February 2022

[nyrangers1022]

I hate the cold.  Cant do anything.  Im not a snowboarder or skiier.  I used to enjoy pond hockey, but now it's too cold and destroys your expensive skates.  Give me warm weather to grill, golf, chill outside with a beer or 4, walk the dog.   Its very boring in the winter

[Cfa]

10 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

But I absolutely loathe torching in Jan or Feb (Dec I suppose I’m already used to) so this month is painful for me. All it does is remind me of where things are heading with current AGW, and it reminds me how our area is one of the fastest warming places in winter in the country. Tough to appreciate nice days when I think about what it represents. 

Maybe it’s the longer days and slightly stronger sunshine but Feb torches feel much more appropriate than Dec torches to me (though I welcome both with open arms). Being on the coast we are sort of an outlier with Dec being the warmest winter month as opposed to Feb, it’s normally the opposite. 

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Join the winning team. 

Not yet

I still love snow 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

^I think any change would come after mid-March just in time to ruin the end of March and April. Would not be at all surprised to see -NAO blocking develop in late March and go into April…..

Is that supposed to be shocking? 

[Volcanic Winter]

5 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Maybe it’s the longer days and slightly stronger sunshine but Feb torches feel much more appropriate than Dec torches to me (though I welcome both with open arms). Being on the coast we are sort of an outlier with Dec being the warmest winter month as opposed to Feb, it’s normally the opposite. 

Fair, everyone feels differently as has their own personal preferences. 
 

I should be living somewhere colder. I hate heat and humidity and prefer hiking in snow to hiking in green, flowers, and pollen. 

[mattinpa]

25 minutes ago, matt8204 said:

Same here.  The cold definitely bothers me more now than it did when I was a kid...and this comes from someone who could spend hours outside in the dead of winter playing pond hockey.  I don't know if I could do it now.  

I’ve always hated the heat, but I am in my 40s now so yes extended cold isn’t my favorite if without snow.

[winterwx21]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not yet

I still love snow 

With weather it's great to have variety. Snow is my favorite, but I wouldn't want it all year round. All of the seasons have good things to offer. I enjoy all of them.

[HeadInTheClouds]

20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

With weather it's great to have variety. Snow is my favorite, but I wouldn't want it all year round. All of the seasons have good things to offer. I enjoy all of them.

I like summer, winter, and fall. I hate spring, especially early spring. Snow melting, brown, and mud. Yuck. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Its too cold outside

 

I use to love this but I'm starting to hate it except when it snows.

It feels even colder today since it was 62° on Saturday. These big temperature swings are becoming more common. The 46° drop at ISP is the 2nd greatest on record for a 2 day period in February.

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=ISP&hours=42&month=feb&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

 

[matt8204]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It feels even colder today since it was 62° on Saturday. These big temperature swings are becoming more common. The 46° drop at ISP is the 2nd greatest on record for a 2 day period in February.
 

 

The warmth seemed to peak early on Saturday also.  Felt great in the morning but by mid-afternoon, it was noticeably cooler and there was a breeze kicking up.

[FPizz]

It also feels cold today because it IS COLD.  23 degrees with 30 mph winds is cold no matter when it occurs, 2 days after a 60 degree day or after a 32 degree day.  

[JustinRP37]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Its too cold outside

 

I use to love this but I'm starting to hate it except when it snows.

https://www.mohawkmtn.com/the-mountain/webcam/ It is snowing a blizzard today at our local mountains!

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Local water temps are now in the 30s for the first time in a couple years. 38 at the Ny harbor buoy. We would be primed if we had a better pattern incoming.

[SnoSki14]

GEFS not as terrible very last couple days this month into March. 

[brooklynwx99]

the pattern showing up in the LR is actually a bit deceiving...

this does look like a "torch" at first glance, but there's actually a ton of cold air in SE Canada, and the TPV S of Greenland provides confluence. so, even though there's a SE ridge, there would more than likely be a pretty stout cold press with lots of HP over the top

March 2015 is a pretty similar analog to this type of gradient pattern. NOT saying that we're getting a month this anomalous, but the NAO was extremely positive and there was considerable SE ridging. however, we all remember how the TPV parked S of Greenland provided significant confluence and kept areas N of DC colder than average thanks to the Pacific help. so, just because you see a SE ridge and +NAO doesn't mean you torch if the TPV is in a favorable location for providing confluence

so, if this pattern was to verify (I have no reason to believe it's outlandish), then we would see an active overrunning pattern with lots of chances to open the month. let's hope the guidance holds on this March '15-esque look

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the pattern showing up in the LR is actually a bit deceiving...

this does look like a "torch" at first glance, but there's actually a ton of cold air in SE Canada, and the TPV S of Greenland provides confluence. so, even though there's a SE ridge, there would more than likely be a pretty stout cold press with lots of HP over the top

March 2015 is a pretty similar analog to this type of gradient pattern. NOT saying that we're getting a month this anomalous, but the NAO was extremely positive and there was considerable SE ridging. however, we all remember how the TPV parked S of Greenland provided significant confluence and kept areas N of DC colder than average thanks to the Pacific help. so, just because you see a SE ridge and +NAO doesn't mean you torch if the TPV is in a favorable location for providing confluence

so, if this pattern was to verify (I have no reason to believe it's outlandish), then we would see an active overrunning pattern with lots of chances to open the month. let's hope the guidance holds on this March '15-esque look

The GEFS is remarkably similar to 2015. 

My second favorite March with 4 3 to 6 inch events totaling 20 inches.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

It also feels cold today because it IS COLD.  23 degrees with 30 mph winds is cold no matter when it occurs, 2 days after a 60 degree day or after a 32 degree day.  

Idk the true stats, but today feels like the coldest day of the season so far 

[EastonSN+]

Wonder what MJO phase this was courtesy of AM

 

[Volcanic Winter]

Here’s my professional forecast:

We’re gonna get some cold, then some warmth, then some colder warmth and warmer cold. We’ll get a bit of rain, a windy day or two, and possibly a couple flakes. Eventually it’ll get warmer and then sunnier and more rain and wind, less flakes as the months move on. 
 

Beat that forecast, hotshots!

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

GEFS not as terrible very last couple days this month into March. 

[mikem81]

Good look for Feb 28-March 14. Will believe it when I see it

[mikem81]

For now, seems like we should all go to Miami for 2 weeks

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies are faster with the MJO. We go through the warm phases in late February. So the MJO goes into phase 7 during the first week of March. This allows the SE Ridge to flatten out with colder departures for us and a +PNA -EPO.
 

Feb 21-28

 

 

Feb 28 Mar 7

 

 

VP anomalies 

 

 

Big question here….are the weeklies rushing/progressing the MJO too fast yet again…..just like they did in January when they kept torching early-mid February? My guess is yes they are too quick and the change doesn’t happen until mid-late March, like what just occurred this month. I think a change does happen but not that fast…..

[psv88]

Still have blowing snow out here. Beautiful

[wdrag]

45 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still have blowing snow out here. Beautiful

ditto drifting snow here in nw NJ from exposed ridges (farms).

[Rtd208]

 

[wdrag]

Think it's time for a March thread, whomever wants to start it. I agree with all others on here: no snow here til about March 1.

EPS 14th version is trending cooler as periodic ridging embraces AK and the W coast, which means as Bluewave and one other very recently said,  gradient action and I think a good chance much closer to normal than what we will experience 1/21-28 (the torch everyone was talking about 1-2 weeks ago).

I'm in the camp for hope and my own expectation of one or two decent large scale northeast USA snow-ice storm events the first 2-3 weeks of March.  That based on both ensembles beyond 300 hours trending a more favorable pattern for dumping high pressure and cooler air into the northern USA (ridging w coast into w Canada or AK.

I do want to point out large changes in the EPS weeklies and prefer not to put much stock in them beyond 2 weeks at most. That means the low chance stratwarm in March while on the table (only for own inexperienced self) is not what I base my hopes upon.

Take a look at the 850 MB 5 day average temps in the sample ending Feb 28, and March 7th. Click on the graphics for greater clarity.  The first of each pair is from the 14th, the second from the 10th.  Even next week, it looks like the big positive 850MB anomaly will be centered over the Virginias instead of the upper Midwest.  Maybe that will trend even faster to the southeast?

Just gives me pause to look much beyond 11-14 days.  So I have hope that we're trending more favorably for a last gasp attempt at spreading near normal snowfall for other parts of our area. Boston and ACY well above normal, BDL and nw NJ well below, NYC keeping pace just under normal.   

[uncle W]

Newark is running below average 32 degrees or lower minimum days...46 as of today...record low is 53 set in 2011-12...second lowest amount for Dec didn't help...

Year..........Oct...Nov...Dec.....Jan.....Feb....Mar.....Apr...Tot...

2021-22.....0........2........6.......28........12...........................46..........as of 2/14...

2020-21.....1.........2.......19.......25.......21.......12.........2......82

2019-20.....0.......11.......19........18.......13.........3.........1.......65

2018-19.....0.........9.......17.......25.......21.......16..........1.......89

2017-18.....0.........8.......21.......24.......13.......18.........4.......88

2016-17.....0.........1........18........13.......18.......16.........0.......66

2015-16.....1.........4.........0........27.......17.........6.........5.......60

2014-15.....0.......12.......12........28......28.......19.........0.......99

2013-14.....0.......12.......21........27.......25.......19.........1......105

2012-13.....0.........6.......14........21.......23.......15.........3.......82

2011-12.....1..........1........14........17........15..........5.........0.......53

2010-11.....0.........3.......27........28.......21........12.........0.......96

 

2009-10.....0.........1.......20.......25.......24.........2.........0.......72

2008-09.....0.......12.......20.......30.......23.......13.........0.......98

2007-08.....0.........3.......17........22.......21........14.........0.......77

2006-07.....0.........2.......12........19........27........12.........5.......77

2005-06.....0.........6.......24.......15........20.......14.........0.......79

2004-05.....0.........4.......17........20.......23.......19..........0.......83

2003-04.....0.........2.......22.......27.......26........11..........3.......91

2002-03.....0.........4.......22.......29.......23.......14..........3.......95

2001-02.....0.........4........11........15........16........11...........2.......59

2000-01.....0..........7.......28.......25.......19.........13..........0.......92

 

1999-00.....0.........3.......16........23.......21..........4..........1........68

1998-99.....0.........3.......14........22.......15.........11..........0.......65

1997-98.....1.........10.......18........14.......12.........12..........0.......67

1996-97.....0........15.......13........26.......16.........16..........2.......88

1995-96.....0.......16.......28.......28........18.........17..........0......107

1994-95.....0.........5.......13.......19........24..........6..........3.......70

1993-94.....0.........4.......15.......28.......25.........12..........0.......84

1992-93.....0.........5.......14.......20.......24.........15..........0.......78

1991-92.....0.........5.......18........19.......19..........17..........2.......80

1990-91.....0.........2.......13.......23.......16..........10.........0.......64

 

1989-90.....0.........9.......31.......17........16..........11..........1.......85

1988-89.....1..........2.......24.......19.......22........15..........0.......83

1987-88.....0.........5........15.......24.......24.......13..........0.......81

1986-87.....0.........6........16.......25.......28.......14...........1.......90

1985-86.....0.........0.......23.......25.......23.......12..........0.......83

1984-85.....0.........9.......14.......29.......21........13..........1.......87

1983-84.....0.........2.......18.......27........12........15..........0.......74

1982-83.....1..........9.......12.......20........19.........7..........0.......68

1981-82.....1..........6.......22.......28.......19........10..........7.......93

1980-81.....0........10.......24.......29.......16........16..........1.......96

 

1979-80.....0.........2.......15........25.......24.......14.........3.......83

1978-79.....0.........4.......19........20.......22.........9.........1.......75

1977-78.....0.........7.......23.......28.......28........13.........1.....100

1976-77.....3........17.......27.......31........19...........8........3.....108

1975-76.....2..........1.......21.......29.......16.........13........2.......84

1974-75.....3.........8.......16........18.......17.........16.........9.......87

1973-74.....0.........2.......16........19.......25........11.........1.......74

1972-73.....1..........9........9........18.......19..........2........0.......58

1971-72.....0.........5.......11........21........25........16........4.......82

1970-71.....0.........4.......20.......28.......15.........10........0.......77

 

1969-70.....2.........9.......26.......30.......24.......14........2.....107

1968-69.....0.........2.......27.......23.......23.......20........1.......96

1967-68.....0........12.......15.......25.......25.......12.........1.......90

1966-67......1..........5.......21.......20.......25.......16.........1.......89

1965-66.....2.........7........18.......24.......21........13.........1.......85

1964-65.....0.........5.......19.......28.......22........12.........1.......87

1963-64.....0.........3.......27.......20.......26........13........4.......93

1962-63......1.........3.......23.......25.......26.......12.........1.......91

1961-62......0.........6.......23.......27.......23.......12.........1.......92

1960-61......0.........4.......28.......28.......15.......12.........0.......87

 

1959-60.....0.........7........18.......24.......24.......25.........1.......99

1958-59.....0.........5.......27.......25.......24.......18.........0.......89

1957-58.....0.........6........16.......24.......23.........9.........1.......79

1956-57.....0........12........14.......29.......22.......10.........3.......90

1955-56.....0.........8........27.......27.......19.......20.........3.....104

[L.I.Pete]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

Still have blowing snow out here. Beautiful

One of my favorite snowfalls in some time. Long duration and really pretty.

[bluewave]

Today is the 6th anniversary of the first NYC below 0° day since 1994. Only in our post 2010 climate could NYC drop below 0° in February following a +13.3° December. Then we had one of our recent temperature swings to 54° two days later followed 60s on February 20th.