SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I would watch next Saturday...that boundary behind the cutter I do not feel will press as far down across the SE US or off the MA coast as currently modeled...the SER will probably flex more...something could possibly try to ride up the boundary behind the cutter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Strong wind event with that cutter. Winds should easily mix down with temps possibly as high as mid to even upper 60s ahead of the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Strong wind event with that cutter. Winds should easily mix down with temps possibly as high as mid to even upper 60s ahead of the front. This is what I like about the period from mid February thru the end of March. You can get some intense storms and good wind and precipitation events. We have had some of our strongest storms during this time period as the pattern begins to shift from winter to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 60F here as of noon, gorgeous out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 The current record high of 61° at ISP beat the old daily record of 55° by a wide margin. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?sid=KISP&table=1&num=168&banner=off Islip Area, NYVersion: 16.3 (created 2022-01-24)Period of record: 1963 through 2020 2/12 55 in 1984 54 in 2018 54 in 2009+ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 58 here, ready for spring! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Ahead of tomorrow’s light snow event, daily record high temperatures have already been set at Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, and New York City-JFK. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Continuation of our long term winter rising 60° day count with the 7th 60° day this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 62 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 60F over here and sunny. Feeling good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 60 now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Current temp is 58 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 55 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Continuation of our long term winter rising 60° day count with the 7th 60° day this winter. Add to that the rapid temperature reversals. 60s into teens back into 60s over a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: You do not want this. This type of extreme heat over a large metro area would be very bad. We've also warmed a lot since then so heat on that level could rival the heat we saw in Pacific NW or 110+ temperatures. well basically it's just a repeat of July 2010 or July 2011. I dont believe we had a lot of humidity in either heatwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Good article about March. Did not realize it was 70 before the 1888 blizzard. https://www.connecticutmag.com/the-connecticut-story/this-is-why-big-snowstorms-happen-in-march/article_48f78008-26cc-11e8-8dd9-f3671cb1fac7.html The one and only time we had a twenty inch snowstorm after February and that storm was undermeasured (probably by a lot.) The other one I want to know about is the April snowstorm that dropped almost 20 inches in Philly- that shows the potential is there for that to happen here too. And that one happened more recently than 1888 lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Ahead of tomorrow’s light snow event, daily record high temperatures have already been set at Bridgeport, Islip, New Haven, and New York City-JFK. all over 60 Don? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I would watch next Saturday...that boundary behind the cutter I do not feel will press as far down across the SE US or off the MA coast as currently modeled...the SER will probably flex more...something could possibly try to ride up the boundary behind the cutter are we supposed to get colder by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: The one and only time we had a twenty inch snowstorm after February and that storm was undermeasured (probably by a lot.) The other one I want to know about is the April snowstorm that dropped almost 20 inches in Philly- that shows the potential is there for that to happen here too. And that one happened more recently than 1888 lol. Yeah had a few foot plus but that was the only 20 that I know of 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 54 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: all over 60 Don? No. New Haven did not reach 60. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just now, donsutherland1 said: No. New Haven did not reach 60. ah but JFK did? First 60 in a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Ahead of a coming light snow event, temperatures soared to near record and record highs in parts of the region. Daily records included: Atlantic City: 64° (tied record set in 2018) Boston: 60° (old record: 58°, 1984 and 1999) Bridgeport: 60° (old record: 54°, 2009 and 2018) Hartford: 59° (old record: 54°, 1984 and 1999) Islip: 62° (old record: 55°, 1984) New Haven: 58° (old record: 55°, 2018) New York City-JFK: 61° (old record: 58°, 1966 and 2018) Portland, ME: 54° (old record: 51°, 1984) Providence: 63° (old record: 61°, 1999) Out west, Los Angeles recorded its 4th consecutive 80° day. That ties the February record, which was set during February 22-25, 1954 and tied during February 11-15, 2015 and February 7-10, 2016. In the wake of the passage of a strong cold front, tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and sharply colder. A period of light snow is likely in parts of the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. A general 1"-3" of snow is likely across the region with some locally higher amounts. The second half of February will see a significant pattern change. Ridging will develop in the East. That pattern change will produce sustained above normal to occasionally much above normal readings after mid-month. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +4.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.381. On February 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.157 (RMM). The February 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.126 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: ah but JFK did? First 60 in a long time 61 at JFK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Ahead of a coming light snow event, temperatures soared to near record and record highs in parts of the region. Daily records included: Atlantic City: 64° (tied record set in 2018) Boston: 60° (old record: 58°, 1984 and 1999) Bridgeport: 60° (old record: 54°, 2009 and 2018) Hartford: 59° (old record: 54°, 1984 and 1999) Islip: 62° (old record: 55°, 1984) New Haven: 58° (old record: 55°, 2018) New York City-JFK: 61° (old record: 58°, 1966 and 2018) Portland, ME: 54° (old record: 51°, 1984) Providence: 63° (old record: 61°, 1999) Out west, Los Angeles recorded its 4th consecutive 80° day. That ties the February record, which was set during February 22-25, 1954 and tied during February 11-15, 2015 and February 7-10, 2016. In the wake of the passage of a strong cold front, tomorrow will be mostly cloudy and sharply colder. A period of light snow is likely in parts of the region tomorrow into tomorrow night. A general 1"-3" of snow is likely across the region with some locally higher amounts. The second half of February will see a significant pattern change. Ridging will develop in the East. That pattern change will produce sustained above normal to occasionally much above normal readings after mid-month. That warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +4.95 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.381. On February 10 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.157 (RMM). The February 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.126 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 75% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.9° (2.0° above normal). 2018 was the same year that it hit 80 in February? What day was that on, Don? I remember the mosquitoes and ticks and then the dramatic change to cold and stormy by March and continuing into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: 2018 was the same year that it hit 80 in February? What day was that on, Don? I remember the mosquitoes and ticks and then the dramatic change to cold and stormy by March and continuing into April. Yes. 2018 saw the historic warmth on 2/21. There was also an early April snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Finally a closer track but.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Yes. 2018 saw the historic warmth on 2/21. There was also an early April snowstorm. One of my favorite comebacks and favorite snowstorms. Rare to get 6" of snow in April. The last time that happened for Central Park was 1982. On the south shore we did get it in 2003 and east of year had more than that in 1996. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Finally a closer track but.... LOL thats awesome, I'll take the closer track, we all know this wont be rain lol. edit-- I thought this was for tomorrow, this is for 10 days from now? Why are we even thinking that far ahead when we aren't even sure what's going to happen tomorrow? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: LOL thats awesome, I'll take the closer track, we all know this wont be rain lol. One late 90s winter had perfect coastal tracks all winter but all rain due to absolutely no cold air. Thinking we had a strong neg NAO but EPO was strongly positive. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: One late 90s winter had perfect coastal tracks all winter but all rain due to absolutely no cold air. Thinking we had a strong neg NAO but EPO was strongly positive. 1997-1998 We had close to zero snow and then got that surprise 5"er on the equinox lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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