February 2022

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is exactly what I was pondering. Is it a hard rule approx. 3 weeks or can it vary. When did last year's SSWE occur, as we started realizing success Feb 1.

There is no set interval between the date of the SSW and local effects for our area. We had a snowstorm on the same day as the one on 1-23-87. But some years it can take up to 3 weeks. So there is no way of trying to game out how long it will take for the influences to reach the troposphere as each event is unique. Plus we don’t know it the super long range EPS is even correct. It’s very difficult to predict these beyond 2 weeks. So if the weeklies turn out to be correct, then it would be quite an accomplishment. 
 

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 15F here this AM. High yesterday was 30F.

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There is no set interval between the date of the SSW and local effects for our area. We had a snowstorm on the same day as the one on 1-23-87. But some years it can take up to 3 weeks. So there is no way of trying to game out how long it will take for the influences to reach the troposphere as each event is unique. Plus we don’t know it the super long range EPS is even correct. It’s very difficult to predict these beyond 2 weeks. So if the weeklies turn out to be correct, then it would be quite an accomplishment. 
 

https://csl.noaa.gov/groups/csl8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

Speaking of the LR, I love this look for February

Neg EPO supplying the cold. Just enough SE ridge to avoid suppression.

To me I see a warmer 1994 here.

Also, I truly believe the Negative NAO hurt us in December as it created compression between the SE Ridge and the -NAO. This look of course would induce cutter risk, however with cutters you get bootleg blocking AND introduce weak trailing wave opportunities. I believe we would have had more snow with a positive NAO in December.

Finally, and I will admit I do not fully understand this, but we will have shorter wavelengths in second half of February. I am thinking this would mute the effects of a deep RNA.

 

[EasternLI]

3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Speaking of the LR, I love this look for February

Neg EPO supplying the cold. Just enough SE ridge to avoid suppression.

To me I see a warmer 1994 here.

Also, I truly believe the Negative NAO hurt us in December as it created compression between the SE Ridge and the -NAO. This look of course would induce cutter risk, however with cutters you get bootleg blocking AND introduce weak trailing wave opportunities. I believe we would have had more snow with a positive NAO in December.

Finally, and I will admit I do not fully understand this, but we will have shorter wavelengths in second half of February. I am thinking this would mute the effects of a deep RNA.

 

00z EPS for comparison. To me, these looks suggest risks of some arctic shots. With a ridge position like that. Plus the vortex biased towards the eastern half of Canada. Maybe some kind of split flow look? Don't just look at the colors. Check out the height lines as well. It looks as though there would be cold air dumping east of the rockies with these looks. This is different than December in that the ridge is much closer to the west coast instead of further west by the Aleutians. 

[bluewave]

32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Speaking of the LR, I love this look for February

Neg EPO supplying the cold. Just enough SE ridge to avoid suppression.

To me I see a warmer 1994 here.

Also, I truly believe the Negative NAO hurt us in December as it created compression between the SE Ridge and the -NAO. This look of course would induce cutter risk, however with cutters you get bootleg blocking AND introduce weak trailing wave opportunities. I believe we would have had more snow with a positive NAO in December.

Finally, and I will admit I do not fully understand this, but we will have shorter wavelengths in second half of February. I am thinking this would mute the effects of a deep RNA.

We are already seeing a model disagreement between the GEFS and the other guidance near the end of the ensemble runs on February 16th. The EPS and GEPS keep the +PNA pattern going. It could be related to the split forcing in the tropics. The convection south of India would normally produce a -PNA in February. But we see the lingering forcing near the Central Pacific which is more Nino-like as was the case in January. Forcing in that area favors a more +PNA in February. So that may be what the EPS and GEPS is picking up on.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts...

Today will be partly to mostly sunny but cold. Temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include:

New York City (Central Park): 33°
Newark: 33°
Philadelphia: 38°

Milder air will return tomorrow. A significant snowfall will blanket parts of the Great Lakes region, including Detroit.

Normals:
New York City: 30-Year: 39.9°; 15-Year: 40.1°
Newark: 30-Year: 40.5°; 15-Year: 40.8°
Philadelphia: 30-Year: 41.7°; 15-Year: 41.8°

30-Day Verification:

New York City (Central Park):
Average daily forecast: 34.2°
Average temperature: 34.9°
Average error: 1.7°

Newark:
Average daily forecast: 35.5°
Average temperature: 34.6°
Average error: 1.7°

Philadelphia:
Average daily forecast: 37.1°
Average temperature: 37.9°
Average error: 2.3°

 

[psv88]

5 degrees this morning. Incredible cold the past few weeks. Been a long time since weve had this many single digit days. 

That deep snowpack is really doing its thing. Cannot believe we got down to 5. 

[LoboLeader1]

 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

That AO dip is interesting. It does support some sort of coastal storm.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That AO dip is interesting. It does support some sort of coastal storm.

Active February ahead until the mjo possibly goes into 4

[snywx]

-1 for a low here.. this cold streak has been impressive 

[Franklin0529]

I'm more interested in the Sunday event.  That has a chance with some fresh cold air 

[CIK62]

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Moved from being a January post by mistake this AM..

Posted 5 hours ago

January ended at  30.3[-3.4] with 15.3"[+6.5"] of snow.

The first 8 days of February are averaging  25degs.(18/32) or -9.

Reached 38* here yesterday.

Today: 35-37, wind e., m. clear---cloudy late, little T change tonight.

26*(60%RH) here at 6am.     31* at 9am.       36* at Noon.        39* at 1pm.      Reached 44* at 4pm.      37* at 8pm.

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Active February ahead until the mjo possibly goes into 4

It's certainly a lot colder than I expected. Ensembles really want to keep the PNA which automatically increases our snow chances. 

MJO forecasts also backing out of going into phase 4

[Allsnow]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are already seeing a model disagreement between the GEFS and the other guidance near the end of the ensemble runs on February 16th. The EPS and GEPS keep the +PNA pattern going. It could be related to the split forcing in the tropics. The convection south of India would normally produce a -PNA in February. But we see the lingering forcing near the Central Pacific which is more Nino-like as was the case in January. Forcing in that area favors a more +PNA in February. So that may be what the EPS and GEPS is picking up on.

 

 

Yeah, convection lingering near Africa will help pump the pna 

[EasternLI]

Good grief if the 12z gefs comes to fruition with these looks. This is prime for some arctic intrusions. Starting sooner rather than later.

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

This outcome is really odd based on their 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and weeks 3-4 outlook. The 6-10 and 8-14 day for our area is below average temperature and weeks 3-4 is equal chances. They must be banking on some really warm days towards the end of the month, but then again the weeks 3-4 outlook should hint at this and be above normal. If we are above normal, I think it will be within 1F. 

 

Edit: the 8-14 day is slightly above.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, LoboLeader1 said:

 

So basically take Nina climo for a February and print it out. Got it.  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Yeah, convection lingering near Africa will help pump the pna 

There also seems to be some connection to what we had with the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge back in the 2015 El Niño.  Notice how close the forcing was this January to 2015. Both years had convection from the CP to WPAC. This was the coldest January since 2015. We also had a blizzard track not far from Juno with the heaviest snows from LI to SE New England. The +PNA and -EPO this January was just a little weaker than January 2015. So it’s possible the models showing more of a +PNA in February may be the pattern lingering from January. 
 

Comparison of January 2022 to 2015 with Nino-like forcing from CP to WPAC
 

 

 

[Eduardo]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There also seems to be some connection to what we had with the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge back in the 2015 El Niño.  Notice how close the forcing was this January to 2015. Both years had convection from the CP to WPAC. This was the coldest January since 2015. We also had a blizzard track not far from Juno with the heaviest snows from LI to SE New England. The +PNA and -EPO this January was just a little weaker than January 2015. So it’s possible the models showing more of a +PNA in February may be the pattern lingering from January. 
 

Comparison of January 2022 to 2015 with Nino-like forcing from CP to WPAC
 

 

 

Nice post, Chris.  Sign me up!

[Allsnow]

[George001]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Holy shit that looks like the pattern we just had for January

[Yanksfan]

19 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

I guess we can put that February torch talk to bed.

[EasternLI]

8 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are already seeing a model disagreement between the GEFS and the other guidance near the end of the ensemble runs on February 16th. The EPS and GEPS keep the +PNA pattern going. It could be related to the split forcing in the tropics. The convection south of India would normally produce a -PNA in February. But we see the lingering forcing near the Central Pacific which is more Nino-like as was the case in January. Forcing in that area favors a more +PNA in February. So that may be what the EPS and GEPS is picking up on.

 

 

Yeah, it's a great point. I was thinking about this a little. Kind of goes along with the ideas of patterns lingering in recent years. But also, check out the 2 areas of tropical convection there. Compared to the actual (not anomalies) sst. It lines up really well with the warmest water. But the cooler water near Indonesia is playing a role to it appears. That's interesting.

[MJO812]

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

March/April 2018 was the snowiest March onward year of my life.

Storm totals

10 (medium sized tree fell on my house)

2.5

9.5

6 (April).

Absolutely insane.

If the exact same scenario played out the last 2 would be in scope tim wise. 

 

I wonder if we had an SSW in 1967 too-- did you look up the records of how amazing February and March 1967 were?

 

[LibertyBell]

10 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Here another thing to ponder. The one constant this year has been a Neg EPO. 2018 was warmer leading in if I am not mistaken. 

If it happens this year we would not have to wait as long for the air mass to cool.

exactly much less resistance this year since it's already cold.

Did we also have a SSW in 2015?  What was the reason for the big turnaround for the 2014-15 winter?

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

After March 15 I'm done with winter so hopefully the sswe is a false flag.

false flag? this isn't a war dude, it's nature, which follows certain laws.