wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Funny how there’s no mention from you about the torch coming up lol Let’s look ahead to March and ignore it instead Define torch, 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, wthrmn654 said: Define torch, The possible record highs coming up….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the beginning of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent. However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low: So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP: This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain: I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking: Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, snowman19 said: The possible record highs coming up….. What date periods are you refereeing to? And are more specifying location? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Funny how there’s no mention from you about the torch coming up lol Let’s look ahead to March and ignore it instead You mean how you ignored the entire month of january? glass stones and all that. Back To the weather now. 5 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The possible record highs coming up….. A torch is defined as being 10 or more above normal temperatures. With that said, in the OKX region, no records are expected to be broken as there in the mid- upper 60s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The possible record highs coming up….. Which is why I asked where exactly were you talking about records being broken. Maybe jersey/ south? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Funny how there’s no mention from you about the torch coming up lol Let’s look ahead to March and ignore it instead I don't think anyone on here is denying that we are in for a substantial (yes, possibly record-breaking) warmup over the next 7 days or so. But trends over the past few days undeniably seem to favor a shorter duration one and possibly a return to a colder, snowier pattern than we originally thought for at least the first half of March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Perhaps the forum could correct me, however I feel like while NYC has had a hard time getting 10+ storms in March, Long island gets them far more frequently. What would be the cause of this? Like the storm below, being east seems as important as being north. Urban heating really destroys the city accumulating in any kind of marginal events (which most March storms tend to be) . LI would actually have less issues generally in March than December because ocean is colder. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I'm not sure exactly how late Feb & March will play out but it should be interesting if you enjoy stormy weather & not just snow. I'm definitely going to enjoy the milder weather though. Wasn't a fan of this recent cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Urban heating really destroys the city accumulating in any kind of marginal events (which most March storms tend to be) . LI would actually have less issues generally in March than December because ocean is colder. I think for NYC recently it has been more about storm tracks in March. NYC missed going over 10” with Stella in March 2017 since the storm tucked too much with the +AO and March wavelengths. So there was a changeover around NYC and the big totals of 20-30” went NW. March 2018 featured the persistent near or just east of the benchmark tracks with the -AO and +PNA favoring Suffolk county for 30”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, bluewave said: I think for NYC recently it has been more about storm tracks in March. NYC missed going over 10” with Stella in March 2017 since the storm tucked too much with the +AO and March wavelengths. So there was a changeover around NYC and the big totals of 20-30” went NW. March 2018 featured the persistent near or just east of the benchmark tracks with the -AO and +PNA favoring Suffolk county for 30”. the first two big nor'easters in march 2018 had good tracks for nyc but the airmass was too marginal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 a few degrees cooler and this would have been 12+ for all of the metro 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 42 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Nice weenie GFS run with snow threats both next Friday, next Sunday, and next Monday. Take a close look at the actual precip types associated with these events… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the first two big nor'easters in march 2018 had good tracks for nyc but the airmass was too marginal Yeah…the second storm crushed northern nj with 15-20. Nyc just missed the best of the ccb to its west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Take a close look at the actual precip types associated with these events… Thats why I said threats, Im not focused on precip types 200 hours plus out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm not sure exactly how late Feb & March will play out but it should be interesting if you enjoy stormy weather & not just snow. I'm definitely going to enjoy the milder weather though. Wasn't a fan of this recent cold. Agree this pattern seems more exciting, im actually kind of tired of cold all the time with ACY snowstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the first two big nor'easters in march 2018 had good tracks for nyc but the airmass was too marginal Those storms also had marginal temperatures for Long Island with the heaviest snows over the interior. The Hamptons jackpotted on the 13th with the storm further east. The best banding on the 21st was over Eastern Nassau to ISP. NYC not reaching 10” on that storm may have been another famous late under-measurement if the Gramercy Park total is to be believed. 3-13 storm Suffolk County... Southampton 18.3 332 PM 3/13 Trained Spotter 3-21 storm Newark Airport 8.3 800 AM 3/22 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER New York County... Grammercy Park 10.0 1115 PM 3/21 Law Enforcement Central Park 8.4 800 AM 3/22 Park Conservancy Queens County... Queens Village 14.5 738 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Suffolk County... Patchogue 20.1 852 AM 3/22 NWS Employee Terryville 19.7 724 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter East Patchogue 19.0 900 AM 3/22 Public Port Jefferson Stati 18.9 640 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter North Babylon 18.7 655 AM 3/22 Public Islip Airport 18.4 756 AM 3/22 FAA Observer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Funny how there’s no mention from you about the torch coming up lol Let’s look ahead to March and ignore it instead I’ve never disputed the above average temps coming up. All I stated is that it will not be prolonged. You’re very defensive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Heh how many remember that it was in the 60s in February 1994 for a few days after those back to back big snowstorms? 60s is no big deal in the winter. *Raises hand from the back* I remember it very well. It flooded like heck here in NW NJ (western Morris county to be exact) those days. If I recall, that was the winter that it either snowed or iced every Wednesday for like 7 weeks straight. Talk about being stuck in a pattern. Back to lurking... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 46 minutes ago, forkyfork said: a few degrees cooler and this would have been 12+ for all of the metro Most of the storms that March were pretty frustrating but this one was the most frustrating, snowed all day and didn't stick at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Winter storm Toby was the March storm in 2018 that accumulated fine in the city. Need it below 32 in March within the five boroughs to get good accumulations and probably below 30 in Manhattan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
golfer07840 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 hours ago, TriPol said: Oh FFS. Can we please, just once, have a warm spring? So much has been shut down over the past two years... I just want to get out and enjoy warm weather after work. When was the last legit warm spring? 2012? I recall several warm days around St Patrick's day. Though, I think we got freezing rain and cold again in April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, golfer07840 said: When was the last legit warm spring? 2012? I recall several warm days around St Patrick's day. Though, I think we got freezing rain and cold again in April. In terms of top 10 warmth, last year was the 7th warmest. But 2010 and 2012 are in a class by themselves. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 57.6 0 2 2010 57.4 0 3 1985 56.2 0 4 1991 56.0 0 5 1977 55.3 0 6 2016 54.9 0 - 2011 54.9 0 - 1945 54.9 0 7 2021 54.8 0 8 2004 54.7 0 - 1998 54.7 0 - 1986 54.7 0 9 2000 54.5 0 10 1973 54.4 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Those storms also had marginal temperatures for Long Island with the heaviest snows over the interior. The Hamptons jackpotted on the 13th with the storm further east. The best banding on the 21st was over Eastern Nassau to ISP. NYC not reaching 10” on that storm may have been another famous late under-measurement if the Gramercy Park total is to be believed. 3-13 storm Suffolk County... Southampton 18.3 332 PM 3/13 Trained Spotter 3-21 storm Newark Airport 8.3 800 AM 3/22 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER New York County... Grammercy Park 10.0 1115 PM 3/21 Law Enforcement Central Park 8.4 800 AM 3/22 Park Conservancy Queens County... Queens Village 14.5 738 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter Suffolk County... Patchogue 20.1 852 AM 3/22 NWS Employee Terryville 19.7 724 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter East Patchogue 19.0 900 AM 3/22 Public Port Jefferson Stati 18.9 640 AM 3/22 Trained Spotter North Babylon 18.7 655 AM 3/22 Public Islip Airport 18.4 756 AM 3/22 FAA Observer Part of LI did well on the 2nd event. Up here lost power for 3 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Part of LI did well on the 2nd event. Up here lost power for 3 days. Even with all the great late season snowstorms in recent years, my all-time favorite still remains the April 1982 blizzard. An unusually high amount of lightning and true blizzard conditions in April. It was also the last time NYC had 3 consecutive record low temperatures in a row. My 2nd place late season event was that heavy wet snowstorm on 3-21-18. The trees were absolutely gorgeous when the sun came out the next morning. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Big negative epo on the eps 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, golfer07840 said: When was the last legit warm spring? 2012? I recall several warm days around St Patrick's day. Though, I think we got freezing rain and cold again in April. Ironically I thought we had a nice normal ish spring last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 speaks for itself 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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