February 2022

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, bluewave said:

With the record KU pattern since 09-10, the bar has been raised relative to what past expectations used to be. Everyone wants to be closer to the big jackpot zone. With the lateJanuary blizzard, the place to be was around ISP. My only real disappointment in this new snowfall era was missing the NEMO 50 DBZ 6”+ per hour band and the near 40” max. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/02/01/northeast-snow-storm-climate/

Single-day records are not the only objective way to quantify the incredible winter weather activity of recent years. A metric known as the Northeast Snow Impact Scale (NESIS), which calculates the population-weighted snowfall footprints of winter storms, can be used to compare the social strain induced by Northeast winters. Analysis of NESIS data shows the 2008-2018 period saw more than three times as many winter storms as any other decade since at least 1958-1968.

 

We got Jan 2016 which was a better storm than that fish Nemo

 

[HVSnowLover]

30 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

as I just stated I dont even care what Manhattan gets, most of the people who live in the city live in Brooklyn and Queens and both got double digits and a foot or more of snow.  We just need to stop being fixated on Central Park for snowfall amounts and temperatures.

Agree I also am sure it's wrong. I got definitely over 8.5 inches and I live just north of the city so I'd imagine Central Park got more.  It was honestly a very boring storm with low rates here but the ratios were great and I went outside and was like woah with all the snow.

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The current SPV is very strong and beginning to couple with the +AO. That’s why this month is turning out warmer than January was. So it’s the opposite of what a SSW is. 
 

 

Absolutely no evidence whatsoever of any SSWE right through the beginning of March, also the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and we get into a mild pattern by the 20th, also looks like March is going to be mild as well as of now: 

 

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

We got Jan 2016 which was a better storm than that fish Nemo

 

My two favorite snowstorms since 2010 were Boxing Day and Jan 2016. Boxing Day for my best drifts since Feb 78 in Long Beach. Jan 2016 for overall totals, duration, and best monthly comeback on record from Dec 15. But the Nemo snowband in February 2013 surpassed both those events for intensity. They even wrote a paper on it. That storm could have produced a 50” jackpot if it had stalled. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/6/waf-d-14-00056_1.xml

4. Summary and conclusions

The 8–9 February 2013 Northeast blizzard was a unique event, exhibiting several intriguing dual-polarization radar signatures. This study investigates the evolution and nature of these signatures, and the thermodynamic conditions within which they developed, to obtain a better understanding of the fundamental microphysical processes within this system. Polarimetric data (from the S-band KOKX radar) were analyzed alongside RAP model wet-bulb temperature analyses, as well as surface precipitation type observations from both mPING and the NWS Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures.

Values of Z_H during this event were extraordinary for a winter storm, exceeding 50 dBZ and reaching as high as 60 dBZ within a shallow layer just above the surface. Also, as the incoming snowbands proceeded northward, the polarimetric data exhibited an exceptionally distinct transition from frozen to unfrozen precipitation, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. During this event, the polarimetric observations were critical for accurately assigning the transition from liquid to frozen precipitation, illustrating how dual-polarization radar data could be a potentially valuable tool for forecasters when nowcasting transitional winter precipitation. Another prominent feature of the event was the remarkable differential attenuation, resulting from the radar beam propagating through regions of heavy wet snow and mixed-phase precipitation. These differential attenuation observations reached magnitudes that exceed anything previously documented for S-band radar observations in snow. This study also documents a downward excursion of the MLBB to the surface, characterized by reduced ρ_hv and locally maximized Z_H and Z_DR; this feature was correlated with an abrupt transition line of precipitation types at the surface.

Some of the most distinctive signatures observed during the event were elevated horizontal layers of enhanced Z_DR and K_DP, and reduced ρ_hv, located above the environmental freezing layer and within the comma-head region of the cyclone. The enhanced Z_DR values likely signified the presence of large, horizontally oriented ice crystals at the subfreezing temperatures aloft, near the model-predicted −15°C T_Wisotherm, where the conditions for rapid depositional growth are most favorable. These depositional growth layers appeared to be correlated with the increase in heavy snowfall; ice crystals were generated aloft, aggregated, descended, and then contributed to the large Z_H values near the surface. The layers appeared increasingly more evident as the period of greatest Z_H values neared, with the initial layer observations preceding the greatest surface Z_H by several hours, demonstrating the potential utility of this signature for nowcasting increases in precipitation at the surface.

Several polarimetric artifacts were also observed and provided valuable information about the system’s microphysical processes. Distinct depolarization streaks occurred with frequency during the 2300 UTC hour, when Z_H exceeded 55 dBZ near the surface. These radial streaks of positive and negative Z_DR indicated regions of atmospheric electrification (and possible regions of supercooled water), and they originated at uncharacteristically low heights, atop weak convective updrafts in regions of heavy wet snow. The effects of nonuniform beamfilling were also observed during the event, indicating large gradients of Φ_DP within the radar resolution volume, due to a nonuniform mixture of precipitation types and sizes within the radar beam cross sections. Finally, a “snow flare” of reduced ρ_hv, enhanced Z_DR, moderate K_DP, and low Z_H flared outward from the radar and appeared similar to a three-body scattering signature commonly reported in hailstorms; this signature could also be due to sidelobe contamination. This feature was associated with very large snowflakes and ice hydrometeors at the surface, including anomalous ice hydrometeors (Ganetis et al. 2013), which had the appearance of small, irregular hailstones.

This study provides a next step toward understanding the fundamental microphysical processes within winter precipitation and how polarimetric signatures relate to larger-scale storm structure and evolution. The radar signatures investigated herein convey the value of polarimetry in identifying features undetectable in conventional radar data. These signatures are associated with hazardous winter weather conditions that cause havoc on the public and transportation sectors, both at the surface and in the air. Therefore, polarimetry provides a valuable tool for short-term detection and prediction of winter weather precipitation types, especially transitional events.

 

 

[L.I.Pete]

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My two favorite snowstorms since 2010 were Boxing Day and Jan 2016. Boxing Day for my best drifts since Feb 78 in Long Beach. Jan 2016 for overall totals, duration, and best monthly comeback on record from Dec 15. But the Nemo snowband in February 2013 surpassed both those events for intensity. They even wrote a paper on it. That storm could have produced a 50” jackpot if it had stalled. 

 

 

30"+ here in Port Jeff Station, like 18" in five hours. Best storm ever for me, with '96 second and Boxing Day third. 

[Allsnow]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

@AllsnowIts a beautiful, wonderful thing!!!!! :-)

Yup. Finally agreement after the eps rushed it. After the 20th winter is over. I expect a very warm March with mjo movement 

[Allsnow]

@bluewave how much did your area get in the blizzard last month? 

[Brian5671]

A 6 week winter.   Better than some of our 3 week winters!

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

A 6 week winter.   Better than some of our 3 week winters!

Our winters are normally 3-6 weeks down here. Last winter we got all our snow in a 3 weeks span outside one week in December. I’ll remember this winter for the cold in January and thats about it. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Yup. Finally agreement after the eps rushed it. After the 20th winter is over. I expect a very warm March with mjo movement 

Agree

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Our winters are normally 3-6 weeks down here. Last winter we got all our snow in a 3 weeks span outside one week in December. I’ll remember this winter for the cold in January and thats about it. 

True it's usually one good 3-4 week period

15/16 was that way a torch outside of 3 weeks.  

[JustinRP37]

Groundhog was wrong once again. This month looking to finish much above normal for temps. Base state is always going to be above normal. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

ah okay I thought it was the -PNA not the +AO, this is why we have to be so careful with stats.  Logic must also be applied; I like how you restated with the converse statement of NYC more likely to see a 4" snowfall when the AO isn't +

 

The n figure represents all 4” or more storms during February 7-21, 1950-2021. NYC had 6 of them when the AO was positive. There’s enough such storms to keep the option of a moderate snowstorm on the table until the synoptic details become more clear.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

My two favorite snowstorms since 2010 were Boxing Day and Jan 2016. Boxing Day for my best drifts since Feb 78 in Long Beach. Jan 2016 for overall totals, duration, and best monthly comeback on record from Dec 15. But the Nemo snowband in February 2013 surpassed both those events for intensity. They even wrote a paper on it. That storm could have produced a 50” jackpot if it had stalled. 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/6/waf-d-14-00056_1.xml

4. Summary and conclusions

The 8–9 February 2013 Northeast blizzard was a unique event, exhibiting several intriguing dual-polarization radar signatures. This study investigates the evolution and nature of these signatures, and the thermodynamic conditions within which they developed, to obtain a better understanding of the fundamental microphysical processes within this system. Polarimetric data (from the S-band KOKX radar) were analyzed alongside RAP model wet-bulb temperature analyses, as well as surface precipitation type observations from both mPING and the NWS Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures.

Values of Z_H during this event were extraordinary for a winter storm, exceeding 50 dBZ and reaching as high as 60 dBZ within a shallow layer just above the surface. Also, as the incoming snowbands proceeded northward, the polarimetric data exhibited an exceptionally distinct transition from frozen to unfrozen precipitation, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. During this event, the polarimetric observations were critical for accurately assigning the transition from liquid to frozen precipitation, illustrating how dual-polarization radar data could be a potentially valuable tool for forecasters when nowcasting transitional winter precipitation. Another prominent feature of the event was the remarkable differential attenuation, resulting from the radar beam propagating through regions of heavy wet snow and mixed-phase precipitation. These differential attenuation observations reached magnitudes that exceed anything previously documented for S-band radar observations in snow. This study also documents a downward excursion of the MLBB to the surface, characterized by reduced ρ_hv and locally maximized Z_H and Z_DR; this feature was correlated with an abrupt transition line of precipitation types at the surface.

Some of the most distinctive signatures observed during the event were elevated horizontal layers of enhanced Z_DR and K_DP, and reduced ρ_hv, located above the environmental freezing layer and within the comma-head region of the cyclone. The enhanced Z_DR values likely signified the presence of large, horizontally oriented ice crystals at the subfreezing temperatures aloft, near the model-predicted −15°C T_Wisotherm, where the conditions for rapid depositional growth are most favorable. These depositional growth layers appeared to be correlated with the increase in heavy snowfall; ice crystals were generated aloft, aggregated, descended, and then contributed to the large Z_H values near the surface. The layers appeared increasingly more evident as the period of greatest Z_H values neared, with the initial layer observations preceding the greatest surface Z_H by several hours, demonstrating the potential utility of this signature for nowcasting increases in precipitation at the surface.

Several polarimetric artifacts were also observed and provided valuable information about the system’s microphysical processes. Distinct depolarization streaks occurred with frequency during the 2300 UTC hour, when Z_H exceeded 55 dBZ near the surface. These radial streaks of positive and negative Z_DR indicated regions of atmospheric electrification (and possible regions of supercooled water), and they originated at uncharacteristically low heights, atop weak convective updrafts in regions of heavy wet snow. The effects of nonuniform beamfilling were also observed during the event, indicating large gradients of Φ_DP within the radar resolution volume, due to a nonuniform mixture of precipitation types and sizes within the radar beam cross sections. Finally, a “snow flare” of reduced ρ_hv, enhanced Z_DR, moderate K_DP, and low Z_H flared outward from the radar and appeared similar to a three-body scattering signature commonly reported in hailstorms; this signature could also be due to sidelobe contamination. This feature was associated with very large snowflakes and ice hydrometeors at the surface, including anomalous ice hydrometeors (Ganetis et al. 2013), which had the appearance of small, irregular hailstones.

This study provides a next step toward understanding the fundamental microphysical processes within winter precipitation and how polarimetric signatures relate to larger-scale storm structure and evolution. The radar signatures investigated herein convey the value of polarimetry in identifying features undetectable in conventional radar data. These signatures are associated with hazardous winter weather conditions that cause havoc on the public and transportation sectors, both at the surface and in the air. Therefore, polarimetry provides a valuable tool for short-term detection and prediction of winter weather precipitation types, especially transitional events.

 

 

Wow do you think that was the closest thing to March 1888-- since March 1888?  Do you think such a band could ever happen here?  Our part of Long Island never seems to get bands like that.

How much did you get in Boxing Day in Long Beach?  And I think you got over 30 inches in Jan 2016 in Long Beach too? Thats what the average total was in SW Nassau.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The n figure represents all 4” or more storms during February 7-21, 1950-2021. NYC had 6 of them when the AO was positive. There’s enough such storms to keep the option of a moderate snowstorm on the table until the synoptic details become more clear.

Don is moderate considered anything less than 8"?  or 6"?

Do you have a break down of 6" and/or 8" snowstorms with +AO too?  Thanks

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Absolutely no evidence whatsoever of any SSWE right through the beginning of March, also the tropical convective forcing moves to the Maritime Continent and we get into a mild pattern by the 20th, also looks like March is going to be mild as well as of now: 

I think the wild card for the very long range is whether this MJO is able to shift us into an El Niño. The long range GFS VP anomalies take us from from MJO 5 to 6-7 in March. This eventually produces a WWB which could lead to an El Niño formation by the summer. Several El Niño’s have occurred following strong March MJO 6-7 events. 
 

Tail end of La Niña near the surface

 

 

GEFS MJO driven WWB in March

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said:

Groundhog was wrong once again. This month looking to finish much above normal for temps. Base state is always going to be above normal. 

Our Groundhog said winter would end early.

No one cares about some punk Groundhog in Rednecksville, USA lol.

I think most of us are fine if we get one big snowstorm next week and then let Spring come in.

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

I think the wild card for the very long range is whether this MJO is able to shift us into an El Niño. The long range GFS VP anomalies take us from from MJO 5 to 6-7 in March. This eventually produces a WWB which could lead to an El Niño formation by the summer. Several El Niño’s have occurred following strong March MJO 6-7 events. 
 

Tail end of La Niña near the surface

 

 

GEFS MJO driven WWB in March

 

 

 

There has been some notable big late March/early April NE snowstorms in years where you are flipping from La Nina to El nino

[STORMANLI]

Does anyone have a map of each groundhog's CWO?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the wild card for the very long range is whether this MJO is able to shift us into an El Niño. The long range GFS VP anomalies take us from from MJO 5 to 6-7 in March. This eventually produces a WWB which could lead to an El Niño formation by the summer. Several El Niño’s have occurred following strong March MJO 6-7 events. 
 

Tail end of La Niña near the surface

 

 

GEFS MJO driven WWB in March

 

 

 

I love this, Chris.  And there's another fly in the ointment.  I suspect you think we'll get a strong el nino next year?  Good- we need to end these trash multiyear la ninas once and for all.

Anyway aren't strong el ninos preceded by late season snowstorms in the previous Spring?

April 1982 and April 1997 being cases in point.

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There has been some notable big late March/early April NE snowstorms in years where you are flipping from La Nina to El nino

lol damn it I type with 2 fingers or else I would've beaten you with this.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There has been some notable big late March/early April NE snowstorms in years where you are flipping from La Nina to El nino

I mentioned April 1983 and April 1997, are there others that you know about?  Was the one in the early part of the 20th century one of them- the one that dropped close to 20" in Philly in April? I wonder why NYC didn't get more in that one.

 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

There has been some notable big late March/early April NE snowstorms in years where you are flipping from La Nina to El nino

The current MJO forecast progression would have March starting out warmer than average. This would probably last through phases 5 and 6. If we can make it over to 7 eventually, that’s where it could get colder again with maybe a final snow event for someone in the region. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The current MJO forecast progression would have March starting out warmer than average. This would probably last through phases 5 and 6. If we can make it over to 7 eventually, that’s where it could get colder again with maybe a final snow event for someone in the region. 

We even had snow in April, with 1-2" after the very warm March 1990 if you remember, when it hit 85 for 3 straight days in mid March with everyone wearing shorts and staying here for Spring Break lol.  And then the snow event in April.  Was that transitioning to an El Nino too?

 

[STORMANLI]

Or County Warning Area

[donsutherland1]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don is moderate considered anything less than 8"?  or 6"?

Do you have a break down of 6" and/or 8" snowstorms with +AO too?  Thanks

I consider 4"-6" moderate and 6"+ significant. For NYC, 3 of the 16 (19%) 6" or greater snowstorms occurred with an AO+; 3 of the 12 (25%) of the 8" or greater snowstorms; and, 3 of the 10 (30%) of the 10" or greater snowstorms.

[rclab]

32 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

lol damn it I type with 2 fingers or else I would've beaten you with this.

 

Wait a minute, Liberty. All those posts with just two fingers …. If the forum Olympic post event ever gets made your a definite gold medal contender. Either that or you should bequeath one of them, preferably your pointer finger, to the Smithsonian. As always ..

[donsutherland1]

Milder air has returned to the region. Much of the rest of this week will see above normal temperatures before the next cold front reaches the region during the weekend. That cold shot will likely be fairly sharp but short-lived.

There is growing consensus on the long range ensembles that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. Ridging could retrograde to the East with the persistent trough heading westward. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings after mid-month. Such a change could be preceded by a storm, as sometimes happens. Currently, the guidance suggests the potential for an offshore storm to bring a light snowfall to parts of the region. Details remain subject to change.

There remains a degree of uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of the pattern change. However, the warmer pattern will likely be in place for the closing week of February. Some guidance suggests that readings could rise to well above normal levels during that time.

The EPS continues to forecast the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern around February 20th. Such a pattern favors above to much above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +12.39 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.945.

On February 7 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.154 (RMM). The February 6-adjusted amplitude was 1.273 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.8° above normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

52 minutes ago, rclab said:

Wait a minute, Liberty. All those posts with just two fingers …. If the forum Olympic post event ever gets made your a definite gold medal contender. Either that or you should bequeath one of them, preferably your pointer finger, to the Smithsonian. As always ..

and the climate change subforum lol

yes- although I look down when I type for extended periods but I have a memory map of where most of the keys are even when I use only 2 fingers.

by the way speaking of the climate subforum there is breaking news!

Do you know of the Tokamak project in Europe to produce controllable nuclear fusion?  They just announced they achieved a world record 59 megajoules in 5 seconds in a controlled nuclear fusion reaction!

 

[LibertyBell]

58 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I consider 4"-6" moderate and 6"+ significant. For NYC, 3 of the 16 (19%) 6" or greater snowstorms occurred with an AO+; 3 of the 12 (25%) of the 8" or greater snowstorms; and, 3 of the 10 (30%) of the 10" or greater snowstorms.

Wow Don so is the reason for the higher percentage of the total as the snowfall amounts go up because of a smaller sample size at each higher interval?