mikem81 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 21 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lol These are snapshots in time. Can you post the 5 day 850 temp anomaly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 58 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps totally caving to the GEFS this afternoon…not shocked Definitely did in the tropics this run. Much more of the gefs type looks there among the individual members then there have been at 12z. I think it makes sense too, with what the gefs is doing. According to the sst layout currently anyway. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 17 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Definitely did in the tropics this run. Much more of the gefs type looks there among the individual members then there have been at 12z. I think it makes sense too, with what the gefs is doing. According to the sst layout currently anyway. Yup. The trough is moving east the last few runs 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. The trough is moving east the last few runs The weeklies is really warm but it has been a disaster all winter. Maybe it's struggling with this pattern. This winter hasn't been acting like a la nina winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: troll.mp4 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 After some mild days this week it looks like back to normal or below. The pattern change to a mild February keeps getting pushed back. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Milder air is poised to overspread the region. Much of the rest of this week will see above normal temperatures before the next cold front reaches the region during the weekend. That cold shot will likely be of a fairly short duration. There is growing consensus on the long range ensembles that the second half of February could experience a significant pattern change. Ridging could retrograde to the East with the persistent trough heading westward. That pattern change would lead to a return of sustained above normal readings after mid-month. Such a change could be preceded by a storm, as sometimes happens. There remains a degree of uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of the pattern change. However, the warmer pattern will likely be in place for the closing week of February. Some guidance suggests that readings could rise to well above normal levels during that time. The EPS continues to forecast the development of an EPO+/AO+/PNA- pattern around February 20th. Such a pattern favors above to much above normal temperatures in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around February 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through meteorological winter. The SOI was +7.30 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.672. On February 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.837 (RMM). The February 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.769 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 68% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal February (1991-2020 normal). February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 37.7° (1.8° above normal). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Feb will still be several degrees above normal even if it isn't an all out torch. Just look at this week. I see low to mid 50s for highs. We get a brief cool down but then things trend up again. This is far from the Jan chill we've experienced 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Feb will still be several degrees above normal even if it isn't an all out torch. Just look at this week. I see low to mid 50s for highs. We get a brief cool down but then things trend up again. This is far from the Jan chill we've experienced Which is fine.. Jan was a bit too cold especially the nights 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 29 minutes ago, Greg g said: Which is fine.. Jan was a bit too cold especially the nights Charlotteburg Reservoir N.J. averaged 33 in the day and 15 at night with 11 nights in the single digits or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 The TPV shifting closer to Greenland from Hudson Bay in January is allowing milder temperatures this month near the East Coast with the more +AO pattern. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Feb will still be several degrees above normal even if it isn't an all out torch. Just look at this week. I see low to mid 50s for highs. We get a brief cool down but then things trend up again. This is far from the Jan chill we've experienced Im fairness, late Feb highs are low 40s already. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 16 hours ago, snowman19 said: If something happens next week, that’s probably all she wrote for winter. The pattern turns into this right after and into March: Probably- last year winter ended around this time too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The one thing that we can say about the long range EPS is that it has been trying to weaken the Western Ridge too quickly. We saw this with forecasts for early to mid February issued back in late January. The record ridge near California this week is exceeding the forecast made on January 31st. This was the first January since 2015 with the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge making a return. The EPS also had the same problem then with showing too weak a ridge out West in its long range forecasts in 2015. This may go beyond the MJO differences between the Euro and GFS since that ridge was shown to be related to forcing in the WPAC east of the Philippines. So that may be why we see the split forcing near the IO with the MJO and WPAC forcing east of the Philippines. EPS forecast archive for January 2015 https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/01/ New EPS forecast Jan 7-14 Old forecast for Jan 7-14 issued on January 31st isnt that California drought keeping the ridge going? Maybe it will stay there for the entire month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The TPV shifting closer to Greenland from Hudson Bay in January is allowing milder temperatures this month near the East Coast with the more +AO pattern. Is this why we didnt get snow with this coastal storm despite the favorable offshore track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Been looking much better past couple cycles. Really digging here 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Been looking much better past couple cycles. Really digging here Ends up cutting off down south but very close 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ends up cutting off down south but very close Something to watch atleast.. how'd it look on cmc or ukie? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 18 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Been looking much better past couple cycles. Really digging here Is this is going to develop and come up the coast the GFS will be the last to show it, the Euro or CMC probably the first. WX/PT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 All the models are a close miss for a big storm but every model has H5 really different than 12z in a favorable way. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 32 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All the models are a close miss for a big storm but every model has H5 really different than 12z in a favorable way. The only model I'm looking at that hasn't jumped way west with the storm is the GEFS. And the GEFS did jump the opposite way, to the east, but not really that much. We know the models will shift around some more and we know from extremely recent history that the first models to lock in the correct track will be the European and the Canadian models. WX/PT 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 EPS may be starting to get interested in the 14th. This is the best look it's had thus far for that period from what I've seen. Let's gin up some more support. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Morning thoughts… Clouds will give way to sunshine. It will be mild. High temperatures will likely reach the middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 45° Newark: 44° Philadelphia: 45° Temperatures will remain above normal into the weekend.. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 40..9°; 15-Year: 40.9° Newark: 30-Year: 41.6°; 15-Year: 41.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 42.8°; 15-Year: 42.7° 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(29/44) or +3. Month to date is 33.9[-0.1]. Should be 35.5[+1.6] by the 16th. Reached 40 here yesterday. For the Super Bowl Sunday event, the GFS/EURO say---take your boat 300 miles east and prepare to shovel the deck clear. Today: 43-45, wind w., breezy, cloudy-clearing early, 32 by tomorrow AM. 37*(92%RH) here at 6am. 44* at Noon. 40* at 4pm and clouded up. 36* at 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Gefs isn't too bad either TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Gefs isn't too bad either TBH. Eps and gefs moving in the right direction for the vday weekend storm 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps and gefs moving in the right direction for the vday weekend storm Canadian ensembles have something out there as well. It's possible to squeeze something in if we get the favorable PNA spike. Just from a pattern point of view. Gotta keep an eye on it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Western ridge looks much better also. Might be on to something here. Long ways to go. Atleast its something to track 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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