bluewave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Add to that the rapid temperature reversals. 60s into teens back into 60s over a few days. Yeah, more spring in the Rockies with 60s to snow tomorrow. Then our next warm up later in the week. Models have near record February high pressure to our east. So we could get some impressive winds and low topped convection ahead of the storm system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 44 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 1997-1998 We had close to zero snow and then got that surprise 5"er on the equinox lol. Yeah, the year I opened my ski shop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, more spring in the Rockies with 60s to snow tomorrow. Then our next warm up later in the week. Models have near record February high pressure to our east. So we could get some impressive winds and low topped convection ahead of the storm system. Looks like it'll get cold again next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Now down to 45 here, after topping out at 61 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Now down to 45 here, after topping out at 61 today. All I can say is, it had better be in the 30s here by midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, more spring in the Rockies with 60s to snow tomorrow. Then our next warm up later in the week. Models have near record February high pressure to our east. So we could get some impressive winds and low topped convection ahead of the storm system. That cutter looks like a beast. Getting more intense on the models. Winds will easily mix in that environment 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: All I can say is, it had better be in the 30s here by midnight. with a dew point in the low 20's I wouldn't worry to much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 the 1956-57 analog had almost an inch of snow on 2/13...it really warmed up near the end of the month...Feb 28 was colder and it snowed 2-3" on March 1st...the second half of this February looks even warmer than Feb 57...After tomorrow we might not see any snow until March if then...if NYC gets 1.5" tomorrow the seasonal total would reach 17"...just about what was recorded up to Feb 13 in 1957... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Topped out at 63 here. I missed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 One last gasp of winter in March when the MJO goes through 5? 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly cloudy with light to perhaps moderate snow. A general 1”-3” with some locally higher amounts is likely. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 34° Newark: 35° Philadelphia: 37° Tomorrow and Tuesday will be cold days. Warmer weather will develop afterward. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.8°; 15-Year: 41.8° Newark: 30-Year: 42.5°; 15-Year: 42.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.8°; 15-Year: 43.6° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(30/44) or +2. Month to date is 38.1[+3.7]. Should be 36.9[+3.0] by the 21st. WINTER TO DATE: 74 Days>> +1.2 Storm on Friday to our nw.(Montreal)(980mb), in combination with a 1044mb. high in the mid-Atlantic-----will give us high winds++, from the south that day. Reached 60 here yesterday. Today: 35 to 32 till 3pm with wet snow, 2"?, wind n., clearing by tomorrow AM and down to 21. 35*(82%RH) here at 6am,{was 44*at midnight} wet snow---cartops white, streets just wet. Finally 32* at 4:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 No Mar thread yet, so I am posting this here. Some encouraging signs for early to mid-March. Supported by MJO composites (note: I don't rely on MJO phase forecast charts, but instead use pattern recognition vs. MJO VP composites) and also analogs with strong SPV, +NAO, and La Nina. 13 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 48 minutes ago, jconsor said: No Mar thread yet, so I am posting this here. Some encouraging signs for early to mid-March. Supported by MJO analogs (note: I don't rely on MJO phase forecast charts, but instead use pattern recognition vs. MJO VP composites) and also many analogs with strong SPV, +NAO, and La Nina. March is such a volatile month due to seasonal changes. If we can get any infusion of cold air there will be a very good chance for storminess. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Borrowed from MA forum. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 March is such a volatile month due to seasonal changes. If we can get any infusion of cold air there will be a very good chance for storminess.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: March is such a volatile month due to seasonal changes. If we can get any infusion of cold air there will be a very good chance for storminess. The March volatility has moved up in time to DJF. Now we regularly get 60s and snow close together in the winter. It used to mostly be the domain of March in the old days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Currently cloudy here with the temp @31F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: The March volatility has moved up in time to DJF. Now we regularly get 60s and snow close together in the winter. It used to mostly be the domain of March in the old days. Agreed. What's odd is I feel like March has been very snowy last 12 years as compared to December. Odd as temps have risen. Conscious that some parts of the southern southwestern sub forum may argue otherwise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 16 hours ago, uncle W said: the 1956-57 analog had almost an inch of snow on 2/13...it really warmed up near the end of the month...Feb 28 was colder and it snowed 2-3" on March 1st...the second half of this February looks even warmer than Feb 57...After tomorrow we might not see any snow until March if then...if NYC gets 1.5" tomorrow the seasonal total would reach 17"...just about what was recorded up to Feb 13 in 1957... How much snow in March/April 1957? I think it was 1956 that had snow in late March and April? Looks like NYC has reached 17" on the season around the same time as that year-- what did they finish with in 1956-57? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed. What's odd is I feel like March has been very snowy last 12 years as compared to December. Odd as temps have risen. Conscious that some parts of the southern southwestern sub forum may argue otherwise. We might be kissing December as a winter month goodbye, it's the fastest warming month of the year. Snow sticks around much longer in December, so we're going to lose that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Borrowed from MA forum. Is that the polar vortex making a visit to our region? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 5 hours ago, jconsor said: No Mar thread yet, so I am posting this here. Some encouraging signs for early to mid-March. Supported by MJO composites (note: I don't rely on MJO phase forecast charts, but instead use pattern recognition vs. MJO VP composites) and also analogs with strong SPV, +NAO, and La Nina. So the warmth looks to be transient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 9 hours ago, MJO812 said: One last gasp of winter in March when the MJO goes through 5? Looks like the warmth might be transient as we have more chances early-mid March with the PV coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Is that the polar vortex making a visit to our region? It will all come down to the EPO. If we can get what that shows then we will at least have cold. We will NEED a stronger SE ridge to avoid suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: It will all come down to the EPO. If we can get what that shows then we will at least have cold. We will NEED a stronger SE ridge to avoid suppression. Yep, because we all remember March 2014 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yep, because we all remember March 2014 That was terrible. Had 58 inches and thought had a shot at my seasonal record of 92 inches in 96. Three snowstorms lined up in March with the first one pegged for 16 inches. All three storms shoved south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That was terrible. Had 58 inches and thought had a shot at my seasonal record of 92 inches in 96. Three snowstorms lined up in March with the first one pegged for 16 inches. All three storms shoved south. If only we could've gotten in March 2014 what we got in March 2015 (or March/April 2018)..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Borrowed from MA forum. Posting a CFS run for March 15th on February 13th? Really? If I did this I’d be nailed to the cross. This is banter 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: March will come down to how fast the MJO makes it out of the warmer phases. The current guidance has a classic La Niña MJO phase 5 pattern in late February. This is a warmer flat +PNA ridge linking up with the SE ridge. Plus the SPV is near record levels keeping the +AO more positive than the typical MJO composite. The colder MJO phases during a La Niña March start out in phase 7. I thought phase 5 is cold for March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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