February 2022

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Cold and rainy spring with maybe an April snowstorm thrown in 

hey April snowstorms are FUN

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yikes so this would be a disaster and take effect late March and potential ruin spring.

I love April snow

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That one was on 2-12-18 and took around 3 weeks for the effects to be felt at the surface. 

Why does it take so long? And still thats enough time for it to snow here....we have until April 10th to get a decent snowstorm.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, EasternLI said:

I'd pass on any ssw that late. You could kiss any hopes of a pleasant spring goodbye. Misery until June. 

If it means early April snow sign me up.  

[North and West]

Cold and rainy spring with maybe an April snowstorm thrown in 

Oh please no


.

[Greg g]

1 hour ago, White Gorilla said:

Cold and rainy spring with maybe an April snowstorm thrown in 

If that were to happen, even more incentive to move out of here and go south 

[snowman19]

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

[snowman19]

4 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks!

I think 2018 had the SSWE occur the last week of Feb too if I am not mistaken.

No, it started by mid-February 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.

[North and West]

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

.

[MJO812]

58 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

I had snow in early April a few times

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I had snow in early April a few times

Yes, a complete anomalous/fluke event can certainly happen, sure, but definitely not the norm and any snowfall in late March/April is gone the next day at our latitude 

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

[EastonSN+]

Hey the EPS look good. Maybe with the SSWE we have non stop winter through mid April :()

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Yes, a complete anomalous/fluke event can certainly happen, sure, but definitely not the norm and any snowfall in late March/April is gone the next day at our latitude 

we average around an inch of snow in April don't we? It's a once in decade event to get a decent April snowfall, so it's rare but not unique.

October 2011 was unique.

I think we've had one decent April snowfall in every decade I've been around.

I'm just going by JFK numbers (snowfalls of 4 inches or higher)

April 1982..... 8 inches

April 1996..... 4 inches

April 2003...... 6 inches

April 2018........ 6 inches

 

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, North and West said:

.

Yeah we were worried about him....thought he got lost in a snow drift lol.... he was gone for a few days.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.

We've had a good event in April every decade I've been around.

4 inches or more.

 

[LibertyBell]

So how many days were there between the SSW in 2018 and the first wintry event after that?  Let's do some calculations and transpose that interval onto the projected date of the SSW this March and when the first wintry event may occur after that?

Let's say it's 20 days....  so we're talking about right after the Equinox to the middle of April to get something decent....we could have two wintry events in that time.

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey the EPS look good. Maybe with the SSWE we have non stop winter through mid April :()

After March 15 I'm done with winter so hopefully the sswe is a false flag.

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Not true. On April 2, 2018 I had 6" of snow right on the coast. April 7, 2003 7-8 inches, late March 2018 had 18-20" of snow on parts of Long Island and close to a foot right on the coast, etc. Not saying it would be true here but late Mar/early Apr can definitely produce near the coast in the right setup.

That March 2018 storm was insane!  I was living on LI at the time.  18” of fluff that seemed to come outta nowhere!  This was my driveway the next morning.

Late-season “fluke” events become much more likely following a SSW.  Can’t be ruled out if that’s what we end up seeing.

 

[eduggs]

Two wintry threats now in the medium range - Friday and Sun night-Monday. GFS and UK have wintry outcomes for both. The CMC is close for both but not quite there. Eminently trackable.

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Two wintry threats now in the medium range - Friday and Sun night-Monday. GFS and UK have wintry outcomes for both. The CMC is close for both but not quite there. Eminently trackable.

February is going to be very  active 

[doncat]

Welcome to Feb... cold continues with 15° here on si currently.

[EasternLI]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

A major SSW during the 1st week of March would be a complete waste for the snow lovers. There is a big lag between a legit SSW and a tropospheric response, usually a matter of weeks after….the 2018 one that happened in mid February took almost 3 weeks to reflect down to the surface. An early March SSW wouldn’t take effect until late March and by then winter is over and done, all she wrote, fat lady singing, say goodbye and goodnight, it’s over Johnny, bring down the curtain, game over for everyone south of central and northern New England at that point, not to mention it would destroy spring (late March, April, May) as cold, miserable and rainy 

[ForestHillWx]

9 here. Keep racking up single digit lows.
 

The Jersey City reservoir was completely iced over on Sunday; first time I recall that happening in a few years. 

[the_other_guy]

11F at 7 am in Hastings

 

 

[bluewave]

Parts of Long Island already have as much snow at the beginning of February as all of last year. Most years since 02-03 were over 30”. This is a first for a 20 year period. The few years that were below average were under 15”. So no years in the middle between more extreme highs and lows. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Season
Mean	0.0	0.5	5.5	13.2	12.1	6.8	0.3	T	37.3
2021-2022	0.0	T	0.3	31.8	M	M	M	M	32.1
2020-2021	T	0.0	7.5	1.1	24.9	T	T	0.0	33.5
2019-2020	0.0	0.1	4.2	2.5	0.0	T	T	T	6.8
2018-2019	0.0	4.3	T	0.9	3.5	4.1	T	0.0	12.8
2017-2018	0.0	T	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	0.0	65.9
2016-2017	T	T	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	0.0	39.3
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	T	24.8	13.2	3.2	0.2	0.0	41.4
2014-2015	0.0	T	0.4	30.2	13.4	19.7	0.0	0.0	63.7
2013-2014	0.0	0.3	8.1	25.2	24.5	5.4	0.2	0.0	63.7
2012-2013	0.0	4.2	0.6	3.3	31.4	7.4	0.0	0.0	46.9
2011-2012	0.3	0.0	T	3.8	0.6	T	0.0	0.0	4.7
2010-2011	0.0	T	14.9	34.4	3.9	2.1	T	0.0	55.3
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	25.3	6.4	21.7	0.4	0.0	0.0	53.8
2008-2009	0.0	T	10.4	8.9	3.3	13.6	T	0.0	36.2
2007-2008	0.0	0.0	2.6	0.8	7.3	T	0.0	0.0	10.7
2006-2007	0.0	T	0.0	1.0	4.2	3.8	T	0.0	9.0
2005-2006	0.0	0.5	7.6	4.7	19.9	3.2	0.1	0.0	36.0
2004-2005	0.0	T	7.0	21.5	17.0	13.3	0.0	0.0	58.8

 

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

So how many days were there between the SSW in 2018 and the first wintry event after that?  Let's do some calculations and transpose that interval onto the projected date of the SSW this March and when the first wintry event may occur after that?

Let's say it's 20 days....  so we're talking about right after the Equinox to the middle of April to get something decent....we could have two wintry events in that time.

 

This is exactly what I was pondering. Is it a hard rule approx. 3 weeks or can it vary. When did last year's SSWE occur, as we started realizing success Feb 1.

[EastonSN+]

8 hours ago, Eduardo said:

That March 2018 storm was insane!  I was living on LI at the time.  18” of fluff that seemed to come outta nowhere!  This was my driveway the next morning.

Late-season “fluke” events become much more likely following a SSW.  Can’t be ruled out if that’s what we end up seeing.

 

March/April 2018 was the snowiest March onward year of my life.

Storm totals

10 (medium sized tree fell on my house)

2.5

9.5

6 (April).

Absolutely insane.

If the exact same scenario played out the last 2 would be in scope tim wise. 

 

[EastonSN+]

Here another thing to ponder. The one constant this year has been a Neg EPO. 2018 was warmer leading in if I am not mistaken. 

If it happens this year we would not have to wait as long for the air mass to cool.