February 2022

[MJO812]

Models are moving away from the warmup in March with a negative epo pattern. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, looking similar. 

Another wave breaker pattern change near the beginning of March.  All the models have a deep low pressure in the 930s next week to the north of Japan. This combines with the MJO to eventually push the ridge back to the West Coast and eventually flatten out the SE Ridge near the start of March. It’s interesting that a similar process lead to the early December pattern change. But this time the MJO has different teleconnections for later in the season allowing a shift from late February warmth to early March cold. The big story this year is the reliable pattern changes near the start of every month. Cold in November…record warmth in December…coldest January since 2015 with record snows….shift to warmer in February with less snow….shifting back colder as we start March. 

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another wave breaker pattern change near the beginning of March.  All the models have a deep low pressure in the 930s next week to the north of Japan. This combines with the MJO to eventually push the ridge back to the West Coast and eventually flatten out the SE Ridge near the start of March. It’s interesting that a similar process lead to the early December pattern change. But this time the MJO has different teleconnections for later in the season allowing a shift from late February warmth to early March cold. The big story this year is the reliable pattern changes near the start of every month. Cold in November…record warmth in December…coldest January since 2015 with record snows….shift to warmer in February with less snow….shifting back colder as we start March. 

 

The Euro MJO is flying through 3-4-5-6 . What's the cause of it happening?  Less tropical convection?

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The Euro MJO is flying through 3-4-5-6 . What's the cause of it happening?  Less tropical convection?

And how do you know that the MJO isn’t being rushed like what just happened this month? How do you know it’s not changing the pattern too fast…..again? Remember when everything had early February torching because they were too fast with the MJO?

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And how do you know that the MJO isn’t being rushed like what just happened this month? How do you know it’s not changing the pattern too fast…..again? Remember when everything had early February torching because they were too fast with the MJO?

I asked a simple question

Answer it or get off my post 

[ILoveWinter]

10 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And how do you know that the MJO isn’t being rushed like what just happened this month? How do you know it’s not changing the pattern too fast…..again? Remember when everything had early February torching because they were too fast with the MJO?

Did you ask yourself these questions when you were harping on the early Feb torch due to the MJO forecast? The models have been rushing pattern changes for a while now...

[rclab]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another wave breaker pattern change near the beginning of March.  All the models have a deep low pressure in the 930s next week to the north of Japan. This combines with the MJO to eventually push the ridge back to the West Coast and eventually flatten out the SE Ridge near the start of March. It’s interesting that a similar process lead to the early December pattern change. But this time the MJO has different teleconnections for later in the season allowing a shift from late February warmth to early March cold. The big story this year is the reliable pattern changes near the start of every month. Cold in November…record warmth in December…coldest January since 2015 with record snows….shift to warmer in February with less snow….shifting back colder as we start March. 

 

Good morning and thank you BW. I keep thinking that predictable atmospheric extremes = functional atmospheric insanity. I should keep my higher math deficiencies to myself but there’s no fun in that. As always …

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4° for the low this morning.

Consecutive days of snow cover now at 40, although a much better looking snow cover now after the 4 inch refresher on Sunday morning. Impressive for a winter that has only seen 25.9 inches of snow up here so far.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

And how do you know that the MJO isn’t being rushed like what just happened this month? How do you know it’s not changing the pattern too fast…..again? Remember when everything had early February torching because they were too fast with the MJO?

And remember when you told everyone the max snowfall for Sunday would be 1 inch and everyone in the forum received 3-5 inches. Well except for the one inch you claim to have received.

[EasternLI]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Another wave breaker pattern change near the beginning of March.  All the models have a deep low pressure in the 930s next week to the north of Japan. This combines with the MJO to eventually push the ridge back to the West Coast and eventually flatten out the SE Ridge near the start of March. It’s interesting that a similar process lead to the early December pattern change. But this time the MJO has different teleconnections for later in the season allowing a shift from late February warmth to early March cold. The big story this year is the reliable pattern changes near the start of every month. Cold in November…record warmth in December…coldest January since 2015 with record snows….shift to warmer in February with less snow….shifting back colder as we start March. 

 

Yeah, great post. I was looking at that briefly this morning. You can sort of see the wave break happening if you loop the ensemble runs. That's one way to shake things up. Interesting too that this similar process initiated the feedback loop with the MJO earlier this season I think. So it'll be interesting to see how this all works together this time. It's been fascinating watching the progression of everything. Intriguing season from a pattern perspective.

[Dark Star]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And remember when you told everyone the max snowfall for Sunday would be 1 inch and everyone in the forum received 3-5 inches. Well except for the one inch you claim to have received.

Everyone?

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

And remember when you told everyone the max snowfall for Sunday would be 1 inch and everyone in the forum received 3-5 inches. Well except for the one inch you claim to have received.

I got 2.5 here in Brooklyn.

[Dark Star]

32 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning and thank you BW. I keep thinking that predictable atmospheric extremes = functional atmospheric insanity. I should keep my higher math deficiencies to myself but there’s no fun in that. As always …

"Higher math deficiences", priceless.  I struggled through 4 semesters of calculus.  Took the last course pass/fail.   At least I am no longer afraid of math.  Sad to see so many people working in retail giving the wrong change, even with computerized registers.   Giving them coins to round up to an even dollar really confuses them...  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

13 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

Everyone?

For the most part yes. Even Central Park received almost 3 inches despite reporting 1.6, but that's par for the course as they revert back this year to the old days of under measuring.

[Brian5671]

Even BDR the bastion of undermeasuring (they reported 14 during the 95-96 blizzard) measured 3.4  (which is consistent with what I got here)

[winterwx21]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I got 2.5 here in Brooklyn.

Yeah some spots got more, but it was a 2 to 4 inch snowfall for the majority of the area. But definitely much more than snowman predicted.

 

I'm glad the early March pattern is looking interesting. We'll need a good March snowstorm to get to normal snowfall here west of the city. Hopefully the pattern will deliver.

[HeadInTheClouds]

20 after a morning low of 7. 

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, great post. I was looking at that briefly this morning. You can sort of see the wave break happening if you loop the ensemble runs. That's one way to shake things up. Interesting too that this similar process initiated the feedback loop with the MJO earlier this season I think. So it'll be interesting to see how this all works together this time. It's been fascinating watching the progression of everything. Intriguing season from a pattern perspective.

The common denominator to this winter pattern has been the record North Pacific blocking. The ridge has been shifting back and forth each month since December. So we get this extreme volatility from month to month and day to day. The tropical forcing and wave breaks seem to be acting as catalysts for the changes.  Standard MJO relationships and composites haven’t matched the canonical expectations this winter. So we have been getting a mash up of competing influences. Maybe the return of the West Coast Ridge near the start of March also has mixed causes and any specific MJO composites won’t  really capture the totality of the pattern.

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Even BDR the bastion of undermeasuring (they reported 14 during the 95-96 blizzard) measured 3.4  (which is consistent with what I got here)

I never realized they recorded 14 inches for the Jan 96 blizzard. And I thought Central Parks 20.2  for that event was horrendous, most agree that was 24-27 easily. 

That Bridgeport report is just egregious. 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Wow that torch is looking amazing a certain individual was swearing by. Once again open mouth, insert foot… weather gods humble yet again LOL

[Allsnow]

This doesn’t look like cold phases by March to me 

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, Monmouth_County_Jacpot said:

Wow that torch is looking amazing a certain individual was swearing by. Once again open mouth, insert foot… weather gods humble yet again LOL

All the warm calls for March will bust if the models are correct especially for early March

[ILoveWinter]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For the most part yes. Even Central Park received almost 3 inches despite reporting 1.6, but that's par for the course as they revert back this year to the old days of under measuring.

I can confirm this as I live pretty close to the park and I measured 3

[EasternLI]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The common denominator to this winter pattern has been the record North Pacific blocking. The ridge has been shifting back and forth each month since December. So we get this extreme volatility from month to month and day to day. The tropical forcing and wave breaks seem to be acting as catalysts for the changes.  Standard MJO relationships and composites haven’t matched the canonical expectations this winter. So we have been getting a mash up of competing influences. Maybe the return of the West Coast Ridge near the start of March also has mixed causes and any specific MJO composites won’t  really capture the totality of the pattern.

 

It's been really cool to follow this particular season. So we have that North Pacific Ridge courtesy mostly of the la Niña I'm assuming. Maybe some kind of QBO influence with that feature as well (speculation). With the tropical forcing and wave breaking events seemingly shifting that main feature around occasionally. Perhaps some sort of PV influence now at this point too with the coupling to the troposphere. It's always amazing to me, to think about how everything is interconnected and how they all work together to drive the weather patterns. Curious to see how this plays out. With interest in this MJO event remaining as it pertains to ENSO next season as well. But that's for further into March. 

[psv88]

Temps really not budging today, only 24

[EasternLI]

[forkyfork]

yeah it'll probably cool down a bit in two weeks but in the meantime we're looking at record highs in a few days

[Brian5671]

3 hours ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

I never realized they recorded 14 inches for the Jan 96 blizzard. And I thought Central Parks 20.2  for that event was horrendous, most agree that was 24-27 easily. 

That Bridgeport report is just egregious. 

yeah I'm 7 miles NW of there and we had easily 25 inches give or take a couple.   I'm surprised no one has ever gone back to adjust it.  For the Blizzard of 2013 they measured 30 inches which was spot on given surrounding reports.

[bluewave]

The warm spots could make a run on 10 days reaching 60° for the DJF winter period. First surge of 60°+ will be from later Thursday into Friday with the 60 mph gust potential. Then another warm up next week with more 60° potential. It used to be rare to get this many 60° days during the winter. But the winter 60° days have been steadily increasing.

 

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

this pattern would provide lots of chances for us heading into March

development of a stout -EPO lets cold air bleed S... would probably be overrunning primarily but coastals could be more favored as the pattern matures. good stuff