February 2022

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I thought phase 5 is cold for March

You are using the wrong composites. Shocker

[EastonSN+]

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

March will come down to how fast the MJO makes it out of the warmer phases. The current guidance has a classic La Niña MJO phase 5 pattern in late February. This is a warmer flat +PNA ridge linking up with the SE ridge. Plus the SPV is near record levels keeping the +AO more positive than the typical MJO composite. The colder MJO phases during a La Niña March start out in phase 7.  

 

 

I wonder if this is what the models are picking up on in mid March. Looking at the speed of the wave below should be 7 by 10th or so.

[snowman19]

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I wonder if this is what the models are picking up on in mid March. Looking at the speed of the wave below should be 7 by 10th or so.

And if that’s correct….big IF….it’s mid-March at that point, you will be fighting a September sun angle (August sun angle by the end of the month), climo and length of day. What are you hoping to achieve at that point? Mid-late March “cold” is way different than Dec, Jan, Feb cold. Maybe a very anomalous, late season fluke snow event that will melt the very next day? Not sure why you think that look would be a win south of New England at that point in time….

[nycwinter]

i was listening to the radio before on 1010 wins and one of their accuweather meteorologists mentioned that one of the reasons even though it was snowing that the streets were wet was because of the higher sun angle i was shocked when he said that...

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

And if that’s correct….big IF….it’s mid-March at that point, you will be fighting a September sun angle (August sun angle by the end of the month), climo and length of day. What are you hoping to achieve at that point? Mid-late March “cold” is way different than Dec, Jan, Feb cold. Maybe a very anomalous, late season fluke snow event that will melt the very next day? Not sure why you think that look would be a win south of New England at that point in time….

Most of us just want to have a snow day, have you ever been to the city or even urbanized long island or NJ?  "snowcover" means nothing to anyone who lives here, the stuff is dirty by the next day and slushy and just EW.  There have been plenty of snow events between March 20th and April 10th, as a matter of fact, our latest accumulating snowfall is usually somewhere in that time period.  Probably no 10" storms, but there is no reason a 6" storm can't happen in that time frame, maybe even two.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

i was listening to the radio before on 1010 wins and one of their accuweather meteorologists mentioned that one of the reasons even though it was snowing that the streets were wet was because of the higher sun angle i was shocked when he said that...

it also has to do with how well concrete absorbs and stores heat.

 

[donsutherland1]

On the heels of near record and record warmth, a storm brought a light to moderate snowfall to the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. Accumulations included:

Allentown: 5.1"
Boston: 3.1"
Bridgeport: 2.8"
Hartford: 1.9"
Islip: 2.0"
New York City-Central Park: 1.6"
New York City-JFK: 2.2"
New York City-LGA: 2.3"
Newark: 1.9"
Philadelphia: 0.4"
Providence: 2.8"

In the wake of the snowfall, tomorrow and Tuesday will be fair but unseasonably cold. Afterward, milder air will pour into the region setting the stage for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures. Thursday and Friday are two such potential days. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March.

Out west, Los Angeles recorded its 5th consecutive 80° day. That broke the February record of 4 consecutive days, which was set during February 22-25, 1954 and tied during February 11-15, 2015 and February 7-10, 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was -0.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.609.

On February 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.208 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.159 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal).

 

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

And if that’s correct….big IF….it’s mid-March at that point, you will be fighting a September sun angle (August sun angle by the end of the month), climo and length of day. What are you hoping to achieve at that point? Mid-late March “cold” is way different than Dec, Jan, Feb cold. Maybe a very anomalous, late season fluke snow event that will melt the very next day? Not sure why you think that look would be a win south of New England at that point in time….

Biggest troll ever

Pretty sad

[LibertyBell]

17 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

On the heels of near record and record warmth, a storm brought a light to moderate snowfall to the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions today. Accumulations included:

Allentown: 5.1"
Boston: 3.1"
Bridgeport: 2.8"
Hartford: 1.9"
Islip: 2.0"
New York City-Central Park: 1.6"
New York City-JFK: 2.2"
New York City-LGA: 2.3"
Newark: 1.9"
Philadelphia: 0.4"
Providence: 2.8"

In the wake of the snowfall, tomorrow and Tuesday will be fair but unseasonably cold. Afterward, milder air will pour into the region setting the stage for a warmer than normal second half of February. The potential exists for several days to see much above normal temperatures. Thursday and Friday are two such potential days. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March.

Out west, Los Angeles recorded its 5th consecutive 80° day. That broke the February record of 4 consecutive days, which was set during February 22-25, 1954 and tied during February 11-15, 2015 and February 7-10, 2016.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was -0.19 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.609.

On February 11 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.208 (RMM). The February 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.159 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal).

 

This was supposed to be an offshore storm-- turns out Allentown had the most from that list and my home in the Poconos had close to 7 inches lol.

Still snowing here and 4 inches of snow, might end up around 4.5

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 28F here with a real feel of 16F. Total of 2.5'' of snow on OTG here. Should be a distant memory by Weds, with temps progged to be near 50.

[Rjay]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

And if that’s correct….big IF….it’s mid-March at that point, you will be fighting a September sun angle (August sun angle by the end of the month), climo and length of day. What are you hoping to achieve at that point? Mid-late March “cold” is way different than Dec, Jan, Feb cold. Maybe a very anomalous, late season fluke snow event that will melt the very next day? Not sure why you think that look would be a win south of New England at that point in time….

A couple things:

1. Who cares what they want. 

2. You're like the winter grinch.  It gets weird sometimes.  This is one of those times.  

3.  I remember a winter recently where you laughed at March snow and then parts of the area received over 40".  It can and will snow in March for the foreseeable future.  

4.  This is a weather forum. People will discuss weather.  This is why I'm a big supporter of you in general.  You have the right to discuss your warm fantasies about be covered in sweat, having the swampiest of swamp-ass in the middle of February while Metsfan or maybe Pamela fan you and feed you grapes.

[dmillz25]

6 minutes ago, Rjay said:

A couple things:

1. Who cares what they want. 

2. You're like the winter grinch.  It gets weird sometimes.  This is one of those times.  

3.  I remember a winter recently where you laughed at March snow and then parts of the area received over 40".  It can and will snow in March for the foreseeable future.  

4.  This is a weather forum. People will discuss weather.  This is why I'm a big supporter of you in general.  You have the right to discuss your warm fantasies about be covered in sweat, having the swampiest of swamp-ass in the middle of February while Metsfan or maybe Pamela fan you and feed you grapes.

To me I understand if you like the warm or whatever the problem is that he tries to find every single thing wrong with anything that has to do with snow. It could be a slam dunk blizzard with nothing wrong and he’ll find something to go against. It does get annoying honestly and that also said for the snow weenies as well. The dude knows his stuff can’t knock that about him

[bluewave]

5 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed. What's odd is I feel like March has been very snowy last 12 years as compared to December. Odd as temps have risen. 

Conscious that some parts of the southern southwestern sub forum may argue otherwise.

Yeah, March has been warmer and snowier than December over the last 10 years. 
 

Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Season
Mean	38.9	32.6	33.9	40.3	36.4
2020-2021	37.2	32.9	32.2	42.4	36.2
2019-2020	36.8	37.3	38.2	44.8	39.3
2018-2019	38.1	31.1	34.4	38.7	35.6
2017-2018	33.8	30.1	39.1	38.0	35.3
2016-2017	36.6	36.2	37.8	37.1	36.9
2015-2016	48.4	33.3	35.7	45.5	40.7
2014-2015	39.6	28.7	21.6	35.2	31.3
2013-2014	37.1	27.7	29.7	35.8	32.6
2012-2013	40.5	33.1	32.1	38.3	36.0
2011-2012	40.5	36.2	38.1	47.3	40.5

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Season
Mean	3.0	12.8	12.8	7.9	36.5
2020-2021	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	33.5
2019-2020	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	6.7
2018-2019	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	8.5
2017-2018	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	61.3
2016-2017	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	39.3
2015-2016	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	41.2
2014-2015	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	63.7
2013-2014	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	63.2
2012-2013	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	42.7
2011-2012	T	3.8	0.6	T	4.4

[Byrdhousebv]

30 minutes ago, Rjay said:

A couple things:

1. Who cares what they want. 

2. You're like the winter grinch.  It gets weird sometimes.  This is one of those times.  

3.  I remember a winter recently where you laughed at March snow and then parts of the area received over 40".  It can and will snow in March for the foreseeable future.  

4.  This is a weather forum. People will discuss weather.  This is why I'm a big supporter of you in general.  You have the right to discuss your warm fantasies about be covered in sweat, having the swampiest of swamp-ass in the middle of February while Metsfan or maybe Pamela fan you and feed you grapes.

Its sad, that someone can not simply enjoy the little events we receive, and that most embrace, with a smile and some proportion of joy for the moment.

[CIK62]

YOU KNOW ITS BAD WHEN THE MOST EXCITING UPCOMING WINTER EVENT IS A POSSIBLE  HIGH WIND  WARNING  ON FRIDAY.       THAT COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR.       WE WANT A BLIZZARD!

 

 

 

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

To me I understand if you like the warm or whatever the problem is that he tries to find every single thing wrong with anything that has to do with snow. It could be a slam dunk blizzard with nothing wrong and he’ll find something to go against. It does get annoying honestly and that also said for the snow weenies as well. The dude knows his stuff can’t knock that about him

It would be different if he actually would be here and enjoy the snow events, but I don’t remember a time he did. It’s just warm/no or less snow posts up to the event.

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

To me I understand if you like the warm or whatever the problem is that he tries to find every single thing wrong with anything that has to do with snow. It could be a slam dunk blizzard with nothing wrong and he’ll find something to go against. It does get annoying honestly and that also said for the snow weenies as well. The dude knows his stuff can’t knock that about him

For a guy that you said supposedly knows his stuff he is wrong an awful lot. He has downplayed every single winter event this year and has been wrong nearly every time. He said warm weather was right around the corner in early January and it wound up being a very cold month. I can say the weather will turn warmer in the spring and Christmas is eventually coming too. He brings nothing to the table and has zero credibility when we all know he has an agenda. Worst poster on the board AINEC. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, CIK62 said:

YOU KNOW ITS BAD WHEN THE MOST EXCITING UPCOMING WINTER EVENT IS A POSSIBLE  HIGH WIND  WARNING  ON FRIDAY.       THAT COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR.       WE WANT A BLIZZARD!

 

 

 

Considering the rest of Feb looks like hot garbage I'll take any severe weather event

[psv88]

We always get snow in March. 

[JerseyWx]

Exactly 15 inches so far this season.  After the Thursday washout, we really only have about 4 weeks of good snow climo, as that brings us near the equinox.

Obviously it can snow afterwards, but even our better March's tend to shut off around then.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, psv88 said:

We always get snow in March. 

March > December 

[George001]

I don’t get the whole mid March is too late, climo sucks ect. I got a massive 2 foot blizzard in mid March 2018, which was just a few years ago…. Yeah temps are often an issue, but with March storms you also often will have more moisture available so it’s kind of a double edged sword there. If the setup is good, some of the biggest storms happen in March.

[JerseyWx]

1 hour ago, George001 said:

I don’t get the whole mid March is too late, climo sucks ect. I got a massive 2 foot blizzard in mid March 2018, which was just a few years ago…. Yeah temps are often an issue, but with March storms you also often will have more moisture available so it’s kind of a double edged sword there. If the setup is good, some of the biggest storms happen in March.

Unless you're somewhere else, the metro got that big storm on March 7-8th, not mid-month.

I also don't think anyone is claiming it can't snow in mid-March.  We can get a 6+ inch storm in April for that matter. 

Point is, after the equinox in just over a month, the chances of accumulating snow are drastically reduced.  Between now and then is when we'd need to boost totals to average or better to make this a decent season.

[StormchaserChuck!]

8 hours ago, CIK62 said:

YOU KNOW ITS BAD WHEN THE MOST EXCITING UPCOMING WINTER EVENT IS A POSSIBLE  HIGH WIND  WARNING  ON FRIDAY.       THAT COULD HAPPEN AT ANY TIME OF THE YEAR.       WE WANT A BLIZZARD!

 

 

 

I thought that was temps.

[Rtd208]

Upton for late week.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main focus in the extended is on the Thu into Fri storm.
The modeling has been very consistent, keeping the main low an
inside runner with mainly wind and rain impacts to the fcst
area.

Per the latest data, the sys approaches Thu, peaks Thu ngt,
with the associated cold front clearing the area early Fri. A
powerful lljet looks to produce a significant wind threat for
the area. The GFS has 90kt at h925 just 15 miles s of Fire
Island at 6Z Fri. Coastal CT and LI will have the highest wind
risk, but anywhere in the cwa will be capable of reaching at
least advy criteria in this setup. The wind threat will be
highlighted in the hwo.

Rain will be the main pcpn type with the sys with temps in the
50s and 60s on Thu. Still in the warm sector Thu ngt, then
falling temps behind the front on Fri.

Deep lift noted in the model time heights, so some isold tstms
cannot be ruled out.

Rainfall of less than an inch is modeled, although locally hvy
rainfall rates are likely at times due to the convective nature of
the pcpn and a moisture tap from the GOMEX.

Temps drop back to seasonal late Fri thru the weekend with dry wx
expected attm.

&&

[Rtd208]

Very cold morning out there,

Current temp 16

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cold. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 20s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 26°

Newark: 27°

Philadelphia: 31°

After another cold day tomorrow, much warmer weather will return to the region, as a sustained warmer than normal pattern develops.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 42.0°; 15-Year: 41.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.7°; 15-Year: 42.8°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 44.0°; 15-Year: 43.8°

[the_other_guy]

13F in Hastings

 

Happy Valentines Day! 

[White Gorilla]

10 hours ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

For a guy that you said supposedly knows his stuff he is wrong an awful lot. He has downplayed every single winter event this year and has been wrong nearly every time. He said warm weather was right around the corner in early January and it wound up being a very cold month. I can say the weather will turn warmer in the spring and Christmas is eventually coming too. He brings nothing to the table and has zero credibility when we all know he has an agenda. Worst poster on the board AINEC. 

Classic troll.  He's post limited and for good reason.  Now, back to the weather.... 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(29/45) or +2.

Month to date is  36.0[+2.8].      Should be 36.4[+2.5] by the 22nd.

Reached 44 yesterday back at midnight.     31-35 during the PM.

18*(48%RH) here at 6am.{was 26 at midnight}    17* at 7am.       22* at Noon.      Reached 27* at 4:30pm.    25* at 6pm.      22* at 10pm.