brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: speaks for itself 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: the duality of man 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: speaks for itself Hopefully we cash in. March should theoretically be a lot more active/stormy than January. You have airmasses clashing, rapidly changing wave lengths, some of the most powerful coastals were in March. However the lack of any NAO/AO isn't promising. Not sure how important they are later in the season but imagine they're still good to have. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Even with all the great late season snowstorms in recent years, my all-time favorite still remains the April 1982 blizzard. An unusually high amount of lightning and true blizzard conditions in April. It was also the last time NYC had 3 consecutive record low temperatures in a row. My 2nd place late season event was that heavy wet snowstorm on 3-21-18. The trees were absolutely gorgeous when the sun came out the next morning. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Hopefully we cash in. March should theoretically be a lot more active/stormy than January. You have airmasses clashing, rapidly changing wave lengths, some of the most powerful coastals were in March. However the lack of any NAO/AO isn't promising. Not sure how important they are later in the season but imagine they're still good to have. That map has at least a neutral AO flavor to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Even with all the great late season snowstorms in recent years, my all-time favorite still remains the April 1982 blizzard. An unusually high amount of lightning and true blizzard conditions in April. It was also the last time NYC had 3 consecutive record low temperatures in a row. My 2nd place late season event was that heavy wet snowstorm on 3-21-18. The trees were absolutely gorgeous when the sun came out the next morning. I was in the Poconos for the April 1982 blizzard...I measured 13.5" in front of my house...drove home as the storm was ending (only car on the road)...my house in Brooklyn had 9" on the ground...the next day cold was just as anomalous with a max below freezing with clear skies...after the record cold another much lighter snowfall came...2" in the Poconos and 1" at Newark... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Even with all the great late season snowstorms in recent years, my all-time favorite still remains the April 1982 blizzard. An unusually high amount of lightning and true blizzard conditions in April. It was also the last time NYC had 3 consecutive record low temperatures in a row. My 2nd place late season event was that heavy wet snowstorm on 3-21-18. The trees were absolutely gorgeous when the sun came out the next morning. 55 minutes ago, Rjay said: I’ll add to the nostalgia of that one. I was living in SW Suffolk at the time and woke up to this. Incredible surprise! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Most of the storms that March were pretty frustrating but this one was the most frustrating, snowed all day and didn't stick at all. I'm going to say that if that storm would have happened in February it would have been all snow. There's a reason NYC doesn't get 10" plus snowstorms in March....urbanization enhancing the effects of sun angle. It's why I think we can get one or even two 6" snowstorms after February (in March and April), but the chances of a 10" snowfall in NYC drop down dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Those storms also had marginal temperatures for Long Island with the heaviest snows over the interior. The Hamptons jackpotted on the 13th with the storm further east. The best banding on the 21st was over Eastern Nassau to ISP. NYC not reaching 10” on that storm may have been another famous late under-measurement if the Gramercy Park total is to be believed. 3-13 storm Suffolk County... Southampton 18.3 332 PM 3/13 Trained Spotter 3-21 storm Newark Airport 8.3 800 AM 3/22 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER New York County... Grammercy Park 10.0 1115 PM 3/21 Law Enforcement Central Park 8.4 800 AM 3/22 Park Conservancy Queens County... Queens Village 14.5 738 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Suffolk County... Patchogue 20.1 852 AM 3/22 NWS Employee Terryville 19.7 724 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter East Patchogue 19.0 900 AM 3/22 Public Port Jefferson Stati 18.9 640 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter North Babylon 18.7 655 AM 3/22 Public Islip Airport 18.4 756 AM 3/22 FAA Observer I just don't believe 10"+ snowstorms in March in NYC and urban western Long Island are possible anymore because of the extensive urbanization enhancing the effect of sun angle. 6"+ yes, 10"+ no. I mean I wont discount a fluke once in a 50 year event, but it's not something anyone should reasonably expect. Eastern Long Island and NW areas are a different story. The storms mentioned above should've happened in February or earlier.....March is just too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 hours ago, bluewave said: I think for NYC recently it has been more about storm tracks in March. NYC missed going over 10” with Stella in March 2017 since the storm tucked too much with the +AO and March wavelengths. So there was a changeover around NYC and the big totals of 20-30” went NW. March 2018 featured the persistent near or just east of the benchmark tracks with the -AO and +PNA favoring Suffolk county for 30”. Chris I really think if double digit snowstorms were still reasonably possible in the city or western long island after February, they would've happened already but they haven't in decades despite the favorite new snowy climate we have. As for 20" plus...meh, the chances of getting hit by an extinction level asteroid are probably higher than NYC or urban western Long Island ever getting a 20" snowstorm after February. It's why we actually want snowy Decembers more than snowy Marches....snowy Decembers usually lead to more snowy winters. Dont get me wrong, I love to get a 6" storm in March or April, but we need to keep our expectations in check and not expect anything more than that. March 1993 was the last time NYC had a 10" snow event after February correct (and that changed to rain.) The last time we had an all snow snowstorm after the end of February was 10" in April 1982 (and it was actually 9.6" lol.....I'm not even sure when the last 10.0" plus storm after February was.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Urban heating really destroys the city accumulating in any kind of marginal events (which most March storms tend to be) . LI would actually have less issues generally in March than December because ocean is colder. Correct and we're talking about rural parts of Long Island doing a lot better after February. Western Long Island hasn't had any 10" event after February either, just like NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 hours ago, BxEngine said: You mean how you ignored the entire month of january? glass stones and all that. Back To the weather now. worse than that he always disappears just prior to and during snowstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: A torch is defined as being 10 or more above normal temperatures. With that said, in the OKX region, no records are expected to be broken as there in the mid- upper 60s. Uhm is he disputing the NWS? They specifically mentioned that there won't be record highs because records are in the middle and upper 60s and we're only going to be around 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: What date periods are you refereeing to? And are more specifying location? lol he's behaving like 60 degrees doesn't happen in February. We get 60 degrees almost every year in either or both December and February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: It depends what everyone's expectations of warm is. To expect constant 60's in March is so far from the norms it would be unhealthy. Even in NYC the average highs don't reach the mid 60's until late in April. I dont think "average" really explains the variety of our weather. We're in the 60s at least a few times almost every winter as far back as I can remember. Average is just a smoothing out of the extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 9 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Here is an example of pure luck. The 10 plus amounts are SOUTH and east. This could have easily added to the 10 plus March list. If it's heat island driven, then the stats for March 10 plus are misleading for anyone outside of Manhattan. No it's not luck, it's urbanization being a huge factor. I've often seen areas south of us have higher totals in late season events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: March 2013, March 2009 and a few more can be added to the list. I just feel that the 10+ snowfall list is very misleading to the forum. North south east and west of Manhattan. I believe that unless you are in Manhattan your chances of getting a 10+ snowfall in March are pretty decent and probably better than December. Not just Manhattan, I would include western Long Island and the rest of the city too. Basically all heavily urbanized areas around here. I prefer December much more for our big snowstorms than March. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 hours ago, Brian5671 said: March 2018 was wild with 3-4 big storms, lots of blocking and cold (for March) April had a nice snowstorm too, that was my favorite of that entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: No it's not luck, it's urbanization being a huge factor. I've often seen areas south of us have higher totals in late season events. Yea I'd agree as living in Manhattan for the past 8 years or so, temps cannot be marginal in order for the snow to sufficiently stick (outside of grassy areas though even there this is true to a point). Ideally, CPK should be at 30 or below. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Yea I'd agree as living in Manhattan for the past 8 years or so, temps cannot be marginal in order for the snow to sufficiently stick (outside of grassy areas though even there this is true to a point). Ideally, CPK should be at 30 or below. If we could get an event like March 1993 with those kinds of temps and not changeover...then we would be in business! Even in April (see April 1982). We need temps to be several degrees below freezing to combat the sun angle and urbanization factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 hours ago, HVSnowLover said: Winter storm Toby was the March storm in 2018 that accumulated fine in the city. Need it below 32 in March within the five boroughs to get good accumulations and probably below 30 in Manhattan. Toby means nothing. Which storm/date are you talking about? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Chris I really think if double digit snowstorms were still reasonably possible in the city or western long island after February, they would've happened already but they haven't in decades despite the favorite new snowy climate we have. As for 20" plus...meh, the chances of getting hit by an extinction level asteroid are probably higher than NYC or urban western Long Island ever getting a 20" snowstorm after February. It's why we actually want snowy Decembers more than snowy Marches....snowy Decembers usually lead to more snowy winters. Dont get me wrong, I love to get a 6" storm in March or April, but we need to keep our expectations in check and not expect anything more than that. March 1993 was the last time NYC had a 10" snow event after February correct (and that changed to rain.) The last time we had an all snow snowstorm after the end of February was 10" in April 1982 (and it was actually 9.6" lol.....I'm not even sure when the last 10.0" plus storm after February was.) Before 1993 the last 10 inch plus storm in March in NYC was March 3-4 1960 14.5 inches. There have been 67 storms of 10 inches or more in NYC since records have been kept the last 153 years. Here's the breakdown by month. No. Pct of total 10 + inch snows 1 1.5% November 13 19.4% December 16 23.9% January 26 38.8% February 9 13.4% March 2 3.0% April 67 100.0% Total 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: Toby means nothing. Which storm/date are you talking about? I know Nemo, Juno and Jonas. That's it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: April had a nice snowstorm too, that was my favorite of that entire season. The April storm dropped 8 inches here-crazy end to that wild period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I just don't believe 10"+ snowstorms in March in NYC and urban western Long Island are possible anymore because of the extensive urbanization enhancing the effect of sun angle. 6"+ yes, 10"+ no. I mean I wont discount a fluke once in a 50 year event, but it's not something anyone should reasonably expect. Eastern Long Island and NW areas are a different story. The storms mentioned above should've happened in February or earlier.....March is just too late. NYC had numerous 10”+ snowfall totals with the 3-21-18 snowstorm. The NYC UHI is most pronounced in Queens which had the heaviest 10”+ snowfall totals in that storm. So more about storm track and where the heaviest bands set up. There was also another 10”+ event in NYC and Western Nassau in March 2009. Public Information Statement Spotter Reports National Weather Service New York NY 500 PM EDT Thu Mar 22 2018...correction ..New York County... Grammercy Park 10.0 1115 PM 3/21 Law Enforcement Queens County... Queens Village 14.5 738 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Bayside 13.7 124 AM 3/22 Social Media Little Neck 13.2 415 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Woodhaven 13.0 1200 AM 3/22 Public Rego Park 12.0 800 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Woodside 12.0 730 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Oakland Gardens 10.8 530 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Cedar Manor 10.2 230 AM 3/22 CoCoRaHS Whitestone 10.0 101 AM 3/22 Social Media PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT SPOTTER REPORTS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 445 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2009 QUEENS COUNTY... REGO PARK 10.8 1050 AM 3/2 PUBLIC ASTORIA 10.5 1200 PM 3/2 PUBLIC BROAD CHANNEL 10.0 330 PM 3/2 PUBLIC HOWARD BEACH 10.0 1000 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER SPOTTER ...NASSAU COUNTY... HICKSVILLE 12.5 548 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER WOODMERE 12.4 200 PM 3/2 PUBLIC PLAINVIEW 12.1 1200 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER WANTAGH 11.8 600 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER ROCKVILLE CENTRE 11.5 400 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER ROSLYN HARBOR 11.5 100 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER BALDWIN PARK 11.0 200 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER BETHPAGE 10.9 1158 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER INWOOD 10.9 1200 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER LIDO BEACH 10.5 300 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER MILL NECK 10.2 245 PM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER SEAFORD 10.1 815 AM 3/2 SKYWARN SPOTTER FLORAL PARK 10.0 200 PM 3/2 PUBLIC 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: I know Nemo, Juno and Jonas. That's it. TBH, I do know which 3 storms those are, but I forget which is which. It's not like saying Sandy or Gloria. It's just dumb marketing. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Highs on Thursday will get well into the 50s, but shy of record highs. Lows Thursday night will be the 40s to around 50. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Wind event is looking less impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 The March 1993 nor-easter was one of my big favorites. I was up in the Berks in western MA, storm dropped 2ft of snow with winds gusting close to 65MPH. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: TBH, I do know which 3 storms those are, but I forget which is which. It's not like saying Sandy or Gloria. It's just dumb marketing. Nemo- Feb 2013 Juno- Jan 2015 Jonas- Jan 2016 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, wthrmn654 said: Wind event is looking less impressive. Euro really backed off-looks more run of mill with some gusts into the 40's except a bit higher out east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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