wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: Euro really backed off-looks more run of mill with some gusts into the 40's except a bit higher out east. Upton even saying likely only wind advisory for eastern areas, cold waters negate big winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Rjay said: Nemo- Feb 2013 Juno- Jan 2015 Jonas- Jan 2016 .I'm chuckling here. Not because I don't appreciate the attempt, but because I know I'll mix them up again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 GFS borrowing a turbine. Looks similar to 06Z: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Nemo, Juno, and Jonas sounds like the names of a new boy band. Their number one single, “13 Inches of Love” off the hit album, ‘The Snowman and the Torch’. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, CIK62 said: GFS borrowing a turbine. Looks similar to 06Z: Gfs goes overboard mixing every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Euro really backed off-looks more run of mill with some gusts into the 40's except a bit higher out east. Looks the same with widespread 50 mph and localized 60 mph near the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, bluewave said: NYC had numerous 10”+ snowfall totals with the 3-21-18 snowstorm. The NYC UHI is most pronounced in Queens which had the heaviest 10”+ snowfall totals in that storm. So more about storm track and where the heaviest bands set up. There was also another 10”+ event in NYC and Western Nassau in March 2009. Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 500 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018...correction ..New York County... Grammercy Park 10.0 1115 PM 3/21 Law Enforcement Queens County... Queens Village 14.5 738 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Bayside 13.7 124 AM 3/22 Social Media Little Neck 13.2 415 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Woodhaven 13.0 1200 AM 3/22 Public Rego Park 12.0 800 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Woodside 12.0 730 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Oakland Gardens 10.8 530 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Cedar Manor 10.2 230 AM 3/22 CoCoRaHS Whitestone 10.0 101 AM 3/22 Social Media PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 445 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2009 QUEENS COUNTY... REGO PARK 10.8 1050 AM 3/2 PUBLIC ASTORIA 10.5 1200 PM 3/2 PUBLIC BROAD CHANNEL 10.0 330 PM 3/2 PUBLIC HOWARD BEACH 10.0 1000 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER SPOTTER ...NASSAU COUNTY... HICKSVILLE 12.5 548 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER WOODMERE 12.4 200 PM 3/2 PUBLIC PLAINVIEW 12.1 1200 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER WANTAGH 11.8 600 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER ROCKVILLE CENTRE 11.5 400 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER ROSLYN HARBOR 11.5 100 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER BALDWIN PARK 11.0 200 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER BETHPAGE 10.9 1158 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER INWOOD 10.9 1200 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER LIDO BEACH 10.5 300 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER MILL NECK 10.2 245 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER SEAFORD 10.1 815 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER FLORAL PARK 10.0 200 PM 3/2 PUBLIC Those were marginal though and we need controlled scientific methods for measuring snowfall and the only ones that count for those are NYC, JFK, LGA....as much as we disagree with their measuring techniques, we have to use official NWS reporting sites and those are the only ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: TBH, I do know which 3 storms those are, but I forget which is which. It's not like saying Sandy or Gloria. It's just dumb marketing. Yeah but we do need naming of winter storms....it's too confusing when there's more than one big storm in a month and I have to refer to....oh, it was the second big storm in February 2010 (as an example.) They name all big impact storms in Europe, they need to do the same here. I say name all big storms or name none, no reason for TCs to get special treatment either. Base it off of how large the area is covered by winter storm warnings and/or the number of people under them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 37 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Toby means nothing. Which storm/date are you talking about? March 21 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, Rjay said: Nemo- Feb 2013 Juno- Jan 2015 Jonas- Jan 2016 I have a proposal, name each storm by the local area that got jackpotted. so it's Central Suffolk 2/2013 Eastern Suffolk 1/2015 JFK 1/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said: March 22 2018. okay in my naming scheme that's Western Suffolk 3/2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: .I'm chuckling here. Not because I don't appreciate the attempt, but because I know I'll mix them up again. I regularly mix up 1 and 2....never 3, since that was the GOAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: Looks the same with widespread 50 mph and localized 60 mph near the coast. Upton said wind threat has lessened. But there using nam gfs middle ground apparently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 39 minutes ago, Rjay said: I know Nemo, Juno and Jonas. That's it. I also know Athena because that was the first one named and was our earliest MECS ever (8.5 inches in the first week of November and right after Sandy!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Also the March 2016 storm would have been a blizzard in NYC if the track had stayed further east as initially projected, surface temps were cold and frozen precip had no problem accumulating in the daytime but the low tracking too close to the coast turned into a sleet storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 46 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: Before 1993 the last 10 inch plus storm in March in NYC was March 3-4 1960 14.5 inches. There have been 67 storms of 10 inches or more in NYC since records have been kept the last 153 years. Here's the breakdown by month. No. Pct of total 10 + inch snows 1 1.5% November 13 19.4% December 16 23.9% January 26 38.8% February 9 13.4% March 2 3.0% April 67 100.0% Total Wow, nice, thanks! So this shows they are more common in December than March, which is what I expected since we've seen a few big December storms in the 15-20 inch range here but haven't seen a March storm like that in my lifetime. The 2 in April doesn't include the 9.6" measured at NYC in April 1982 does it? Funny thing-- EWR measured around 13" in that one lol. Temperature definitely wasn't a problem. That was my first ever clear snowstorm memory and to this day my favorite late season snowstorm ever! I'm shocked the January total is so close to December and so far away from February, I suspect in our new climate we'll see January catch up to February within a few decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: Upton said wind threat has lessened. There is a 50 KT LLJ just a few hundred feet up which could easily mix down in the heavier convection in the usually windier spots. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 53 minutes ago, Rjay said: I know Nemo, Juno and Jonas. That's it. Never heard of them. I know. Moe, Larry and curly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Rjay said: Had HS baseball game snowed out that day but all melted and played following day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Those were marginal though and we need controlled scientific methods for measuring snowfall and the only ones that count for those are NYC, JFK, LGA....as much as we disagree with their measuring techniques, we have to use official NWS reporting sites and those are the only ones. Airports are great for measurements. But the heaviest bands often fall between them. Same goes for thunderstorms. So we have to rely on local spotter reports from trained observers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said: TBH, I do know which 3 storms those are, but I forget which is which. It's not like saying Sandy or Gloria. It's just dumb marketing. This is my biggest complaint. A private corporation taking it upon themselves to name storms in the guise of public good just screams greedy corporate marketing. When someone googles the name of a winter storm where do they end up going to get their information? The weather channel. Not the NWS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: Airports are great for measurements. But the heaviest bands often fall between them. Same goes for thunderstorms. So we have to rely on local spotter reports from trained observers. One of those measurements from March 2009 was mine and we definitely did have a foot of snow here but it was on March 1st and since February only has 28 days it sometimes makes me wonder if that should really be counted as a March event. It was all snow at least. The other one was not. One of the big problems with late season events is that as rates lessen, you get a mixture of precip, even if the temps are below freezing. You need a hard hitting multihour band of 2 inches per hour for like 6 hours to get a big snowstorm here in March and April. Also, I agree with people who said that the temps need to be in the 20s, we've had that for all of our big late season events....can't be around 32 or even just under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Nibor said: This is my biggest complaint. A private corporation taking it upon themselves to name storms in the guise of public good just screams greedy corportate marketing. When someone googles the name of a winter storm where do they end up going to get their information? The weather channel. Not the NWS. the NWS needs to have their own network apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: One of those measurements from March 2009 was mine and we definitely did have a foot of snow here but it was on March 1st and since February only has 28 days it sometimes makes me wonder if that should really be counted as a March event. It was all snow at least. The other one was not. One of the big problems with late season events is that as rates lessen, you get a mixture of precip, even if the temps are below freezing. You need a hard hitting multihour band of 2 inches per hour for like 6 hours to get a big snowstorm here in March and April. Also, I agree with people who said that the temps need to be in the 20s, we've had that for all of our big late season events....can't be around 32 or even just under. It’s interesting that March 1-15th has been better for 12”+ snowfall maxes in the OKX zones than the 2nd half of February since 2010. It has also been much better than all the 2 week periods before January 15th. So a snowfall max from mid-January to mid-February and a 2nd peak in early March. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods since 2010 and number of 12"+ snowstorms in OKX zones Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....3 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....6 Feb 1-Feb 15.....7 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....6 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: There is a 50 KT LLJ just a few hundred feet up which could easily mix down in the heavier convection in the usually windier spots. 500 feet up to be exact. Yes I know. Again gfs is over doing like it usually does with big wind lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Milder air returned to the region. As a result, temperatures rose into the 40s in most of the region and 50s in parts of southeastern Pennsylvania today. Tomorrow will be even warmer with the mercury reaching the upper 50s and lower 60s in much of the region. Overall, the stage is now set for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures during that time. The warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. However, uncertainty concerning a return of colder weather for the closing days of February or the first week of March has increased. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was -1.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +2.044. On February 14 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.385 (RMM). The February 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.428 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.0° (2.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 9 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said: 500 feet up to be exact. Yes I know. Again gfs is over doing like it usually does with big wind lol Euro has 60 mph winds down to 300 ft on Fire Island which is one of the windier spots in these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Part of LI did well on the 2nd event. Up here lost power for 3 days. That storm looks like the best example of the UHI affect, I honestly don't remember each individual storm that great but clearly central LI getting more than the city with this doesn't look based on track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: I just don't believe 10"+ snowstorms in March in NYC and urban western Long Island are possible anymore because of the extensive urbanization enhancing the effect of sun angle. 6"+ yes, 10"+ no. I mean I wont discount a fluke once in a 50 year event, but it's not something anyone should reasonably expect. Eastern Long Island and NW areas are a different story. The storms mentioned above should've happened in February or earlier.....March is just too late. I think it depends on track, NYC basically needs perfect track and intensity to pull it off which I guess supports your point if its reliant on an almost perfect setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: I think it depends on track, NYC basically needs perfect track and intensity to pull it off which I guess supports your point if its reliant on an almost perfect setup. It's certainly possible if the setup is right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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