lee59 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 There is quite a temperature difference even among the suburban locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 hours ago, uncle W said: March/April 6" or greater snowstorms in Central Park... 6.0" 3/6-7/1870... 10.0" 4/13/1875... 21.0" 3/12-13/1888 6.0" 3/19/1890... 8.0" 3/17-18/1892... 6.0" 3/4/1893... 10.0" 3/2/1896... 12.0" 3/15-16/1896... 6.5" 3/3/1902... 6.0" 3/15/1906... 6.0" 3/10/1907... 14.5" 3/1-2/1914... 6.7" 3/6-7/1915... 10.2" 4/3-4/1915 7.6" 3/6/1916 6.7" 3/4-5/1917... 6.5" 4/8-9/1917... 7.3" 3/6-7/1923... 8.5" 4/1/1924... 6.4" 4/6-7/1938... 18.1" 3/7-8/1941... 6.4" 4/5/1944... 6.7" 3/16-17/1956... 11.6" 3/18-19/1956... 11.8" 3/20-21/1958... 14.5" 3/3-4/1960... 9.8" 3/21-22/1967... 6.6" 3/1/1968... 8.6" 3/5/1981... 9.6" 4/6/1982... 6.9" 3/8-9/1984... 6.2" 3/19/1992... 10.6" 3/13-14/1993... 7.7" 3/1/2005... 8.3" 3/1-2/2009... 7.5" 3/5/2015... 7.6" 3/14/2017... 8.4" 3/21-22/2018 That April 1915 storm was the same one that dumped close to 20" in Philly wasn't it? And NYC got close to 6" in the April 2018 snowstorm too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, bluewave said: I ran the numbers for our area between the 81-10 and the new 91-20 climate normals. December is the fastest warming month of winter and the entire year. So the record warmth this December fit the pattern. While spring and March has been warming, the rate is lower than the other seasons of the year. The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5 Why is December is warming so much faster than the other months? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: 16F in Hastings. That Heat Island in the city really kicks up just before/during a warm up. I wonder, scientifically, why that is. Probably because radiational cooling is usually at its best just before a warmup begins (because center of High pressure is close by). And radiational cooling is when the heat island effect rears its ugly head. I am SO glad the city has a plan to go green, all that ugly concrete needs to be completely torn out of the ground-- but I'd settle for 30% of it being removed by 2030 which is what the plans are to greenify the city and create urban gardens for much more healthy eating of fresh unprocessed food. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Who are you kidding? You posted back in early January I would be wearing short sleeves soon. Define soon because January was 3.5 degrees below normal and February through the first 2 weeks is exactly 1 degree above normal up here. Not exactly beach weather. Just because we will have 1 day near 60 does not make you right. It's currently 15* as I'm typing this. Heat wave I tell ya. Statistically speaking almost every damn winter has at least one day above 60 degrees. People look at normal temperatures way too much. Mark Twain had a thing or two to say about numbers..... Heh how many remember that it was in the 60s in February 1994 for a few days after those back to back big snowstorms? 60s is no big deal in the winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Unusually high pressure for our area this morning. It may have allowed some slight radiational cooling at LGA when the winds went calm. One of the rare times that LGA is cooler than NYC and JFK and close to Staten Island. 600 AM EST WED FEB 16 2022 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park PTCLDY 31 16 54 S3 30.73S LaGuardia Arpt MOCLDY 28 13 53 CALM 30.72R Kennedy Intl PTCLDY 31 20 63 S12 30.74R WCI 22 Newark Liberty PTCLDY 24 12 60 W5 30.72S WCI 18 Teterboro Arpt PTCLDY 21 13 71 N3 30.72R Bronx Lehman C N/A 32 16 51 S2 N/A Queens College N/A 32 19 59 S2 N/A Breezy Point NOT AVBL Brooklyn Coll N/A 32 21 64 S7 N/A WCI 26 Staten Island N/A 27 16 63 W2 N/A 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Looking forward to these temps for tomorrow . Not really looking forward to the wind threat tomorrow night though . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I don’t think March’s are becoming colder, they just feel colder with early winter warming. It’s pretty easy to see the connection to diminishing sea ice. The open water holds heat and it takes time for the Arctic to cool fully and that effects our cold air source. The Arctic is exactly where we need the most climate engineering. Fix the Arctic and that will fix everything else as far as that is concerned. How much liquid nitrogen do we need to dump there eh? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Statistically speaking almost every damn winter has at least one day above 60 degrees. People look at normal temperatures way too much. Mark Twain had a thing or two to say about numbers..... Heh how many remember that it was in the 60s in February 1994 for a few days after those back to back big snowstorms? 60s is no big deal in the winter. This many 60 degree days used to be rare during the winter. Now we are approaching 10 days this winter. So we are able to get the odd juxtaposition of winter 60s and snow close together which was typically the domain of March and April snows in the old days. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Weird temperature inversions this morning, at least per wunderground. I have 21, down the road in the valley is at 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: This many 60 degree days used to be rare during the winter. Now we are approaching 10 days this winter. So we are able to get the odd juxtaposition of winter 60s and snow close together which was typically the domain of March and April snows in the old days. Yes, the quantity near the high end is itself reaching record levels, but if we're talking about the highest temps we achieve each winter, that's pretty stable, no? So you could have let's say 8-9 60 degree highs now vs maybe 4-5 decades ago? But the top end high temps are around the same? Maybe there's a ceiling for the extreme temps and they very rarely get beyond a certain number-- for the winter I'd estimate that to be 70. We very rarely get temps AOB 70 and that hasn't changed since record keeping started. It would be interesting to bracket the frequency of high end temps....so let's say how many 60+ highs vs an earlier period, how many 65+ highs vs back then, how many 68+ (20C+) highs vs back then, 70+ etc. The higher up you go, the less the differences I would imagine, as we get closer to the ceiling. We're getting closer to a Denver type climate, I just wish the humidity would get as low as it is there. I love warm days and cool nights...we have some of that in Fall (November), but in Denver that's a common pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yes, the quantity near the high end is itself reaching record levels, but if we're talking about the highest temps we achieve each winter, that's pretty stable, no? So you could have let's say 8-9 60 degree highs now vs maybe 4-5 decades ago? But the top end high temps are around the same? Maybe there's a ceiling for the extreme temps and they very rarely get beyond a certain number-- for the winter I'd estimate that to be 70. We very rarely get temps AOB 70 and that hasn't changed since record keeping started. It would be interesting to bracket the frequency of high end temps....so let's say how many 60+ highs vs an earlier period, how many 65+ highs vs back then, how many 68+ (20C+) highs vs back then, 70+ etc. The higher up you go, the less the differences I would imagine, as we get closer to the ceiling. We're getting closer to a Denver type climate, I just wish the humidity would get as low as it is there. I love warm days and cool nights...we have some of that in Fall (November), but in Denver that's a common pattern. The top end winter 70-80° days have been increasing also. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017-2018 80 0 2 1998-1999 76 0 - 1948-1949 76 0 3 2016-2017 74 0 - 2001-2002 74 0 - 1996-1997 74 0 - 1953-1954 74 0 - 1949-1950 74 0 4 1984-1985 73 0 5 2006-2007 72 0 - 1982-1983 72 0 - 1946-1947 72 0 6 2015-2016 71 0 - 2013-2014 71 0 - 2010-2011 71 0 7 2019-2020 70 0 - 1997-1998 70 0 - 1978-1979 70 0 - 1938-1939 70 0 - 1931-1932 70 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Went from 17 to 29 in an hour at ISP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Gefs likes a return to colder temos by the end of the month 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: Went from 17 to 29 in an hour at ISP spray tan contaminated reading 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The top end winter 70-80° days have been increasing also. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through FebClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017-2018 80 0 2 1998-1999 76 0 - 1948-1949 76 0 3 2016-2017 74 0 - 2001-2002 74 0 - 1996-1997 74 0 - 1953-1954 74 0 - 1949-1950 74 0 4 1984-1985 73 0 5 2006-2007 72 0 - 1982-1983 72 0 - 1946-1947 72 0 6 2015-2016 71 0 - 2013-2014 71 0 - 2010-2011 71 0 7 2019-2020 70 0 - 1997-1998 70 0 - 1978-1979 70 0 - 1938-1939 70 0 - 1931-1932 70 0 Thats Newark though, the area hot spot. I noticed those of us to the east of there haven't seen any 80 degree temps in winter (the latest was 80 on November 15, 1993 if I remember correctly.) I'm always suspect of Newark temps because they are even warmer than Philly; Newark should be classified in a different climate type than the one we're in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 26 minutes ago, Torch said: There has always been a season “Lag” in the transition months, for those who think it is unusual for cooler springs. More rain is also a factor and springtime seems to see a -NAO with the highest frequency. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z eps Winter comes roaring back 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: 0z eps Winter comes roaring back Definitely colder but would want that trough a bit further west to avoid suppression. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Definitely colder but would want that trough a bit further west to avoid suppression. Agree Although the models right now are showing a swfe pattern . This would be ideal. There are also signs of the EPO and PNA going favorable again. The wavelengths are also shorter in March so storms don't need alot of space to amplify. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Agree Although the models right now are showing a swfe pattern . This would be ideal. There are also signs of the EPO and PNA going favorable again. The wavelengths are also shorter in March so storms don't need alot of space to amplify. This is where a SE ridge flex would help us! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Love the GEFS look 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Here is the end of the run where the PV is starting to lift out. Perfect overrunning storm signal. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, Rjay said: Went from 17 to 29 in an hour at ISP After a low of 16 here the temperature is already up to 33. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 0z eps Winter comes roaring back Yea it looks like the next few weeks are up and down between mild and cold. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, lee59 said: Yea it looks like the next few weeks are up and down between mild and cold. Volatility in March can equal massive storm payouts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Perhaps the forum could correct me, however I feel like while NYC has had a hard time getting 10+ storms in March, Long island gets them far more frequently. What would be the cause of this? Like the storm below, being east seems as important as being north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Here is an example of pure luck. The 10 plus amounts are SOUTH and east. This could have easily added to the 10 plus March list. If it's heat island driven, then the stats for March 10 plus are misleading for anyone outside of Manhattan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Currently 25F here, after an overnight low of 19F. High temp yesterday was 28F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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