Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,600
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 2022


cleetussnow
 Share

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

If something happens next week, that’s probably all she wrote for winter. The pattern turns into this right after and into March: 

 

You don't stop

It's certainly possible if the MJO goes into 4 but that's still up in the air.

Do you make money in warm  weather ?

  • Like 5
  • Haha 5
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

good this is awesome and enhances our chances for mid February snow

 

The time to watch for snow potential here will be next week following the record 582 DM West Coast heat dome in California. Then we get another big amplification and the trough begins to pull back to the Plains. But as usual, the storm details will come down to the short term forecasts.

1391276D-CA8F-433C-B7F0-A705DE283B5D.png.81a1a491dc05ce8d9146001435e045de.png
931C6736-11BB-4B2E-9A6A-CF9EB26B3E6D.thumb.png.b2d32d53bf6966823153a50ebf8a890f.png

B6DBC40B-2F42-4609-B19C-54A6F7AEF10F.thumb.png.d49b04e4215437ff015118e993339d40.png

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, bluewave said:

The time to watch for snow potential here will be next week following the record 582 DM West Coast heat dome in California. Then we get another big amplification and the trough begins to pull back to the Plains. But as usual, the storm details will come down to the short term forecasts.

1391276D-CA8F-433C-B7F0-A705DE283B5D.png.81a1a491dc05ce8d9146001435e045de.png
931C6736-11BB-4B2E-9A6A-CF9EB26B3E6D.thumb.png.b2d32d53bf6966823153a50ebf8a890f.png

B6DBC40B-2F42-4609-B19C-54A6F7AEF10F.thumb.png.d49b04e4215437ff015118e993339d40.png

 

 

Pretty big difference between the EPS and GEFS overnight in the 15 day period. Both advertise a different pattern than we currently have BUT GEFS has the boundary south of us (muted SE ridge) while EPS is Feb 2018.

Wonder which suite has been more accurate this winter to date.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Pretty big difference between the EPS and GEFS overnight in the 15 day period. Both advertise a different pattern than we currently have BUT GEFS has the boundary south of us (muted SE ridge) while EPS is Feb 2018.

Wonder which suite has been more accurate this winter to date.

Euro mjo rushes into 4 while the gefs doesn't.  That's the big difference.

  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Pretty big difference between the EPS and GEFS overnight in the 15 day period. Both advertise a different pattern than we currently have BUT GEFS has the boundary south of us (muted SE ridge) while EPS is Feb 2018.

Wonder which suite has been more accurate this winter to date.

The EPS is identical to the GEPS at day 15. The GEFS is on its own. The main difference between the GEPS and GEFS is the tropical convection. The GEFS is slower moving the forcing east from the IO than the GEPS. So the GEPS and EPS have more of a -PNA in late February with the convection closer to the Maritime Continent. 

8103DD17-9D15-4E31-8E17-C21B6FBBBF74.thumb.png.b33500797f9d4e866af16a12508b2363.png

 

 

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is identical to the GEPS at day 15. The GEFS is on its own. The main difference between the GEPS and GEFS is the tropical convection. The GEFS is slower moving the forcing east from the IO than the GEPS. So the GEPS and EPS have more of a -PNA in late February with the convection closer to the Maritime Continent. 

8103DD17-9D15-4E31-8E17-C21B6FBBBF74.thumb.png.b33500797f9d4e866af16a12508b2363.png

 

 

 

I have noticed the eps following the gefs this whole winter with the MJO. I wonder if this is the case here again or a legit warmup will be on the way.

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS is identical to the GEPS at day 15. The GEFS is on its own. The main difference between the GEPS and GEFS is the tropical convection. The GEFS is slower moving the forcing east from the IO than the GEPS. So the GEPS and EPS have more of a -PNA in late February with the convection closer to the Maritime Continent. 

8103DD17-9D15-4E31-8E17-C21B6FBBBF74.thumb.png.b33500797f9d4e866af16a12508b2363.png

 

 

 

Thanks. If the EPS is correct, I wonder if it's a short 2 week RNA or something more static.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Sleet fest on the UWS ground whitening. Even mangled flakes 

It's crazy how a northerly wind can keep it all snow just north of you. In Riverdale the bx it's 29f with snow. Cold air still coming down the Hudson Valley..my temp has dropped a degree too with a nne wind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Eps is still getting a little crazy with forcing near Indonesia late in the runs. Gefs isn't really doing that. Not nearly as dramatic at least. Holds on to the split forcing look longer. Lots of spread amongst the eps members with this. With some really going overboard still in that area. But also some others more gefs like. It'll be interesting to see what happens there. I'm pretty confident the weeklies will be a torch today. Being based on the 00z eps. Still low confidence for end of the month for me. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...