donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Wow Don so is the reason for the higher percentage of the total as the snowfall amounts go up because of a smaller sample size at each higher interval? For NYC, once a storm hits 6” or more, it’s fairly likely to reach higher amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(29/44) or +2. The next 16 have a winter is over look. WARNING SHOT: CFSv2 still has not caved and looks frigid thru March---except for first days of March---hee, hee, heee!---it's a trick. Month to date is 34.8[+0.6]. Should be 35.8[+1.3] by the 18th. Just a snowstorm of the mind Sunday/Monday, I am afraid. GEFS with just a 50% chance of at least 1" snow for the next 16 days---and it is all from Sunday/Monday. Reached 43 here yesterday. Today: 48-51, wind w., breezy at times, cloudy---clearing by PM, 40 by tomorrow AM. 40*(80%RH) here at 6am. 48* at Noon. 52* at 1pm. 55* at 4pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The usual warm spots in the region could see 3 days in a row reaching 50° to boost the monthly departures. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Morning thoughts… It will be mostly sunny and very mild. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 52° Newark: 52° Philadelphia: 56° Temperatures will remain above normal into the weekend. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 41.2°; 15-Year: 41.2° Newark: 30-Year: 41.9°; 15-Year: 42.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.2°; 15-Year: 43.2° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRVTS Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 if only we were in the bull's-eye seven days ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 While the EPS weeklies update will be out later, the GEFS is taking the MJO warm tour into March. Strong MJO 4-6 right into early March with a warm SE Ridge pattern and +AO. But signs of MJO 7 by mid-March allowing more blocking. This is when the GEFS tries to weaken the very intense SPV. Feb 23 to Feb 28 Mar 1-7 Mar 16 weaker SPV and MJO 7 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Beyond this little interlude Sunday-Tuesday it looks warm. Im a mets fan, I see a loser coming very early on… Warm up the Fat Lady…this winter is coming to a close 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: While the EPS weeklies update will be out later, the GEFS is taking the MJO warm tour into March. Strong MJO 4-6 right into early March with a warm SE Ridge pattern and +AO. But signs of MJO 7 by mid-March allowing more blocking. This is when the GEFS tries to weaken the very intense SPV. Feb 23 to Feb 28 Mar 1-7 Mar 16 weaker SPV and MJO 7 Yeah, been looking things over for a couple days. Was going to post about it today. But I think you nailed it here. Agree. Noticing the possible propagation towards phase 7 in March as well. Hints of it for sure on the ensembles. I've been wondering a bit if the time in phase 3 helped this PV to finally couple. Being as those events are favorable for +AO. After much of winter not doing so. Just a little speculation. I'm sure there are other factors in play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, been looking things over for a couple days. Was going to post about it today. But I think you nailed it here. Agree. Noticing the possible propagation towards phase 7 in March as well. Hints of it for sure on the ensembles. I've been wondering a bit if the time in phase 3 helped this PV to finally couple. Being as those events are favorable for +AO. After much of winter not doing so. Just a little speculation. I'm sure there are other factors in play. Mid March? What is the point though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Mid March? What is the point though The point of what? Not sure what your point is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 30 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Mid March? What is the point though Snow and cold in mid March is obviously not as enjoyable as in the heart of winter, but I will take it if that's a possibility. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: Yeah, been looking things over for a couple days. Was going to post about it today. But I think you nailed it here. Agree. Noticing the possible propagation towards phase 7 in March as well. Hints of it for sure on the ensembles. I've been wondering a bit if the time in phase 3 helped this PV to finally couple. Being as those events are favorable for +AO. After much of winter not doing so. Just a little speculation. I'm sure there are other factors in play. It will be interesting to see if we can make it over to MJO phase 7 in mid-March. The GEFS has a strong WWB pattern developing as the MJO propagates east. It may be strong enough to shift us out of this multiyear La Niña event to our next El Niño. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I'm going to cancel my stormvista subscription tonight since there is nothing to look forward to ahead. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, EasternLI said: The point of what? Not sure what your point is. Why the snarky response? You’re talking about a phase with hopes of cold and snow. Mid March, climate-wise, we are just about done. I think that is a very relative point. Sorry to rain on the mid march snow parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Why the snarky response? You’re talking about a phase with hopes of cold and snow. Mid March, climate-wise, we are just about done. I think that is a very relative point. Sorry to rain on the mid march snow parade Would agree in a general sense but we've had some bombs in late March early April-had 8 inches here 1st week of April 2018-rare but it happens. But appears we're likely to be mild rest of way overall this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, the_other_guy said: Why the snarky response? You’re talking about a phase with hopes of cold and snow. Mid March, climate-wise, we are just about done. I think that is a very relative point. Sorry to rain on the mid march snow parade I didn't say one word about snow or cold. You're making a lot of assumptions here about that post. And I realized that immediately, hence the snarky response. We're talking about the MJO. That doesn't automatically mean we're looking for snow or cold. I've been very objective on analysis of the MJO all season long. So I don't appreciate being lumped into some "snow parade". Sorry to rain on your strawman argument. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, the_other_guy said: Why the snarky response? You’re talking about a phase with hopes of cold and snow. Mid March, climate-wise, we are just about done. I think that is a very relative point. Sorry to rain on the mid march snow parade well let's put some solid numbers to your post. the chances are increasing we could be totally shut out for snow in February and yes I consider a T a shut out and thats what we have here unless we get some kind of renegade late March storm a la March 1998 we could be shut out of snow in March too There is a possibility that we have already received our last measurable snowfall for the season and that should be discussed because the chances of it are growing greater by the day So let's confront this possibility instead of hiding from it (not saying you are, but I see people dancing around it.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 37 minutes ago, EasternLI said: I didn't say one word about snow or cold. You're making a lot of assumptions here about that post. And I realized that immediately, hence the snarky response. We're talking about the MJO. That doesn't automatically mean we're looking for snow or cold. I've been very objective on analysis of the MJO all season long. So I don't appreciate being lumped into some "snow parade". Sorry to rain on your strawman argument. I just made a direct statement which honestly, are really all people are interested in and why they come to this forum for. So we should discuss the very real possibility of the above coming true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Some of the posts today about a pattern change mid-March have a point. If the GEFS is showing phase 7 and a weakening SPV come 3/16, it’s probably rushing it, just like we saw this month where the pattern change was rushed, so add a week or 2 and you’re looking at late March in reality. Once you get past 3/15, you are fighting sun angle, climo and length of day. Can you get a snowstorm in late March? Of course you can and have. But minus a completely anomalous, fluke event, major snowstorms in the metro area after 3/15 are very few and very far between. Other question if you’re looking for snow is will there even be arctic air around the CONUS to tap at that point? 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I'm going to cancel my stormvista subscription tonight since there is nothing to look forward to ahead. Why do you say that? It is not unusual for us to get some mild weather in February and very common for us to get warmth prior to late season snowstorms. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Some of the posts today about a pattern change mid-March have a point. If the GEFS is showing phase 7 and a weakening SPV come 3/16, it’s probably rushing it, just like we saw this month where the pattern change was rushed, so add a week or 2 and you’re looking at late March in reality. Once you get past 3/15, you are fighting sun angle, climo and length of day. Can you get a snowstorm in late March? Of course you can and have. But minus a completely anomalous, fluke event, major snowstorms in the metro area after 3/15 are very few and very far between. Other question if you’re looking for snow is will there even be arctic air around the CONUS to tap at that point? Even early April... it depends on what you mean by snowstorm lol. Realistically throwing out the colder winters like 81-82 and 02-03 and 17-18 which had big snowstorms we can look at milder winters which ended with a snowfall, then there are analogs like 83-84, 89-90, 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, 99-00. All of these had a late season snowfall after a warm February and/or March March 1984 April 1990 (after a historically warm Mid March.) April 1997 March 1998 (after a nearly snowless winter) March 1999 April 2000 None of these were really big snowfalls (I think March 1998 might have been the biggest with 5 inches, so that probably represents the top end of what we can expect.) Outside of that and March 1984 (which was more of a mixed precip mess), the others were all 1-3 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Just now, Wxoutlooksblog said: Why do you say that? It is not unusual for us to get some mild weather in February and very common for us to get warmth prior to late season snowstorms. WX/PT They're usually very minor, we need to whittle down the analogs to the ones I listed above. 89-90 is a typical example, a warm February and March followed by a 1-3 inch snowfall in early April. 97-98 might represent the top end of what we should expect, 5" after a nearly snowless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Wxoutlooksblog said: Why do you say that? It is not unusual for us to get some mild weather in February and very common for us to get warmth prior to late season snowstorms. WX/PT I also do not understand why everyone's focus has turned to mid March which is more than a month away. We are following ensemble and operational model products which are not fool-proof and sometimes in error. The one constant about the weather is that it's always changing. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Through 2 pm, the high temperature at Islip is 54. That tied the daily record high temperature that was set in 2001. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said: Through 2 pm, the high temperature at Islip is 54. That tied the daily record high temperature that was set in 2001. I think JFK made it to 55, did they not Don? It's going to be impressive to get three straight days in the 50s at the coast before February 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I think JFK made it to 55, did they not Don? It's going to be impressive to get three straight days in the 50s at the coast before February 15. The winter warmth since the 15-16 winter has been unprecedented in our area. This will be our 7th warmer than average winter in a row. The one month of cold in January was a real outlier. You have to wonder what type of pattern it will take to have a colder than average winter again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Windy here, gusting to 35mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Currently 48* after overnite low of 29*, it reached 49*here earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 We are on track for another winter with 20 days or more reaching 50°+. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Shut it down…she is done. Let’s torch 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now