MJO812 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this pattern would provide lots of chances for us heading into March development of a stout -EPO lets cold air bleed S... would probably be overrunning primarily but coastals could be more favored as the pattern matures. good stuff Beautiful epo ridge showing up on every model. This isn't your typical nina. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this pattern would provide lots of chances for us heading into March development of a stout -EPO lets cold air bleed S... would probably be overrunning primarily but coastals could be more favored as the pattern matures. good stuff Wow thats a great look and much sooner than we thought....seems like by next weekend...I am always cautious of rushing pattern changes though so lets see how quickly the PNA return to positive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: this pattern would provide lots of chances for us heading into March development of a stout -EPO lets cold air bleed S... would probably be overrunning primarily but coastals could be more favored as the pattern matures. good stuff We reshuffle the deck this week and next. Glad to get a break from the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Still looking good on the CFS Extended: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 6 hours ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Wow that torch is looking amazing a certain individual was swearing by. Once again open mouth, insert foot… weather gods humble yet again LOL We are looking at record highs in a few days but yea, there’s going to be no torch at all…it’s all a mirage the next 2 weeks it’s really going to be record cold. I wish they had clown emojis on here 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Today saw the temperature bottom out at 16° in Central Park. New York City has now gone 1,111 consecutive days without a temperature below 10°. That is the second longest such streak on record. The record of 1,410 days was set from February 18, 1930 through December 28, 1933. That record could be surpassed on December 12th. As no single-digit readings are likely through the remainder of February and the last such occurrence during the March 1-December 12 period was December 12, 1988, it is likely that the record will fall. In addition, 4 of the 5 1,000-day streaks have occurred since 1990, with 3 occurring since 2000. Records go back to 1869. Milder air will pour into the region starting tomorrow. This will set the stage for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures. Thursday and Friday are two such potential days. Strong winds are also possible later Thursday into Friday. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. Cooler weather could develop afterward, but uncertainty concerning the timing of such a shift exists. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was -16.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.452. On February 13 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.429 (RMM). The February 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.247 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.2° (2.3° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Tapped out at 28 here today. Good chance temps get near 60 here on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Highest forecast temps for my area in the 5-10 day period is only 53. Cold water temps deft negating any big warmth especially with winds blowing around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: this pattern would provide lots of chances for us heading into March development of a stout -EPO lets cold air bleed S... would probably be overrunning primarily but coastals could be more favored as the pattern matures. good stuff That's definitely a look that could yield some serious cold for early March. Let's hope we get some more snow chances too. The lack of NATL blocking makes me wary, but we've done well even in times where it's been absent over the past decade. I'm def hopeful that the first half of March'll be fun before we close the shades! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 The winter seasons have been shifting and it was proven/documented somewhere by researchers. Less cold in December but more cold in March has been happening more and more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: yeah I'm 7 miles NW of there and we had easily 25 inches give or take a couple. I'm surprised no one has ever gone back to adjust it. For the Blizzard of 2013 they measured 30 inches which was spot on given surrounding reports. why doesn't someone protest the totals for Jan 1996? Withhold funding until they bring the totals in line with the rest of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said: Where did I mention record cold? You’re not the brightest crayon in the box are you…. he's a square peg in a round world, he just doesn't fit in anywhere lol "it's not hip to be square" (a twist on the famous song from American Psycho and Huey Lewis and the News lol.) So this explains what Snowman19 does when it's snowing around here, he's not on the forum because he's out on the town letting out his frustrations on the world lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: We are looking at record highs in a few days but yea, there’s going to be no torch at all…it’s all a mirage the next 2 weeks it’s really going to be record cold. I wish they had clown emojis on here I often wish there were “find a new hobby instead of stalking people that like snow”emojis on here, but certainly no one person in particular in mind. I’m just throwing out random suggestions. 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: We are looking at record highs in a few days but yea, there’s going to be no torch at all…it’s all a mirage the next 2 weeks it’s really going to be record cold. I wish they had clown emojis on here They do. I'm surprised you didn't get any yet. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I often wish there were “find a new hobby instead of stalking people that like snow”emojis on here, but certainly no one person in particular in mind. I’m just throwing out random suggestions. Hey he's fun when you can come up with random funny movie references to describe him. American Psycho was one of my favorite movies of all time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 March/April 6" or greater snowstorms in Central Park... 6.0" 3/6-7/1870... 10.0" 4/13/1875... 21.0" 3/12-13/1888 6.0" 3/19/1890... 8.0" 3/17-18/1892... 6.0" 3/4/1893... 10.0" 3/2/1896... 12.0" 3/15-16/1896... 6.5" 3/3/1902... 6.0" 3/15/1906... 6.0" 3/10/1907... 14.5" 3/1-2/1914... 6.7" 3/6-7/1915... 10.2" 4/3-4/1915 7.6" 3/6/1916 6.7" 3/4-5/1917... 6.5" 4/8-9/1917... 7.3" 3/6-7/1923... 8.5" 4/1/1924... 6.4" 4/6-7/1938... 18.1" 3/7-8/1941... 6.4" 4/5/1944... 6.7" 3/16-17/1956... 11.6" 3/18-19/1956... 11.8" 3/20-21/1958... 14.5" 3/3-4/1960... 9.8" 3/21-22/1967... 6.6" 3/1/1968... 8.6" 3/5/1981... 9.6" 4/6/1982... 6.9" 3/8-9/1984... 6.2" 3/19/1992... 10.6" 3/13-14/1993... 7.7" 3/1/2005... 8.3" 3/1-2/2009... 7.5" 3/5/2015... 7.6" 3/14/2017... 8.4" 3/21-22/2018 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Great. A good pattern in march. So snow that melts in a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Does anyone know how old snowman is, either an old grumpy man or a young kid is my guess 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: The winter seasons have been shifting and it was proven/documented somewhere by researchers. Less cold in December but more cold in March has been happening more and more. I don’t think March’s are becoming colder, they just feel colder with early winter warming. It’s pretty easy to see the connection to diminishing sea ice. The open water holds heat and it takes time for the Arctic to cool fully and that effects our cold air source. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I don’t think March’s are becoming colder, they just feel colder with early winter warming. It’s pretty easy to see the connection to diminishing sea ice. The open water holds heat and it takes time for the Arctic to cool fully and that effects our cold air source. Climate experts say it's shifting what used to be cold in December has shifted later, March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I don’t think March’s are becoming colder, they just feel colder with early winter warming. It’s pretty easy to see the connection to diminishing sea ice. The open water holds heat and it takes time for the Arctic to cool fully and that effects our cold air source. This isn't the exact article but it essentially says the same thing. https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/2022-01-21-coldest-day-of-the-year-us-changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: I don’t think March’s are becoming colder, they just feel colder with early winter warming. It’s pretty easy to see the connection to diminishing sea ice. The open water holds heat and it takes time for the Arctic to cool fully and that effects our cold air source. This is also not it lol but shows how March been getting colder seasonally wise. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.fox9.com/weather/its-not-your-imagination-spring-in-minnesota-is-getting-colder-while-the-rest-of-the-year-warms.amp&ved=2ahUKEwjzvJ2og4P2AhWIlYkEHXbYBLgQFnoECEoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1ryHqGLoQqIAIjWkVtWmDm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Come on everyone! Weenie me!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Directly from NWS: Believe it or not, today was warmer than yesterday, even though temperatures were at or below the freezing mark (32 degrees or lower). The warming trend continues into Thursday as a southerly wind develops. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s across the entire forecast area and 50s on Thursday. Portions of NYC and northeast NJ may see highs around 60! Records on Thursday don't seem to be in danger as they are in the middle 60s. #NYws #NJwx #CTwx 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 hours ago, snowman19 said: We are looking at record highs in a few days but yea, there’s going to be no torch at all…it’s all a mirage the next 2 weeks it’s really going to be record cold. I wish they had clown emojis on here Who are you kidding? You posted back in early January I would be wearing short sleeves soon. Define soon because January was 3.5 degrees below normal and February through the first 2 weeks is exactly 1 degree above normal up here. Not exactly beach weather. Just because we will have 1 day near 60 does not make you right. It's currently 15* as I'm typing this. Heat wave I tell ya. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy and milder. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 46° Philadelphia: 51° Tomorrow and Friday will be vary warm days. It will also turn very windy later tomorrow into Friday. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 42.4° Newark: 30-Year: 43.2°; 15-Year: 43.3° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.5°; 15-Year: 44.3° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(33/50) or +5. Month to date is 35.6[+0.9]. Should be 37.5[+2.3] by the 24th. Yesterday: Reached 34* here. Today: 44-47, wind s. to w., variable clouds, 43-48 by tomorrow AM. 31*(64%RH) here at 6am.{was 29* at midnight} 35* at 9pm. 40* at Noon. 42* at 2pm. 45* at 11pm. Wind-Rain Thurs. night. About 0.6" by Friday Noon. Latest gusts on the GFS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Heat island in full affect this morning, 31 degrees in Central Park and teens in many suburbs. 19 here after a low of 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 16F in Hastings. That Heat Island in the city really kicks up just before/during a warm up. I wonder, scientifically, why that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 10 hours ago, wthrmn654 said: This is also not it lol but shows how March been getting colder seasonally wise. https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.fox9.com/weather/its-not-your-imagination-spring-in-minnesota-is-getting-colder-while-the-rest-of-the-year-warms.amp&ved=2ahUKEwjzvJ2og4P2AhWIlYkEHXbYBLgQFnoECEoQAQ&usg=AOvVaw1ryHqGLoQqIAIjWkVtWmDm I ran the numbers for our area between the 81-10 and the new 91-20 climate normals. December is the fastest warming month of winter and the entire year. So the record warmth this December fit the pattern. While spring and March has been warming, the rate is lower than the other seasons of the year. The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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