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cleetussnow
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26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

NYC had numerous 10”+ snowfall totals with the 3-21-18 snowstorm. The NYC UHI is most pronounced in Queens which had the heaviest 10”+ snowfall totals in that storm. So more about storm track and where the heaviest bands set up. There was also another 10”+ event in NYC and Western Nassau in March 2009. 

Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service New York NY
500 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018...correction

 

..New York County...
   Grammercy Park        10.0  1115 PM  3/21  Law Enforcement    
Queens County...
   Queens Village        14.5   738 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
   Bayside               13.7   124 AM  3/22  Social Media            
   Little Neck           13.2   415 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
   Woodhaven             13.0  1200 AM  3/22  Public                  
   Rego Park             12.0   800 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
   Woodside              12.0   730 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
   Oakland Gardens       10.8   530 AM  3/22  Trained Spotter         
   Cedar Manor           10.2   230 AM  3/22  CoCoRaHS                
   Whitestone            10.0   101 AM  3/22  Social Media       

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
445 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2009


 

QUEENS COUNTY...
   REGO PARK             10.8  1050 AM   3/2   PUBLIC
   ASTORIA               10.5  1200 PM   3/2   PUBLIC
   BROAD CHANNEL         10.0   330 PM   3/2   PUBLIC
   HOWARD BEACH          10.0  1000 AM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER


 

SPOTTER

...NASSAU COUNTY...
   HICKSVILLE            12.5   548 PM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WOODMERE              12.4   200 PM   3/2   PUBLIC
   PLAINVIEW             12.1  1200 PM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WANTAGH               11.8   600 PM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   ROCKVILLE CENTRE      11.5   400 PM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   ROSLYN HARBOR         11.5   100 PM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BALDWIN PARK          11.0   200 PM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BETHPAGE              10.9  1158 AM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   INWOOD                10.9  1200 PM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   LIDO BEACH            10.5   300 PM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   MILL NECK             10.2   245 PM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   SEAFORD               10.1   815 AM   3/2   SKYWARN SPOTTER
   FLORAL PARK           10.0   200 PM   3/2   PUBLIC

Those were marginal though and we need controlled scientific methods for measuring snowfall and the only ones that count for those are NYC, JFK, LGA....as much as we disagree with their measuring techniques, we have to use official NWS reporting sites and those are the only ones.

 

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26 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

TBH, I do know which 3 storms those are, but I forget which is which.  It's not like saying Sandy or Gloria.  It's just dumb marketing.

Yeah but we do need naming of winter storms....it's too confusing when there's more than one big storm in a month and I have to refer to....oh, it was the second big storm in February 2010 (as an example.)  They name all big impact storms in Europe, they need to do the same here.  I say name all big storms or name none, no reason for TCs to get special treatment either.

Base it off of how large the area is covered by winter storm warnings and/or the number of people under them.

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46 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Before 1993 the last 10 inch plus storm in March in NYC was March 3-4 1960 14.5 inches.

There have been 67 storms of 10 inches or more in NYC since records have been kept the last 153 years. Here's the breakdown by month.

No. Pct of total 10 + inch snows
1 1.5% November
13 19.4% December
16 23.9% January
26 38.8% February
9 13.4% March
2 3.0% April
67 100.0% Total

Wow, nice, thanks!  So this shows they are more common in December than March, which is what I expected since we've seen a few big December storms in the 15-20 inch range here but haven't seen a March storm like that in my lifetime.  The 2 in April doesn't include the 9.6" measured at NYC in April 1982 does it?  Funny thing-- EWR measured around 13" in that one lol.  Temperature definitely wasn't a problem.  That was my first ever clear snowstorm memory and to this day my favorite late season snowstorm ever!

I'm shocked the January total is so close to December and so far away from February, I suspect in our new climate we'll see January catch up to February within a few decades.

 

 

 

 

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34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Those were marginal though and we need controlled scientific methods for measuring snowfall and the only ones that count for those are NYC, JFK, LGA....as much as we disagree with their measuring techniques, we have to use official NWS reporting sites and those are the only ones.

 

Airports are great for measurements. But the heaviest bands often fall between them. Same goes for thunderstorms. So we have to rely on local spotter reports from trained observers. 

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6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

TBH, I do know which 3 storms those are, but I forget which is which.  It's not like saying Sandy or Gloria.  It's just dumb marketing.

This is my biggest complaint. A private corporation taking it upon themselves to name storms in the guise of public good just screams greedy corporate marketing.

When someone googles the name of a winter storm where do they end up going to get their information? The weather channel. Not the NWS.

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14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Airports are great for measurements. But the heaviest bands often fall between them. Same goes for thunderstorms. So we have to rely on local spotter reports from trained observers. 

One of those measurements from March 2009 was mine and we definitely did have a foot of snow here but it was on March 1st and since February only has 28 days it sometimes makes me wonder if that should really be counted as a March event.  It was all snow at least.  The other one was not.  One of the big problems with late season events is that as rates lessen, you get a mixture of precip, even if the temps are below freezing.  You need a hard hitting multihour band of 2 inches per hour for like 6 hours to get a big snowstorm here in March and April.  Also, I agree with people who said that the temps need to be in the 20s, we've had that for all of our big late season events....can't be around 32 or even just under.

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Nibor said:

This is my biggest complaint. A private corporation taking it upon themselves to name storms in the guise of public good just screams greedy corportate marketing.

When someone googles the name of a winter storm where do they end up going to get their information? The weather channel. Not the NWS.

the NWS needs to have their own network apparently.

 

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33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

One of those measurements from March 2009 was mine and we definitely did have a foot of snow here but it was on March 1st and since February only has 28 days it sometimes makes me wonder if that should really be counted as a March event.  It was all snow at least.  The other one was not.  One of the big problems with late season events is that as rates lessen, you get a mixture of precip, even if the temps are below freezing.  You need a hard hitting multihour band of 2 inches per hour for like 6 hours to get a big snowstorm here in March and April.  Also, I agree with people who said that the temps need to be in the 20s, we've had that for all of our big late season events....can't be around 32 or even just under.

 

 

 

It’s interesting that March 1-15th has been better for 12”+ snowfall maxes in the OKX zones than the 2nd half of February since 2010. It has also been much better than all the 2 week periods before January 15th. So a snowfall max from mid-January to mid-February and a 2nd peak in early March.

 

Roughly 2 week snowfall periods since 2010 and number of 12"+ snowstorms in OKX zones

Oct 29-Nov 15.....3

Nov 16-Nov 30....0

Dec 1- Dec 15.....0

Dec 16-Dec 31....3

Jan1-Jan 15.......4

Jan16-Jan 31.....6

Feb 1-Feb 15.....7

Feb 16-Feb 28...1

Mar 1- Mar 15....6

Mar 16-Mar 31...1

Apr 1-Apr 16.....0

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Milder air returned to the region. As a result, temperatures rose into the 40s in most of the region and 50s in parts of southeastern Pennsylvania today. Tomorrow will be even warmer with the mercury reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region.

Overall, the stage is now set for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. However, uncertainty concerning a return of colder weather for the closing days of February or the first week of March has increased.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March.

The SOI was -1.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.044.

On February 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.385 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.428 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (2.1° above normal).

 

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I just don't believe 10"+ snowstorms in March in NYC and urban western Long Island are possible anymore because of the extensive urbanization enhancing the effect of sun angle.  6"+ yes, 10"+ no.  I mean I wont discount a fluke once in a 50 year event, but it's not something anyone should reasonably expect.  Eastern Long Island and NW areas are a different story.  The storms mentioned above should've happened in February or earlier.....March is just too late.

I think it depends on track, NYC basically needs perfect track and intensity to pull it off which I guess supports your point if its reliant on an almost perfect setup. 

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