HeadInTheClouds Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 It's amazing to me how rare it is for the city get to zero or slightly below. I mean that's not even that cold tbh. I have been at zero or below about 5 times this year alone. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Despite bright sunshine, temperatures remained in the middle and upper 20s across much of the region today. A stiff breeze added to the icy feel. Tomorrow will be another fair but unseasonably cold day. Afterward, milder air will pour into the region setting the stage for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures. Thursday and Friday are two such potential days. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 9. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least mid-March. The SOI was -12.20 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.246. On February 12 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.253 (RMM). The February 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.203 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 86% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 38.1° (2.2° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 27 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: It's amazing to me how rare it is for the city get to zero or slightly below. I mean that's not even that cold tbh. I have been at zero or below about 5 times this year alone. It was the first time that NYC dropped below 0° since 1994. But POU still hasn’t reached -20 or colder since 1994. Looks like -14 has been the best POU has been able to do since 2010. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1961-04-30 -30 0 2 1967-04-30 -23 0 - 1951-04-30 -23 0 3 1954-04-30 -22 0 4 1994-04-30 -20 9 - 1981-04-30 -20 0 - 1968-04-30 -20 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2022-04-30 -3 76 2021-04-30 -3 0 2020-04-30 5 0 2019-04-30 -4 0 2018-04-30 -14 0 2017-04-30 -1 0 2016-04-30 -6 0 2015-04-30 -14 0 2014-04-30 -9 0 2013-04-30 -5 0 2012-04-30 1 1 2011-04-30 -14 1 2010-04-30 -1 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are possible late Thursday into early Friday as a strong frontal system tracks through the area. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 hours ago, psv88 said: Still have blowing snow out here. Beautiful This certainly was a winter experience. Looks like we'll get one more day of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 37 minutes ago, bluewave said: It was the first time that NYC dropped below 0° since 1994. But POU still hasn’t reached -20 or colder since 1994. Looks like -14 has been the best POU has been able to do since 2010. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1961-04-30 -30 0 2 1967-04-30 -23 0 - 1951-04-30 -23 0 3 1954-04-30 -22 0 4 1994-04-30 -20 9 - 1981-04-30 -20 0 - 1968-04-30 -20 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2022-04-30 -3 76 2021-04-30 -3 0 2020-04-30 5 0 2019-04-30 -4 0 2018-04-30 -14 0 2017-04-30 -1 0 2016-04-30 -6 0 2015-04-30 -14 0 2014-04-30 -9 0 2013-04-30 -5 0 2012-04-30 1 1 2011-04-30 -14 1 2010-04-30 -1 3 Why is it so hard for NYC to get that low? Way too much UHI and traffic and air pollution artificially heating up the big cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Today is the 6th anniversary of the first NYC below 0° day since 1994. Only in our post 2010 climate could NYC drop below 0° in February following a +13.3° December. Then we had one of our recent temperature swings to 54° two days later followed 60s on February 20th. Back then LGA was colder than the other city locations for morning lows. JFK didn't get lower than 0 in 1994 did they? And the last time they were below zero was -2 in 1985 (when LGA reached -3)? The UHI and traffic and air pollution must've been much less in 1985 than it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: It was the first time that NYC dropped below 0° since 1994. But POU still hasn’t reached -20 or colder since 1994. Looks like -14 has been the best POU has been able to do since 2010. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1961-04-30 -30 0 2 1967-04-30 -23 0 - 1951-04-30 -23 0 3 1954-04-30 -22 0 4 1994-04-30 -20 9 - 1981-04-30 -20 0 - 1968-04-30 -20 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2022-04-30 -3 76 2021-04-30 -3 0 2020-04-30 5 0 2019-04-30 -4 0 2018-04-30 -14 0 2017-04-30 -1 0 2016-04-30 -6 0 2015-04-30 -14 0 2014-04-30 -9 0 2013-04-30 -5 0 2012-04-30 1 1 2011-04-30 -14 1 2010-04-30 -1 3 That chart shows -14 in 2015 and 2018. I'm usually a few degrees colder than that reporting station also. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 52 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: That chart shows -14 in 2015 and 2018. I'm usually a few degrees colder than that reporting station also. You got weenie'ed for some odd reason for reporting your temps.....thats a new one! lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: This certainly was a winter experience. Looks like we'll get one more day of this. Looks like no snow threats again until early March when the pattern may or may not change. At this point im fine having some springlike weather, its been so cold for the mostpart since early January. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said: That chart shows -14 in 2015 and 2018. I'm usually a few degrees colder than that reporting station also. POU had a 1F daily max in January '57. It's hard to imaging challenging that record any time soon, seeing as there hasn't been a single-digit high since 2003. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Stunning day today in Smithtown after the Super Bowl Sunday snowfall (2022 edition), despite occasional blowing snow : 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 this is gorgeous. big March 2015 vibes with a cold overrunning pattern -EPO with split flow 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is gorgeous. big March 2015 vibes with a cold overrunning pattern -EPO with split flow One of my favorite Marches. It was much colder back then though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 37 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is gorgeous. big March 2015 vibes with a cold overrunning pattern -EPO with split flow That would yield interesting results. I guess we could be going back to our cool Nov/March + torch Dec/Feb pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Currently 13F here as of 5AM. High temp yesterday was 22F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 The weeklies turned out to be right in the end about a February torch….they were just too fast with it….about 2 weeks too fast, they rushed the MJO 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Continues to look interesting by March 1 and after per 00z/15 ensembles. GEFS is even tossing a snow event out there in the ensembles from the VA's northeastward around March 1-2. Also sensing more and more that this coming warmth is about 2 days at a time, Wed-Thu night and next Wednesday ish. Noting all ensembles are chilling 850MB to near normal by 25th-26th when the door opens for ice or snow possibilities involved with the precip events. Expecting spotty wind damage Thu night in parts of our area....mixed down with showers. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Morning thoughts… Today will be mostly sunny and cold. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 32° Newark: 33° Philadelphia: 36° Noticeably warmer weather will return to the region, as a sustained warmer than normal pattern develops tomorrow. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 42.2° Newark: 30-Year: 43.0°; 15-Year: 43.1° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.2°; 15-Year: 44.0 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 11 degrees here in Brick imby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is gorgeous. big March 2015 vibes with a cold overrunning pattern -EPO with split flow Thanks! Do the EPS look good too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Current temp is 16 after an overnight low of 15 here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 13 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Thanks! Do the EPS look good too? Yeah, looking similar. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 39degs.(31/47) or +4. Month to date is 36.5[+1.9]. Should be 37.4[+2.5] by the 23rd. Reached 27 here yesterday. Today: 27-30, wind w. to s. late, m. clear, T steady overnight, 27 by tomorrow AM Chance of at least 1" of snow during the next 16 days is under 50%. 18*(48%RH) here at 6am. 20* at 9am. 25* at Noon. 27* at 1pm. Reached 34* around 4pm. 29* at 6pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 7 currently; single digit lows keep piling up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 34 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, looking similar. Thanks. Trough is a bit further east but solid overrunning. IMO GEFS could introduce suppression similar to 2014. EPS seems to have a better stronger SE ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Monday is the unofficial end for big snow on the coast season. Obviously it can snow into April but the odds strongly diminish after next week. The sun will start to become an issue as well. With temps in the 50’s and 60’s we may start to see some blooming/budding in places. Someone should start a thread for the Thursday night wind event. LLJ is 60+ Kt’s with no inversion. Numerous gusts 50+ mph looks likely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: 7 currently; single digit lows keep piling up. KFOK @ 0°..I'm @ 10°..brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Thursday night into Friday will be our next cutter with 60°+ temperatures and wind gust potential near 60 mph in the usual windier spots. Then we cool down again with more 60° potential ahead of another storm next week. So a continuation of the big weather swings pattern with the warmer days more impressive than the cold. This allows the temperatures to average out warmer than normal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 7 for the low. Must be close to double digits with times below 10 this season if not already there. I'll have to check Somerville's stats. Edit: looks like 10x in Somerville, not bad. 4 total last winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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