snowman19 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: Dr. Lee said this is NOT a SSWE being shown at mid-month. The models are actually keeping a very strong SPV into late March: 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Sea breeze today here on LI. Mid to upper 40s on the barrier islands but mid 50s here. Gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 30 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Dr. Lee said this is NOT a SSWE being shown at mid-month. The models are actually keeping a very strong SPV into late March: Who cares 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 55F here. Outstanding weather today. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 This extreme AO volatility from winter to winter is making seasonal forecasting even more challenging. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 53F here as of 4PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 9 hours ago, gravitylover said: You did it again. Just pointing out that what some troll wants will actually put the forum into a slumber for a few months. And guess what happened today, my allergies are back AND I saw my first mosquito. I guess it's time to start spraying for both weeds and mosquitoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Temperatures soared into the upper 50s and even lower 60s across the region today. The early spring fling will continue tomorrow, as temperatures again rise well into the 50s and perhaps lower 60s. The unseasonable warmth will be interrupted on Sunday. A strong cold front will result in sharply colder conditions for Sunday. This cold shot will be short-lived. However, while the cold air is in place, an offshore storm could bring a light snow to parts of the region on Sunday into Monday. There is consensus on the long range ensembles that the second half of February will likely experience a significant pattern change. Ridging will develop in the East. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal to occasionally much above normal readings after mid-month. The warmer pattern will likely prevail into the opening week of March. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +6.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.307. On February 9 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.122 (RMM). The February 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.063 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 73% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.8° (1.9° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gpsnavigator Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Interesting. It's still 42 degrees, and already, what melted off today is re-freezing. I did not expect to go out and slip on the ice, at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 56 in nyc at 2am 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 11 hours ago, jm1220 said: Sea breeze today here on LI. Mid to upper 40s on the barrier islands but mid 50s here. Gorgeous. It was close to 60 here I guess the barrier islands are a different world although only 2 miles from here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 10 hours ago, bluewave said: This extreme AO volatility from winter to winter is making seasonal forecasting even more challenging. Whats the cause of this? I imagine decades from now in a climate engineered future we'll be able to control extreme volatility like this (with ENSO too.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, Rjay said: 56 in nyc at 2am So you're saying the one mosquito I saw yesterday is going to be like 1000 today? That's it, I'm spraying later today. Yall might want to keep your masks on today lol. I envision multiple days this summer with lots of lows in the 80s and highs over 100. If we're going to be warm right now we might as well be super hot in the summer and set some records to remember. July 2010/2011 redux coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 40degs.(32/47) or +5. Month to date is 37.0[+2.7]. Should be 38.2[+3.7] by the 20th. WARNING SHOT AGAIN---The CFSv2 looks scary cold everywhere for the next 30 to 45 days. Texas gets the worst of it---so lucky for all it is not January being talked about. March 8-11 looked............{fill in} lol! Now B.t.R.: Reached 53 at midnight yesterday after just reaching 48 during the daylight. Today: 53-56 early, dropping late to 36 by tomorrow AM, cloudy with breaks. 53*(47%RH) here at 6am. 58* at 1pm. Fell back to 56* but was: 60* at 3pm. 48* at 9pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Currently 49 here, up 5 degrees since 4AM. High yesterday was 52F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 50F at 7am Brutal end to a mediocre winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: 50F at 7am Brutal end to a mediocre winter Winter is over on February 12? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Winter is over on February 12? Winter doesn't end, but snowfall can end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Yep it does look pretty warm to end Feb/begin March. Still can get wet snow/ice surprises embedded but it won't last long. Concerned about vast snowpack degradation Tug Hill late this coming week and beyond. Presume everyone is onto the potential 50-60 MPH wind event here late Thursday or Friday the 18th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Winter doesn't end, but snowfall can end. Yes but to declare winter done this early is insane. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be partly sunny and very mild. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 57° Newark: 58° Philadelphia: 60° Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy with periods of light snow. A general 1”-2” is likely with some locally higher amounts across central New Jersey and portions of Long Island. It will be much colder. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 41.6° Newark: 30-Year: 42.3°; 15-Year: 42.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.6°; 15-Year: 43.4° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 47F here already. Looking forward to another great day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Good model agreement on the MJO consolidating near the Maritime Continent into early March with warmer than average temperatures for us and a near record SPV +AO pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 56 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Yes but to declare winter done this early is insane. Look at the next three weeks. Then refer to a climatology chart. Prolonged cold is done. Just looking at your posts in the storm thread, you are a lot more hopeful then I am…which is a nice trait. I feel bad for the close in ski resorts. they had a brutal December and things aren’t looking all that great for Presidents week after a very good January/early February 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Look at the next three weeks. Then refer to a climatology chart. Prolonged cold is done. Just looking at your posts in the storm thread, you are a lot more hopeful then I am…which is a nice trait. I feel bad for the close in ski resorts. they had a brutal December and things aren’t looking all that great for Presidents week after a very good January/early February Very bad winter for many areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 7 hours ago, LibertyBell said: So you're saying the one mosquito I saw yesterday is going to be like 1000 today? That's it, I'm spraying later today. Yall might want to keep your masks on today lol. I envision multiple days this summer with lots of lows in the 80s and highs over 100. If we're going to be warm right now we might as well be super hot in the summer and set some records to remember. July 2010/2011 redux coming up. You do not want this. This type of extreme heat over a large metro area would be very bad. We've also warmed a lot since then so heat on that level could rival the heat we saw in Pacific NW or 110+ temperatures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Good article about March. Did not realize it was 70 before the 1888 blizzard. https://www.connecticutmag.com/the-connecticut-story/this-is-why-big-snowstorms-happen-in-march/article_48f78008-26cc-11e8-8dd9-f3671cb1fac7.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 57 before 11AM I picked a good day to go for a long walk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Yeah it feels great out there. Whatever one's thoughts on this winter so far, once got past our usual Christmastime 60s it hasn't been above 50 much right? Today reminds me of the old days when a sunny mid 50s day in Feb after nothing like it since December, feels like early Spring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: Yeah it feels great out there. Whatever one's thoughts on this winter so far, once got past our usual Christmastime 60s it hasn't been above 50 much right? Today reminds me of the old days when a sunny mid 50s day in Feb after nothing like it since December, feels like early Spring. By mid Feb you're getting a late October sun angle plus you body has acclimated to the cold so 50s feel a lot warmer than November/December. With our warming climate the transition into spring comes quickly however you still get flashes of harsh winter weather to ruin the party, which feel worse after a string of upper 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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