Brasiluvsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 New City Rockland County checking in and everything here is white including the streets I had to go out and clean off the wifes car and threw down salt for her so she could get to work = somebody has to do it for her ,,,now I am back in bed with a cup of hot tea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: New City Rockland County checking in and everything here is white including the streets I had to go out and clean off the wifes car and threw down salt for her so she could get to work = somebody has to do it for her ,,,now I am back in bed with a cup of hot tea I went from haverstraw to pearl river about an hour ago.. side streets have some snow main roads are wet and just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 It's been freezing rain for the last 30 minutes or so and we now have a glaze of ice on everything, including driveways and sidewalks, which are treacherous - our road was treated, so that's ok. 31F here with precip ending for now. WWA certainly verified for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Icy morning in suffolk, above freezing now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxSnowWx37 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just had a Nice burst of snow and still snowing lightly ..still hasn't changed over to liquid up here..still at 32.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: I have noticed the eps following the gefs this whole winter with the MJO. I wonder if this is the case here again or a legit warmup will be on the way. All the models have been too fast with the forcing changes going back to December. The convection has been stalling in place acting more like a standing wave. So the pattern change they were forecasting near the solstice got pushed back to January. Then they were too fast to weaken the January +PNA which is now continuing into February. The other thing is that the MJO has been competing with forcing in other locations. This month we have split forcing in the IO and WPAC at the same time. So we aren’t getting the typical MJO forcing response. That being said, the late February forecast will probably come down to whether we keep the split forcing or it consolidates more near the Maritime Continent. Split forcing pattern in IO and WPAC 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 This mornings snow has been surprising long lived. I figured maybe some flakes to start while it was still cold before it started transitioning but it has now been snowing for hours. While it was up to about a half inch it melted off most hard surfaces even though it has not stopped snowing the whole time, sun angle , and it stopped accumulating elsewhere but isn't melting off the pre-existing icepack and has put a nice coating on exposed surfaces. It appears to be letting up now, the sky has brightened and the temp popped to 33 a few minutes ago, maybe we avoid the wet stuff up here? 33/32/SE 0-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The EPS is identical to the GEPS at day 15. The GEFS is on its own. The main difference between the GEPS and GEFS is the tropical convection. The GEFS is slower moving the forcing east from the IO than the GEPS. So the GEPS and EPS have more of a -PNA in late February with the convection closer to the Maritime Continent. The CFS weeklies are also identical to the GEPS and EPS, the tropical convective forcing change and the -AAM drop supports this. You also have a record breaking strong SPV which is coupling going into late month. This time, the change is almost certainly real and this isn’t a week or 2 change, as depicted it is going to have staying power going into the beginning of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 The schools up near me are dismissing at 12:00. What a sad state of affairs this nation has become. 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 I expect a full cave by the GEFS to the EPS, CFS, GEPS guidance: 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 All the more reason I hope we can squeak a decent storm in mid month. At least something fun to track regardless of the actual outcome. The excitement of tracking tornado season as I’ve always done every spring prior to joining this forum is always tempered by the human toll of such events. Winter storms, though potentially damaging in their own way, are just a lot more uniquely “fun.” Still can’t believe NJ had an EF3 tornado this past year; that was absolutely nuts. Looked reminiscent of a southern multi vortex tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I expect a full cave by the GEFS to the EPS, CFS, GEPS guidance: Highly unlikely…the euro mjo plots already go towards the GEFS with more p1/2 longer. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Volcanic Winter Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 At least Snowman is backing his position up with the musings of professionals as well, however much I may not like the outcome. Certainly nothing seems set in stone and I for sure hope the MJO forcing ends up a bit more favorable so we can have a decent conclusion to winter. Let it torch in March, fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Highly unlikely…the euro mjo plots already go towards the GEFS with more p1/2 longer. 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Highly unlikely…the euro mjo plots already go towards the GEFS with more p1/2 longer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 The cave has begun….. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The cave has begun….. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: It’s probably going to take a couple of cycles but it has begun to cave toward the EPS as Commodity Wx pointed out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Those RMM charts don't tell the whole story. Careful with those. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Those RMM charts don't tell the whole story. Careful with those. Eps has been trending towards the gefs with the MJO all winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Those RMM charts don't tell the whole story. Careful with those. It does imo because the euro charts are lingering in 2/3 longer now. Which is a nod to the American guidance. Even the olr maps are slower with the progression then the euro 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It’s probably going to take a couple of cycles but it has begun to cave toward the EPS as Commodity Wx pointed out Just like the beginning of February!! Right Eddie Mush?? 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: It does imo because the euro charts are lingering in 2/3 longer now. Which is a nod to the American guidance. Even the olr maps are slower with the progression then the euro Yeah I see what you mean. I actually think the gefs has done fairly well this year in the tropics. Euro guidance can get overamped sometimes late. I've seen it happen a couple times this season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg g Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Any update on the 12z suite regarding the valentine day threat?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 26 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Yeah I see what you mean. I actually think the gefs has done fairly well this year in the tropics. Euro guidance can get overamped sometimes late. I've seen it happen a couple times this season. Yes, the euro has been to quick with the mjo. Perfect example was when snowman kept saying rna for the end of January/two weeks of cold….. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, Greg g said: Any update on the 12z suite regarding the valentine day threat?? Last night's Euro hit us with some snow, but today's 12z run is out to sea. GFS and GGEM are too far to the south and east as well. Obviously still plenty of time for it to trend closer. At least there is a potential storm, and it's not bad having the models too far south and east at this early point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Eps totally caving to the GEFS this afternoon…not shocked 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Eps totally caving to the GEFS this afternoon…not shocked 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man EPS keeps caving. More better height changes after day 10 for wintry weather. 10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Getting its ass kicked by the GEFS for most of this winter...at least since late December 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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