above normal

it's just a signal that we're probably entering into a pattern that's worked for us, historically

Thanks,

If we get a couple good overrunning events I think we can surpass 2015 

[brooklynwx99]

also, to make sure that the March 2015 analog isn't overstated, here are NYC's Marches over 10" since 1980:

notice that there are some striking similarities to the pattern that we're likely entering:

the main feature in those Marches is a +PNA/-EPO with the positive anomalies centered over AK, which is what we have here. also, blocking really doesn't play much of a role in determining whether the month will be snowy or not. in fact, there's a +NAO on average

in short, we might be in for it

[LibertyBell]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, I'm not expecting KNYC to get almost 20" of snow, but there's always an elevated risk for winter storms when the pattern is that amplified, no matter the antecedent conditions

would be different if Jan and Feb torched, but Jan was cold and Feb will probably finish a bit above normal

it's just a signal that we're probably entering into a pattern that's worked for us, historically

I agree with this, if I had to guess I would say that we get somewhere between 6" and 10" of snow in March.... would you tend to agree with that?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

also, to make sure that the March 2015 analog isn't overstated, here are NYC's Marches over 10" since 1980:

notice that there are some striking similarities to the pattern that we're likely entering:

the main feature in those Marches is a +PNA/-EPO with the positive anomalies centered over AK, which is what we have here. also, blocking really doesn't play much of a role in determining whether the month will be snowy or not. in fact, there's a +NAO on average

in short, we might be in for it

Oh sounds like you're more in  the 10-15 inch camp for March rather than 6-10 which is what I was guessing.

Is there anyway to see what the average temps and snowfall was for these Marches as well as for the Februaries that preceded them?

Thanks!

 

[Brian5671]

Alot of it will come down to luck of timing-want late afternoon/evening start times of potential events in March.  A 9am start is a waste....

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Alot of it will come down to luck of timing-want late afternoon/evening start times of potential events in March.  A 9am start is a waste....

Not necessarily if it's in the 20s at 9 am. 

[HVSnowLover]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

New record highs of 68°at NYC and EWR. 

200 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   MOSUNNY   68  45  43 MISG      30.07F
LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY   60  42  51 S17       30.06F
Kennedy Intl   PTSUNNY   51  44  77 S23G30    30.09F
Newark Liberty PTSUNNY   68  47  46 SW17G32   30.04F

Thats wild. That looks way more like typical April gradient than a February one. 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Not necessarily if it's in the 20s at 9 am. 

if it's heavy yes, but at least on the coast daytime events get harder and harder.  March 2018 had a few events here that were wasted by white rain until we got to late day

[romba]

18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if it's heavy yes, but at least on the coast daytime events get harder and harder.  March 2018 had a few events here that were wasted by white rain until we got to late day

In the city where I was most of them ended up being a few slushy inches after hours of moderate snow that would be 6+ mid winter. I'm now slightly N and W but I've still learned not to get my hopes up for March storms no matter how much the weenies on here insist it will accumulate with pace...

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Of course Winter isn’t over yet. But March is the same as September. Both are transition months. In like a lion, out like a lamb ect. 
 

We will have our chances. Just think the modeling favors SNJ, E LI and New England more than it does NYC and points North and West.

And that has been the case all winter.

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

And that has been the case all winter.

If NYC gets about another 5 inches they'd be above season average so if the March pattern is similar to the winter NYC should be fine. NW of the city it's been a lousy winter. 

[kat5hurricane]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

March 15 style  KNYC got 18.6" in Mar 15 and the two patterns share a lot of similarities

Sign me up for that over March 2018 in a second. A bunch of solidly moderate snow events that stuck around for weeks as we got pack refresher after pack refresher. Better than the white rain fest of 2018 at least in my area.

[HVSnowLover]

I need to stop looking at the models, they are too exciting for late next week. 

[MJO812]

Gfs is a big hit for next Friday 

[HeadInTheClouds]

Just for shits and giggles: 

 

 

[RedSky]

5 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

Just for shits and giggles: 

 

 

Meh gonna need a better map